Now that Florida is back in the corona limelight it's probably time to take another dive into the numbers. A new addition to the data set is "median age" by day and county which helps a tremendous amount when trying to assess risk of hospitalization and mortality.

(Thread)
The by-county numbers are important. From Mar 1 to about May 20th Miami/Broward/Palm Beach were 60% of the cases yet only represented 30% of the state's population.

They now represent 50% of total case loads which says that new positives are happening outside of SE FL
It can mean a few things.

1) Testing capacity has now ramped up outside of SE FL. FL is testing 50% MORE than it was 30 days ago and the median age of new positives in most counties is dropping as well.

2) Virus is spreading outside of SE FL (which was to be expected).
So let's look at the Major metro areas. Dade, Broward, Hillsborough and Duval. That's where Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville are respectively.

The median age of population of these places are
Miami 40
Broward 41
Hillsborough 36
Duval 37

https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/aging-florida
So let's look at the Major metro areas. Dade, Broward, Hillsborough and Duval. That's where Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville are respectively.The median age of population of these places are Miami 40Broward 41Hillsborough 36Duval 37 https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/aging-florida
So let's look at the Major metro areas. Dade, Broward, Hillsborough and Duval. That's where Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville are respectively.The median age of population of these places are Miami 40Broward 41Hillsborough 36Duval 37 https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/aging-florida
So let's look at the Major metro areas. Dade, Broward, Hillsborough and Duval. That's where Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville are respectively.The median age of population of these places are Miami 40Broward 41Hillsborough 36Duval 37 https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/aging-florida
So let's look at the Major metro areas. Dade, Broward, Hillsborough and Duval. That's where Miami, Ft Lauderdale, Tampa, and Jacksonville are respectively.The median age of population of these places are Miami 40Broward 41Hillsborough 36Duval 37 https://www.bebr.ufl.edu/population/website-article/aging-florida
A couple things stand out.

-Ages are dropping across the board (see 1st tweet)
-Tampa/Jax never really had a 1st wave
-If median age continues to stay below 40, which is lower than May, then hospitalization rates should stay low (see 1st tweet).
Lets take a peak at some other counties that have seen notable increases. Collier, Lee and Sarasota county are where Naples Ft Meyers And Sarasota are. Large areas in SW FL with median ages of 50, 47, 56 respectively. So very much older than the 4 main metro areas.
Lets take a peak at some other counties that have seen notable increases. Collier, Lee and Sarasota county are where Naples Ft Meyers And Sarasota are. Large areas in SW FL with median ages of 50, 47, 56 respectively. So very much older than the 4 main metro areas.
Lets take a peak at some other counties that have seen notable increases. Collier, Lee and Sarasota county are where Naples Ft Meyers And Sarasota are. Large areas in SW FL with median ages of 50, 47, 56 respectively. So very much older than the 4 main metro areas.
Lets take a peak at some other counties that have seen notable increases. Collier, Lee and Sarasota county are where Naples Ft Meyers And Sarasota are. Large areas in SW FL with median ages of 50, 47, 56 respectively. So very much older than the 4 main metro areas.
Even after we go into the "older" counties where average age is 35% higher than the metros the median average age of test subjects is still in the low 30's.

Below is a median age by county map for those who are visual.
Why is this important? Because we know for a fact who is at high risk of hospitalization and death. So if most of Florida's new positives are in a lower age bracket, which seems to be the case state wide, then your rate of hospitalization & death drop dramatically
55% of FL's deaths have come from nursing homes 1,637. 80% of FL's death come from those 65+ years old. And we know that hospitalization rates for <44 years old is <9%.

Pt being - if median ages hold this shouldn't stress hospitals nor substantially increase mortality rates
this is why that hospital officials aren't freeking out as their ICU's fill up with non-corona patients (elective surgeries). If the median age of positives increases to early April levels then they will prob cut off elective surgeries and clear beds https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-hospitalizations-central-florida-20200614-vxrk2t3hdjgcrmt6pyqtdl3r5a-story.html
Hospital bed usage exceeds 80% in Orange and Seminole, but officials say no cause for concern yet

More than 80% of general and ICU beds were in use Sunday at Orange and Seminole county hospitals, and health officials say that even though the number of hospitalized coronavirus patients are...

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-coronavirus-hospitalizations-central-florida-20200614-vxrk2t3hdjgcrmt6pyqtdl3r5a-story.html
More data that brain dead morons like @Agtrader21 refuse to read.

Broward, Hillsborough all saw an increase in cases on Friday w/ a decrease in median age. Dade's age up ticked by 1 year.
More data that brain dead morons like @Agtrader21 refuse to read. Broward, Hillsborough all saw an increase in cases on Friday w/ a decrease in median age. Dade's age up ticked by 1 year.
More data that brain dead morons like @Agtrader21 refuse to read. Broward, Hillsborough all saw an increase in cases on Friday w/ a decrease in median age. Dade's age up ticked by 1 year.
More data that brain dead morons like @Agtrader21 refuse to read. Broward, Hillsborough all saw an increase in cases on Friday w/ a decrease in median age. Dade's age up ticked by 1 year.
More data that brain dead morons like @Agtrader21 refuse to read. Broward, Hillsborough all saw an increase in cases on Friday w/ a decrease in median age. Dade's age up ticked by 1 year.
Even after a week of increased cases and increased visits Dade County has seen a drop in hospital admissions.

Broward & Hillsborough admissions still at or below where they were last month. Duval has seen a small spike but still well below April when older ppl were getting sick
Even after a week of increased cases and increased visits Dade County has seen a drop in hospital admissions. Broward & Hillsborough admissions still at or below where they were last month. Duval has seen a small spike but still well below April when older ppl were getting sick
Even after a week of increased cases and increased visits Dade County has seen a drop in hospital admissions. Broward & Hillsborough admissions still at or below where they were last month. Duval has seen a small spike but still well below April when older ppl were getting sick
Even after a week of increased cases and increased visits Dade County has seen a drop in hospital admissions. Broward & Hillsborough admissions still at or below where they were last month. Duval has seen a small spike but still well below April when older ppl were getting sick
Even after a week of increased cases and increased visits Dade County has seen a drop in hospital admissions. Broward & Hillsborough admissions still at or below where they were last month. Duval has seen a small spike but still well below April when older ppl were getting sick
Collier & Sarasota Counties all similar. Lower age of positive tests no spike in hospitalization. Lee's age of positive is going down but % of admissions is creeping higher. These counties are highlighted because the avg age of the population is 45-55.
Collier & Sarasota Counties all similar. Lower age of positive tests no spike in hospitalization. Lee's age of positive is going down but % of admissions is creeping higher. These counties are highlighted because the avg age of the population is 45-55.
Collier & Sarasota Counties all similar. Lower age of positive tests no spike in hospitalization. Lee's age of positive is going down but % of admissions is creeping higher. These counties are highlighted because the avg age of the population is 45-55.
Collier & Sarasota Counties all similar. Lower age of positive tests no spike in hospitalization. Lee's age of positive is going down but % of admissions is creeping higher. These counties are highlighted because the avg age of the population is 45-55.
Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach/Hillsborough/Orange/Pinellas/Duval represent about 51% of the State of FL's Population.

Round out this thread w/ Palm/Orange/Pinellas but it's all the same narrative for all these counties. Lower media age of positives no spike in hospitalizations
Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach/Hillsborough/Orange/Pinellas/Duval represent about 51% of the State of FL's Population. Round out this thread w/ Palm/Orange/Pinellas but it's all the same narrative for all these counties. Lower media age of positives no spike in hospitalizations
Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach/Hillsborough/Orange/Pinellas/Duval represent about 51% of the State of FL's Population. Round out this thread w/ Palm/Orange/Pinellas but it's all the same narrative for all these counties. Lower media age of positives no spike in hospitalizations
Miami Dade/Broward/Palm Beach/Hillsborough/Orange/Pinellas/Duval represent about 51% of the State of FL's Population. Round out this thread w/ Palm/Orange/Pinellas but it's all the same narrative for all these counties. Lower media age of positives no spike in hospitalizations
This is a reminder because it seems like most of you have forgotten the whole "lockdown" was so we wouldn't overrun our hospital systems.

We know now who is most at risk of death & who's at risk for hospitalizations. These stats say the positives are in neither of these groups
To apply the same logic in June as you are in February like morons such as @Agtrader21 assume that absolutely ZERO has been learned about a virus that has touched over 4 BILLION people in that time frame. That level of cognitive dissonance is a pure sign of idiocy.
example, In Feb everyone assumed that ventilators were the only way to save people. By April docs had realized that Vents were causing 2 much pressure in the lungs & killing more than they were saving. So they switched to High flow O2 and CPAP machines. https://news.yahoo.com/doctors-think-ventilators-might-harm-covid-19-patients-174426969.html
Doctors think ventilators might harm some COVID-19 patients

A global debate has emerged among doctors treating COVID-19: When should patients who need help breathing be placed on ventilators -- and could intubation do some people more harm than good? It's one...

https://news.yahoo.com/doctors-think-ventilators-might-harm-covid-19-patients-174426969.html
In Feb everyone thought whoever got Covid would be sure to die because the data out of China and Italy was so opaque.

Well we now know that's not the case. In fact Covid is even MORE selective on who it hospitalizes & kills than influenza https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-26/italy-says-96-of-virus-fatalities-suffered-from-other-illnesses
Italy Says 96% of Virus Fatalities Suffered From Other Illnesses

The coronavirus outbreak in Italy has struck overwhelmingly among the nation’s older population and those with preexisting medical conditions, according to the national health authority.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-26/italy-says-96-of-virus-fatalities-suffered-from-other-illnesses
All of this is clearly seen in the FL data. As age drops so does rate of hospitalization and death.

This isn't April '20 ppl. We have WAY more data and have a much better way of handling things than we did then. This sentiment has been echo'd by Dr Birx multiple times.
Perfect visualization that shows that even though as a country the corona positives have not really swayed from 25,000/day hospitalizations and deaths have been in a precipitous drop. The FL data reaffirms this statistical fact.

https://twitter.com/daddylongballz/status/1274448268936859649?s=21 https://twitter.com/daddylongballz/status/1274448268936859649
Man if @Agtrader21 saw this chart he'd spill all of his meth on his lap....

Higher cases are not translating into higher hospitalization. Once the case is reported it's usually 5 days after the test so we should be seeing hospitalization increase

https://twitter.com/whelanh1/status/1274342904161583104?s=21 https://twitter.com/whelanh1/status/1274342904161583104
Another day another record cases in Florida. But it's the same story as the last few days - median ages low (in some places sub 30yr old) % of hospitalization static to lower.

Miami broward Palm Beach and Hillsborough (Tampa).
Another day another record cases in Florida. But it's the same story as the last few days - median ages low (in some places sub 30yr old) % of hospitalization static to lower. Miami broward Palm Beach and Hillsborough (Tampa).
Another day another record cases in Florida. But it's the same story as the last few days - median ages low (in some places sub 30yr old) % of hospitalization static to lower. Miami broward Palm Beach and Hillsborough (Tampa).
Another day another record cases in Florida. But it's the same story as the last few days - median ages low (in some places sub 30yr old) % of hospitalization static to lower. Miami broward Palm Beach and Hillsborough (Tampa).
Another day another record cases in Florida. But it's the same story as the last few days - median ages low (in some places sub 30yr old) % of hospitalization static to lower. Miami broward Palm Beach and Hillsborough (Tampa).
Now the older counties in SW FL. Same thing. Many cases, a lot of young people, no spike in hospitalization rate.

Collier Lee Sarasota and Duval (Jacksonville which is a younger population but major metro area).

Nothing new or alarming here. Happy Father's Day!
Now the older counties in SW FL. Same thing. Many cases, a lot of young people, no spike in hospitalization rate. Collier Lee Sarasota and Duval (Jacksonville which is a younger population but major metro area). Nothing new or alarming here. Happy Father's Day!
Now the older counties in SW FL. Same thing. Many cases, a lot of young people, no spike in hospitalization rate. Collier Lee Sarasota and Duval (Jacksonville which is a younger population but major metro area). Nothing new or alarming here. Happy Father's Day!
Now the older counties in SW FL. Same thing. Many cases, a lot of young people, no spike in hospitalization rate. Collier Lee Sarasota and Duval (Jacksonville which is a younger population but major metro area). Nothing new or alarming here. Happy Father's Day!
Now the older counties in SW FL. Same thing. Many cases, a lot of young people, no spike in hospitalization rate. Collier Lee Sarasota and Duval (Jacksonville which is a younger population but major metro area). Nothing new or alarming here. Happy Father's Day!
Good press conference by DeSantis yesterday. Reiterated all the data available.

If you're commenting on FL corona virus and don't bother to look at the FL DOH data or listen to the press conferences then you're just an idiot.
Interesting theory. Heat + outdoors helps retard corona transmission. That is a fact. But what about places where it's too hot to do group activities outside like FL TX AZ right now and A/C'd environments are the only ones people seek out?

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1274900169881014272?s=21 https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1274900169881014272
Would actually mean that come Oct as flu season heats up TX AZ and FL could see corona basically non existent?

A/C is not common in Europe or even South America that much. Could explain the literal inexistent transmissions there as temps rose.
Updated the FL charts I hadn't used in the last month.

First chart is cases 2nd chart is hospitalizations. Even though case load has basically tripled in the month of June hospitalizations are sell below May levels so the "younger age of new positives" seems to be holding.
Updated the FL charts I hadn't used in the last month. First chart is cases 2nd chart is hospitalizations. Even though case load has basically tripled in the month of June hospitalizations are sell below May levels so the "younger age of new positives" seems to be holding.
Updated the FL charts I hadn't used in the last month. First chart is cases 2nd chart is hospitalizations. Even though case load has basically tripled in the month of June hospitalizations are sell below May levels so the "younger age of new positives" seems to be holding.
3 week change in positive test distribution across age demographics.

Growth in positive cases has STRONGLY been in the <44 year old crowd. June one they were 42% of ttl cases and today they are 52% of ttl cases.

Maybe why hospitalization rates have been relatively neutral
Lastly, a chart with daily positives, daily hospitalizations, and % of daily positives being hospitalized. This isn't a perfect science as there is a lag between positivity and hospitalization but it does show that the shift in median age does matter.
Today's press conference reaffirms the data we are seeing. Even the doctors at Orlando health (Orange Co) are echoing this now.

https://twitter.com/jaycosttws/status/1275469279480160256?s=21 https://twitter.com/jaycosttws/status/1275469279480160256
Younger people testing positive in FL is showing up on the overall data set. The largest % growth in cases has been in the <44yr old category. This is driving down probabilities of hospitalization and death.
Decided to take a look at hospitalization stats for Miami (FL's hotspot)

Cases r avg/ing 400% higher than May, but hospitalization and ICU use is only up 30%. Still time for that to increase but really MDC hospital bed availability little changed from May even w/ higher cases
Decided to take a look at hospitalization stats for Miami (FL's hotspot)Cases r avg/ing 400% higher than May, but hospitalization and ICU use is only up 30%. Still time for that to increase but really MDC hospital bed availability little changed from May even w/ higher cases
Decided to take a look at hospitalization stats for Miami (FL's hotspot)Cases r avg/ing 400% higher than May, but hospitalization and ICU use is only up 30%. Still time for that to increase but really MDC hospital bed availability little changed from May even w/ higher cases
Decided to take a look at hospitalization stats for Miami (FL's hotspot)Cases r avg/ing 400% higher than May, but hospitalization and ICU use is only up 30%. Still time for that to increase but really MDC hospital bed availability little changed from May even w/ higher cases
From Mar - Middle of May Miami/Broward/and Palm Beach have represented 60% of the cases. Last week they were 50% of the cases. Today they represent only 48% of the cases. The tri-county area represents only 30% of the state's population.

So testing has grown outside of SE FL
We will know how this plays out in 3-5 days.

https://twitter.com/reason/status/1275917876634017795?s=21 https://twitter.com/reason/status/1275917876634017795
Florida cases began their spike on June 16th. That means people were tested on June 11th or earlier (5 day lag from test > report).

We are starting to see those waves of hospitalizations hit the tape. Yes, they are up, but not at the same % as we saw in May
Surely hospitalizations will continue to climb, but the question is at what rate? If it continues to lag cases as it is then the "younger getting sick" thesis holds.

7 day avg of deaths has flatlined but we are 2 weeks away from seeing hospitalizations change to deaths
As of yesterday Miami Dade Hospitals - the epicenter of FL's cases, still had plenty capacity as a whole.
We are starting to see the backlog of tests come to the forefront. 59,202 tests done I believe is a state record (don't quote me on that). With testing centers in Miami at capacity everyday this week look for testing #'s to stay stout.

The median age still below 35 years old.
The rate at which new cases are being found outside of the tri-county SE FL area continues to expand

At the start Miami/Broward/Palm Beach were 60% of the cases. Last week 50% of the cases. Now 46% of the cases. Mind you they r only 30% of state pop

https://twitter.com/MisterCommodity/status/1274026913980448769?s=20
State wide hospital admissions as a % of visits is still well below March levels when Deaths were spiking. Basically healthier people testing positive yet less need for hospitalization. Keep in mind we are 2 weeks removed from when cases reported last Wed were actually tested
State wide hospital admissions as a % of visits is still well below March levels when Deaths were spiking. Basically healthier people testing positive yet less need for hospitalization. Keep in mind we are 2 weeks removed from when cases reported last Wed were actually tested
State wide hospital admissions as a % of visits is still well below March levels when Deaths were spiking. Basically healthier people testing positive yet less need for hospitalization. Keep in mind we are 2 weeks removed from when cases reported last Wed were actually tested
State wide hospital admissions as a % of visits is still well below March levels when Deaths were spiking. Basically healthier people testing positive yet less need for hospitalization. Keep in mind we are 2 weeks removed from when cases reported last Wed were actually tested
You can follow @MisterCommodity.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
Those who think consciousness raising & movement building are disconnected, or even a distraction from electoral politics have not paid attention to the history of social change.In this thread, we
Read more
The 2020s will be known as the Remote Work decadeA few predictions of what is likely to emerge[ a thread ] Third Space: Office and Working from Home will
Read more
1/29: Have you ever had a concept explained to you that helps frame complex issues you’ve been wrestling with and opens your eyes to new possibilities? A concept that I
Read more
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.