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A few charts to assess the backdrop for $gold
Top pane - gold vs UST 5yr real yield (2yr regression shows R^2 at 0.904)...
Middle - 5yr breakevens (blue) vs 5yr nominal yields
Lower - Aggregate $ value of bonds with negative yield
Gold continues to trade as a zero coupon bond
Top pane - gold vs UST 5yr real yield (2yr regression shows R^2 at 0.904)...
Middle - 5yr breakevens (blue) vs 5yr nominal yields
Lower - Aggregate $ value of bonds with negative yield
Gold continues to trade as a zero coupon bond
Volmatrix
Upper - Gold 1 week implied vol - 1 year vol - no signs of expected ST explosive move
Middle - 25d 1m riskies - 1m call vol trades at a 1.6vol premium to puts.. neutral
Lower - 6m riskies - neutral
No signs of euphoric conditions at all despite gold testing upper range
Upper - Gold 1 week implied vol - 1 year vol - no signs of expected ST explosive move
Middle - 25d 1m riskies - 1m call vol trades at a 1.6vol premium to puts.. neutral
Lower - 6m riskies - neutral
No signs of euphoric conditions at all despite gold testing upper range
CFTC managed money (futures only) - 105k net long - just under the average (blue) from start of 2000. All pretty neutral
Daily chart...through downtrend resistance, but needs to clear horizontal supply zone c $1750.. if we see that next week, then consider positioning and sentiment is very neutral and trend in real yield is lower.
Failing that, gold in GBP seems to be the weakest link
Failing that, gold in GBP seems to be the weakest link
