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Threa - please read till the end.
This week we conducted a survey on the idea of Cape secession.
We were interested in gauging public opinion and hearing arguments to inform our own view on this issue.
After 1 615 responses, we took the survey down. Here are the reasons:
This week we conducted a survey on the idea of Cape secession.
We were interested in gauging public opinion and hearing arguments to inform our own view on this issue.
After 1 615 responses, we took the survey down. Here are the reasons:
(1) The survey seemed to play into a pro-Cape secession echo chamber rather than giving a good cross-section of the general public's views.
People opposed to Cape secession on SM ridiculed + shamed the fact that we were interested in the question rather than taking part.
People opposed to Cape secession on SM ridiculed + shamed the fact that we were interested in the question rather than taking part.
The result was that the survey responses exhibited statistically unlikely pro-secession bias, and the SM responses exhibited anti-secession bias.
The moral panic unfortunately meant we still don't have a good statistical idea of what the general SA and WC public thinks.
The moral panic unfortunately meant we still don't have a good statistical idea of what the general SA and WC public thinks.
(2) The responses also exhibited a strong racial bias. Just under 90% of the responders identified themselves as white or coloured.
Given that political views often correlate with race in SA, we hoped for a sample that was more demographically representative of the WC or SA
Given that political views often correlate with race in SA, we hoped for a sample that was more demographically representative of the WC or SA
(3) The longer we kept the survey open, the more it was costing us. We didn't think it prudent to keep the survey open given the fact that its usefulness was limited by factors (1) and (2).
The survey was useful for one thing though, and that was gauging Cape secessionists' motivations for wanting to secede, and what political values they believe should govern a hypothetical independent Cape.
Here's that graph:
Here's that graph:
This data shows that most people who entertained the idea of an independent Western Cape were (1) not motivated by ethnic nationalism and (2) would want to see the establishment of a liberal democratic state.
On the face of this data, it seems it is not enough to dismiss the Cape independence discussion as racism or apartheid nostalgia. It also means that the Cape independence movement is different to Inkatha's Zulu separatism and the Afrikaner Volkstaat movement.
So what is Progress SA's current thinking on this issue?
(1) We don't have a clear view on Cape secession but, given that the majority of Cape secessionists seem to espouse liberal democratic political convictions, we think this is an interesting debate.
(1) We don't have a clear view on Cape secession but, given that the majority of Cape secessionists seem to espouse liberal democratic political convictions, we think this is an interesting debate.
(2) We are in the process of drawing up a paper presenting arguments for and against Cape secession. This paper will be neutral and will aim to improve the quality of the debate by presenting the best versions of arguments for and against. It will be a platform for discussion.
(3) The majority of our members are not secessionists. The majority of our members are not scared of debating secession. Both things can be true at the same time.
Thinking about an idea does not mean you agree with it. It just means you're an intelligent, thinking person.
Thinking about an idea does not mean you agree with it. It just means you're an intelligent, thinking person.
(4) Debating ideas that are unpopular and even taboo help us get closer to the truth, and closer to the best ideas. And any debate that gets us closer to the nest ideas is a debate worth having. Anyone who believes a debate is not worth having is free to not take part in it.
Finally, don't trust anyone who says that being willing to hear arguments means you already agree with the other side. That's just a conspiracy pedalled by intellectually lazy people who don't want to do the hard work of defending their own views.
