In speech from Egyptian airbase, Pres Sisi hints at possible Egyptian direct intervention in Libya. Claims that - if ordered - intervention would be based on Egypt's right of self defence and Arab national security. This is no longer just a veiled threat, it is actually explicit. https://twitter.com/SimNasr/status/1274361413771894784

This is alarming. As far as I recall, it is first time Egyptian officials make explicit mention of intervening in Libya. They did not do it in 2011 (granted, Cairo was suffering its own upheavals at the time); nor in 2015 when ISIS beheaded 20 Egyptian nationals; nor in 2019 war.

It is clearly a reaction to Turkish and GNA's statements regarding their intention to move into Central Libya and reclaim control of oil-rich areas. Egypt fears Turkish advances into Eastern Libya and security repercussions in East and beyond.

Pro-GNA personalities who have been pushing for Turkish/GNA advance into Sirte, Jufra and beyond, in past few days have brushed aside threat of Egyptian reaction claiming Cairo is paper tiger and is no match for Turkey's army. They want to call Egypt's bluff.

Yet, Egypt today signals that it perceives itself and its army as having the means to intervene. Perceptions matter. This could get messy. Immediate de-escalation is necessary to avoid further internationalisation of the conflict.