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So, I spent the last week or so studying the numbers from the 2019 Comm’s & Gov’s Cup, just to see if there was any statistical evidence to the claim that imports get a little more latitude from officiating. Draw from it your own conclusions, but numbers don’t lie. A thread:
Fouls per 48 Mins
Locals: 4.71
Imports: 3.41
Considering how high the rate of involvement is for imports on both sides of the ball (just see imports’ average rebounding numbers), getting 25% less fouls called on them is more than happenstance. Factor in minutes played too.
Locals: 4.71
Imports: 3.41
Considering how high the rate of involvement is for imports on both sides of the ball (just see imports’ average rebounding numbers), getting 25% less fouls called on them is more than happenstance. Factor in minutes played too.
Free throw attempts per 48 mins:
Locals: 3.83
Imports: 9.34
Understandable, given how high import usage rate is. But it’s a chicken and egg argument isn’t it? If I’m a coach, and I know the import goes to the line 3 times as much as a local, I’d run most things through him too.
Locals: 3.83
Imports: 9.34
Understandable, given how high import usage rate is. But it’s a chicken and egg argument isn’t it? If I’m a coach, and I know the import goes to the line 3 times as much as a local, I’d run most things through him too.
FGAs per 48 mins
Locals: 15.9
Imports: 23.9
Related obviously to previous point. More shot attempts lead to more fouls baited and more free throws attempted. Not surprising at all. But factor this and the FTA numbers and apply them to this next point:
Locals: 15.9
Imports: 23.9
Related obviously to previous point. More shot attempts lead to more fouls baited and more free throws attempted. Not surprising at all. But factor this and the FTA numbers and apply them to this next point:
FT Trips per scoring possession
Locals: 9.3%
Imports: 14.3%
Alright bear with me here. This is where the FTA and FGA per 48 numbers become important: In the course of a game, each team will have a certain number of possessions during which they score at least one point...
Locals: 9.3%
Imports: 14.3%
Alright bear with me here. This is where the FTA and FGA per 48 numbers become important: In the course of a game, each team will have a certain number of possessions during which they score at least one point...
The %s show that a local will score at least 1 FT, on average, each 11th possession. An import will do the same on each 7th poss. That’s not much right? Except there are 13 locals to get that FTA each 11th scoring possession & only ONE import to get the same FTA each 7th poss.
When we equate the scoring possessions for all players, and run al the above numbers through the basketball stat machine, we now see that imports are about 35% more likely to get a call from the refs than the locals.
Thirty-five percent more likely.
Thirty-five percent more likely.
The high usage rate, the many offenses that much more deliberately run through imports show that PBA coaches are aware of this advantage and are taking advantage of it. Why wouldn’t they? Take what you want from the stats but I think they speak clearly for themselves.
So when someone suggests that PBA coaches aren’t tactically complicated, it’s not necessarily an insult. It’s an observation of how PBA coaches have adapted to the league they’re in. Why complicate things when there is a simple, direct line to earn 35% more calls in your favor?
So maybe if some people weren’t too quick to get offended, you’d realize you were actually being paid a compliment for finding the most efficient way to take advantage of the situation the league has put you in.
Long story short, as the great poet Shawn ‘Jay-Z’ Carter once said..
