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An update on Montana's COVID economy. Using CPS microdata, MT's unemployment rate was 8.2% in May. This is 3.1pp improvement over April. Note, for a variety of reasons the unemployment rate from the microdata differs slightly from the official rate. 1/n
Given some of the challenges COVID creates for measuring unemployment. Here's the share of the labor force currently at work (i.e., not absent or unemployed). Relative to 2019, the pct of labor force at work declined by 11pp in April and 9pp in May. 2/n
Based on the CPS, all of MT's decline in the share of people at work stems from increases in the share of people temporarily unemployed and increases in the share of people absent from their job. The share of MT's labor force unemployed and looking for a new job is unchanged. 3/n
A few days ago, @JedKolko suggested tracking "base unemployment" (unemp. - temp. unemp.). These data suggest no change in MT's base unemployment. People think their jobs haven't disappeared. They just not at work. Are they right? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/upshot/jobless-rate-misleading-virus.html
According to the Census' Small Business Pulse Survey, approx. 80% of MT small businesses are still reporting at least a moderate negative effect on business. 5/n
Looking forward, 10% of small business do not expect their business to return to levels of a year ago (this share rises to 20% in accom & food service). In MT, 40% expect it to take more than 6 months for business to return to 2019 levels. 7/n
Workers are more optimistic. According to @COVIDImpact, 11% of people at least marginally attached to the labor force think it unlikely that they will be employed in 3 months. Only 4% of Montanans in (or at the fringes of) the LF think it unlikely they will have a job in 3 mos.
Nationally, a Bloomberg analysis argues that about 1/3 of current job losses are permanent (i.e., the job will disappear and the person who used to hold the job will need to find a new one). 9/n https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-14/millions-of-jobs-could-be-permanently-lost-in-reallocation-shock
Of course, it is too early to tell what share of losses are permanent vs. temporary. We still do not know what will happen with the virus or what will happen with economic policy. Those two variables (which we have lots of control over) will determine what actually happens. 10/n
Finally, any economic changes since late April have not changed HH conditions much. The HH pulse survey shows stable levels for share of MT HH experiencing lost income (40%), food insecurity (7%), housing insecurity (14%), and delaying medical care (40%). https://www.census.gov/data-tools/demo/hhp/#/
