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1/7 A thread on a fascinating essay by Yun Sun on Beijing's view of India & the current crisis, which should be required reading for Indian officials dealing with China & for analysts.
"China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash" @WarOnTheRocks https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/
"China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash" @WarOnTheRocks https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/
2/7 I can't speak to how accurately it represents China's views, I am not a Sinologist, but @ananthkrishnan who actually knows China, seemed to hint it is valid as far as Beijing's views goes, though lot's of contradictions internal to these views.
3/7 It appears to confirms 3 points I've argued before:
1. According to the logic of Beijing's view as represented here, India & everyone else have only 2 choices: acquiesce or fight.
1. According to the logic of Beijing's view as represented here, India & everyone else have only 2 choices: acquiesce or fight.
4/7 2. China's strategy towards India, in strategic terms, is one of containment. China wants India confined to South Asia. This means, again, Sino-Indian conflict, at its roots, has little to do with specific Indian actions or behavior.
5/7 3. And because of all of the above, what I’ve written of as India’s evasive balancing & @Sushantsareen has characterized as ‘riding on two horses’ . . . is an unviable strategy for India. China just won't believe India is not balancing China. Applies for others too.
6/7 2 more points:
First, the level of paranoia revealed here is incredible. It explains China's simultaneous attack on many countries. Of course, it is also self-fulfilling, but is at the same time problem for everyone else, cause the choice is, again: acquiesce or fight.
First, the level of paranoia revealed here is incredible. It explains China's simultaneous attack on many countries. Of course, it is also self-fulfilling, but is at the same time problem for everyone else, cause the choice is, again: acquiesce or fight.
7/7 Finally, one doubt: she says the Ladakh confrontation was not premeditated by China. But all the reasons she mentions for the confrontations seems well above the pay-grade of a local commander. It suggests Beijing's concerns, so this seems odd.
