Not a useful tweet at all - fear prompting. Obviously living in Arizona and being a physician I was curious about the data. The nuance is missing. Many in AZ are worried and deserve accurate approximations to what is going on.
#COVID19 https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1273047315121606661

Start with disclaimers - COVID-19 remains a serious situation and we all should contribute to its control. I believe when in public we should wear masks (not with your family?) and keep a safe distance and hand hygiene. This thread is not to minimize seriousness but stop scaring

The hospital systems are not full. There is capacity both in ICU beds and ventilators. Furthermore, there is significant flex capacity to expand. Will this be needed? We do not know, hope not, but as of now, there is capacity. When you see ICU% use do not assume is all COVID-19!

Here is the data on testing. Keep in mind AZ now reports both PCR and serology. Separate data available on the website. There is an increase in both testing and percent of positive cases.

The alarm is because of the new cases reported. But where are we in comparison to other states? Behind in many metrics- total cases, deaths, and per capita adjusted cases. The main concern is the rate of increase of new cases and the fraction of positives.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Most cases are in Maricopa Co., where Phoenix is. But if you look as per capita distribution there is a greater per capita in NE AZ, where many in the Navajo Nation have been affected. BTW many valley hospitals are assisting in the care of all in AZ.
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

A better metric is the hospitalization, ICU, and death rate. There is an increase in the number of cases hospitalized in AZ. There is an increase in the number of hospitalizations, but not as dramatic as the tone of the original Tweet would have led you to believe.

There is about a 50% increase in the use of ICU beds for COVID-19 from about 200 to 300. Again, not good, but far from what we, unfortunately, observed in NYC and Italy.

And we are not seeing a big increase in mortality. Some could point out we need more days to state stability but here is the latest data.

Now the stay at home order expired on May 15th. So is this the cause for the uptick? My hypothesis is not, based on some data I presume is playing more of a role. First, Google mobility data doesn't show a major uptick in activity since then.
https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-06-12_US_Arizona_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

One possibility is a nonchalant approach to reopening (going to packed bars and hugging friends! we saw the pics). People becoming comfortable might have lost the need for distance? We have seen many instances or large gatherings as well. Perhaps some of this is culprit, but...

It might be that in AZ the influenza effect (peak) in the winter is seen during the summer. While the flu thrives in winter months, when all are inside due to the cold, in AZ we are all inside in the summer to avoid the heat. Purple box shows days where temp >105 F

I think we might also be seeing a more likely increase in the younger and hence a lower effect on mortality. The greatest number of cases is in young adults. Also contrary to popular belief AZ is a younger state. We rank 36 in age.

So what is one to do:

- Love AZ and its sun!
- Avoid large crowds and gatherings.
- Stay smart - distance, wear masks, hand hygiene.
- Nuances and details are important.
- Never discount AZ!

Anyway, my hypotheses, take them or hate them, and I love this state!