Read on Twitter
As I’ve said in the past, while the media typically only reports overall approval vs disapproval, the spread between the “strongly’s” is often more telling.
1/ https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1274085607531261960
1/ https://twitter.com/gtconway3d/status/1274085607531261960
When I used to do consumer research, it was typical to ask questions along something like a 7-point scale rather than the 2- or 4-point scale of approval polls.
“Respond to each of these using a scale of 1 to 7 with 1 being ‘strongly disagree’ and 7 being ‘strongly agree’.”
2/
“Respond to each of these using a scale of 1 to 7 with 1 being ‘strongly disagree’ and 7 being ‘strongly agree’.”
2/
The two ends of the scale told you something.
The middle was considered “weak sentiment” and told you little.
So, to predict future behavior, you’d keep top-two and bottom-two responses and ignore the lukewarm middle three.
3/
The middle was considered “weak sentiment” and told you little.
So, to predict future behavior, you’d keep top-two and bottom-two responses and ignore the lukewarm middle three.
3/
Those people are going to do what their sentiment predicts.
If they love it, they’re going to keep buying it.
If they hate your product, they ain’t buying it.
And no amount of money is going to convert the haters.
4/
If they love it, they’re going to keep buying it.
If they hate your product, they ain’t buying it.
And no amount of money is going to convert the haters.
4/
Instead, you’d spend your money trying to convert the folks in the lukewarm middle.
The problem for Trump is that he has a “target audience size” problem.
21% of people strongly approve of him.
49% of STRONGLY disapprove.
So, 70% of the population are “unreachables”.
5/
The problem for Trump is that he has a “target audience size” problem.
21% of people strongly approve of him.
49% of STRONGLY disapprove.
So, 70% of the population are “unreachables”.
5/
That leaves 32% of the population in the squishy middle... to overcome a 28-point deficit.
If the people with strong sentiment vote as expected (strongly approve vote for him; strongly disapprove vote against) Trump would need to carry 87% of the remainder to break even.
6/
If the people with strong sentiment vote as expected (strongly approve vote for him; strongly disapprove vote against) Trump would need to carry 87% of the remainder to break even.
6/
And that just doesn’t happen.
An incumbent at -28 in strong sentiment isn’t just bad.
It’s apocalyptic.
These numbers are panic-inducing for vulnerable Rs.
It’s going to be an interesting summer.
7/7
An incumbent at -28 in strong sentiment isn’t just bad.
It’s apocalyptic.
These numbers are panic-inducing for vulnerable Rs.
It’s going to be an interesting summer.
7/7
My numbers were wrong in the second to last one there.
30% of the population left to make up a 28-point gap.
If the strongly’s broke 49-21 like they poll, Trump would need to carry 94% of the folks with squishy feelings about him.
30% of the population left to make up a 28-point gap.
If the strongly’s broke 49-21 like they poll, Trump would need to carry 94% of the folks with squishy feelings about him.
And let me just drop in one comparison for perspective...
Bernie Sanders: At the height of his popularity, only around 40% of the population had either a strongly favorable *or* strongly unfavorable opinion of him.
Usually there are more people in the middle than on the ends.
Bernie Sanders: At the height of his popularity, only around 40% of the population had either a strongly favorable *or* strongly unfavorable opinion of him.
Usually there are more people in the middle than on the ends.
70% of the population having strong sentiment about a candidate one way or the other is an historically massive number.
Highest in at least 40 years.
A lot of the cake is baked and there isn’t a lot of batter left...
Highest in at least 40 years.
A lot of the cake is baked and there isn’t a lot of batter left...
