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<Thread> I'm grateful to @EvansRyan202 for publishing this piece. The @WarOnTheRocks editors always make my articles better.
But, since Ryan cut my original conclusion based on the film, "The Princess Bride," I now present a thread on strategy & the scientific method w/ GIFs. 1/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1273928681069699072
But, since Ryan cut my original conclusion based on the film, "The Princess Bride," I now present a thread on strategy & the scientific method w/ GIFs. 1/ https://twitter.com/jimgolby/status/1273928681069699072
In the film, the Princess Bride, the man in black demonstrates excellent strategy in action. Our hero challenges the Sicilian criminal, Vizzini, to a battle of wits to the death and for custody of Princess Buttercup. 2/
The man in black informs his opponent he has filled a glass with iocane powder. Where the man in black has placed the poison is unknown to Vizzini, who must choose a glass from which to drink. 3/
The ensuing monologue illustrates both Vizzini’s dizzying intellect and a fundamental challenge of strategy: interaction with a thinking opponent who is attempting to imagine and anticipate your beliefs and actions. 4/
Despite the Sicilian’s best attempt to anticipate and defeat his challenger’s strategy with a sophisticated “made you look” gambit, it is the man in black who prevails. For he had spent years developing immunity to iocane powder and he had placed the poison in both chalices. 5/
In this scene, the man in black applied the scientific method to implement effective strategy. 6/
He first attempted to approach Vizzini, thinking he could defeat the smaller man with force. His hypothesis was quickly proven wrong. Vizzini used his control over Buttercup to threaten the man in black’s most important priority. 7/
The man in black then attempted to negotiate, thinking he could incentivize his opponent to relinquish control. Again, his revised theory was wrong. But, in this instance, Vizinni revealed new information: he was intelligent and, potentially, arrogant. 8/
The man in black again revised his hypothesis, this time challenging his unsuspecting opponent to a battle of wits, using Vizzini’s arrogance against him to place him in a no-win scenario. 9/
The man in black thought strategically throughout his interactions with Vizzini, but it was not until his third attempt that the man in black finally identified a strategic plan that provided him the advantage he required to defeat his adversary and rescue the princess. 10/
A strategic, social scientific mind prepared the man in black to rapidly discard flawed theories of influence and adapt a new strategic plan when evidence proved his approach was not working. 11/
His success did not come quickly or easily. The man in black had spent years as an apprentice to the Dread Pirate Roberts, developing his skills and his immunity to iocane powder so that one day he could return for his love. 12/
PME programs produce many officers who can develop plans. Often, these officers can even develop theories of victory. But strategically-minded officers must understand that strategy is fundamentally about iterative interaction with thinking people and groups. 13/
To meet the Joint Chiefs’ intent, professional military education programs should develop officers who can adapt theories based on new evidence and changed circumstances. 14/
Like the man in black, joint officers need practice to be successful in future warfare and to develop the skills and capabilities today that will enable them to out-think other actors tomorrow. 15/
PME programs organized around social science education – supplemented with readings in history, philosophy, & other fields – practiced through performance-based exercises, are the best way to develop strategists who will be prepared for future warfare. 16/
Thanks for sticking with it. @EvansRyan202 was probably correct to encourage me to cut this part, but it still was fun to write. 17/17
