Read on Twitter
What's the likelihood of an outbreak in Tulsa after the Trump rally? We don't know. Probably high.
What we know is that the likelihood of at least one person with #COVID entering that arena is 100%. [1/5]
What we know is that the likelihood of at least one person with #COVID entering that arena is 100%. [1/5]
Over the last 20d, ~6k ppl have tested positive in Oklahoma (~4M pop). That means at least ~0.15% of all ppl in Oklahoma are infected right now.
The likelihood that one of them is #COVID19 free? 99.85%. With 19,000 ppl, the likelihood that ALL are free is 99.85%^19,000=0% [2/5]
The likelihood that one of them is #COVID19 free? 99.85%. With 19,000 ppl, the likelihood that ALL are free is 99.85%^19,000=0% [2/5]
On average, ~30ppl will be infected in the BOK arena (0.15% of 19,000).
They will be close to each other, for hours, screaming, singing, laughing, likely without masks. [3/5]
![On average, ~30ppl will be infected in the BOK arena (0.15% of 19,000).They will be close to each other, for hours, screaming, singing, laughing, likely without masks. [3/5]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea8AdgFUYAA1ISw.jpg "On average, ~30ppl will be infected in the BOK arena (0.15% of 19,000).They will be close to each other, for hours, screaming, singing, laughing, likely without masks. [3/5]")
They will be close to each other, for hours, screaming, singing, laughing, likely without masks. [3/5]
It reminds me of the South Korea super-spreader event in a church that looks like this. [4/5]
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-prevent-seeding-and-spreading-e84ed405e37d
![It reminds me of the South Korea super-spreader event in a church that looks like this. [4/5] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-prevent-seeding-and-spreading-e84ed405e37d](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea8BFuNUYAAeBlX.jpg "It reminds me of the South Korea super-spreader event in a church that looks like this. [4/5] https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-prevent-seeding-and-spreading-e84ed405e37d")
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-prevent-seeding-and-spreading-e84ed405e37d
It ended up infecting ~6k people. That was with just one seeder. [5/5]
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
![It ended up infecting ~6k people. That was with just one seeder. [5/5] https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ea8Bz47U0AAXY7N.jpg "It ended up infecting ~6k people. That was with just one seeder. [5/5] https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html")
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html
