Read on Twitter
My piece co-written with @TedNordhaus is now published in Foreign Policy!
We examine how the main drivers for pending nuclear phaseouts in Japan, Korea, Taiwan are longstanding pushes for political/economic reform that are today coming to a head. THREAD https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/17/nuclear-power-japan-south-korea-japan-fukushima-disaster/
We examine how the main drivers for pending nuclear phaseouts in Japan, Korea, Taiwan are longstanding pushes for political/economic reform that are today coming to a head. THREAD https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/17/nuclear-power-japan-south-korea-japan-fukushima-disaster/
In Japan + Taiwan, for instance, reformer political parties have opposed nuclear power since well before Fukushima. Facing dominant political establishments with strong industry ties, the adoption of anti-nuclear policy by opposition parties was relatively natural. (1)
In Taiwan, anti-nuclear movements and pro-democracy activists found common cause during the era of one-party martial rule by the Kuomingtang. (2) https://thediplomat.com/2018/03/taiwans-nuclear-dilemma/
Such historical engagement on issues like lack of democratic community input on Taiwanese nuclear projects of the time helps explain the Democratic Progressive Party’s anti-nuclear position today. (3)
In Japan, domestic nuclear power grew during a period of near-constant Liberal Democratic Party control of govt since 1950s. By the 1990s, the LDP was already effectively the only pro-nuclear party in Japan, even if it stayed electorally dominant. (4)
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2645007?seq=1
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2645007?seq=1
Certainly, public anxiety over nuclear power in the region has been elevated since Fukushima. However, popular majorities in Taiwan and Korea actually continue to strongly support domestic nuclear, and support has generally rebounded since 2011. (5) http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2018/08/694_253971.html
Korean nuclear attitudes differ in that Koreans were historically very supportive of nuclear pre-Fukushima. Since the accident and following a major scandal involving misconduct in the domestic nuclear safety oversight process, however, this soured for some time. (6)
Yet Korean nuclear might well have even weathered Fukushima without significant backlash, but the Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power scandal caused a major loss of faith and linked the nuclear industry to broader political issues of corruption and corporate influence. (7)
So where are things headed today? Taiwan is planning to phase out its nuclear - not because of popular demand, but simply because tensions with China highlighted by the Hong Kong crisis have catapulted the nuclear-opposed Dem Prog Party to power. (8)
Similarly, Korean president Moon Jae-in and the Democratic Party won a 2017 election in the wake of mass protests over economic policy and a major corruption scandal engulfing his predecessor. (9)
As the recent 2020 Korean election approached, the anti-nuclear Democratic Party’s position appeared tenuous… Then in the leadup to the election, the incumbent government masterfully handled the COVID-19 pandemic. (10)
This won them the most dominant electoral victory in the entire democratic history of South Korea, incidentally ensuring that a Korean nuclear phaseout may well remain official government policy. (11) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/south-koreas-ruling-party-wins-election-landslide-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
Meanwhile in Japan, the LDP and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe confront plummeting poll numbers and a major national election in Fall 2021. (12) https://twitter.com/observingjapan/status/1262394955055747078?s=20
Opposition parties in Japan have historically struggled to win national elections and keep political power. It’s unclear whether an LDP popularity slip could change that. (13) https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2019/09/27/commentary/japan-commentary/whats-behind-japans-political-stability/#.Xrw-cRNKiqA
However, Japan continues to confront both COVID-19 and a major economic recession (which occurred during a period of already stagnant domestic economic growth). On top, PM Abe has also committed recent political missteps. (14)
If an underdog opposition coalition somehow beats the odds to win the National Diet in 2021, the fall from power of Japan’s last pro-nuclear party will mean the end to plans to restart the country’s idled nuclear reactors. (15)
In summary, the fate of nuclear power across East Asia is being decided not by debate over the merits/drawbacks of nuclear itself, but by broader political factors at work that happen to decide nuclear energy policy. (16)
This has big climate implications. Korea + Japan + Taiwan collectively emit enough CO2 to fall in the top 5 emitting countries worldwide, between India and Russia. (17)
https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/country/TWN?pa=279&u=0&f=A&v=none&y=01%2F01%2F2017&ev=false
https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/country/TWN?pa=279&u=0&f=A&v=none&y=01%2F01%2F2017&ev=false
Nuclear has historically been the dominant source of clean energy in all three countries (and still is in Taiwan and Korea). Japan’s experience has demonstrated that taking nuclear offline generally means it gets replaced by fossil fuels. (18)
Unfortunately, none of the three countries have a good track record of meeting renewables goals to date. Taiwan is below half its intended 2020 renewables target. Korea confronts iffy resource quality and Japan dated grid infrastructure (19)
Realistically, the fate of nuclear power will likely strongly influence the region’s climate footprint for the foreseeable future. The best win for climate would be to retain + expand domestic nuclear while simultaneously building renewables. (20)
Advanced reactors have a potential to shift the political calculus here. Inherent safety features would be very attractive for allaying public concerns, while the greater flexibility of small modular reactors could better fit increasingly competitive E. Asian power markets (21)
Yet currently, the future of nuclear energy hangs very much in the balance in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan.
And it might well be decided by broader political trends and geopolitical events, rather than by dedicated conversations about nuclear in their own right. (END)
And it might well be decided by broader political trends and geopolitical events, rather than by dedicated conversations about nuclear in their own right. (END)
