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- Weekly Update June 17th@RaoulGMI #COVID19
It took only seven days to go from 7 to 8 million global cases and 36 days to double from 4 to 8 million...
Global daily new cases are near an all-time high (I realise that it is quite a short data series to use that term) ...
... but as the base number (8 million total cases) increases, it appears that daily growth in percentage terms is flat, averaging 1.8% in June...
Total deaths will likely reach the 500,000 milestone in the next ten to twelve days...
... and has been kind of flat since the end of May...
... averaging 1.08% growth in daily deaths in June...
At this stage, Covid-19 is rather like an supertanker following its route and, like an supertanker, it will take some time to change its trajectory. With this in mind, we can anticipate the path going forwards using the average daily growth as a starting point.
Applying a similar consistent daily growth to now (1.8%), we would reach 40 million global cases by September 15th...
Please note that, this is not a model nor a forecast, this is only a potential trajectory based on average daily growth...
Please note that, this is not a model nor a forecast, this is only a potential trajectory based on average daily growth...
The same process can also be applied to suggest the global deaths’ trajectory. Again, based on similar growth to now, we would reach 1.1 million deaths related to Covid-19 by September 15th...
China is tightening lockdown in specific areas around Beijing to contain new clusters:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/beijing-lockdown-tightens-as-new-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/15/beijing-lockdown-tightens-as-new-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads
Meanwhile in Singapore, they reported the least cases since April 8th ...
South Korea is averaging 43 new cases per day...
... while Japan is averaging 53 cases per day...
In Indonesia, daily cases are trending...
... as they also are in India...
In Europe, we are at D-14 until borders reopen, but averaging 2,600 daily cases...
Yesterday, Germany saw an uptick in daily cases with 570, the most cases reported since May 29th...
While the UK is one of the only countries in Europe averaging more than 1,000 cases daily...
... along with Sweden...
In the US, they are averaging 21,500 daily cases outside of New York and New Jersey...
... with Florida reporting a big jump...
Ditto for Texas...
... and Arizona...
Nearly 50% of daily cases are coming from only five states...
Daily deaths have been declining...
... bringing the total number of deaths related to Covid-19 to 116,000 so far...
Applying the same trajectory concept used earlier, we can anticipate the path for the US. In June, daily growth is averaging 1.1% and, using this as a starting point, here are three potential paths for the US...
... the daily growth in deaths is averaging 0.7% in June; if growth remains unchanged the US would cross the 200,000 mark by the same date...
I repeat, this is not a model nor a forecast, this only illustrates a potential trajectory based on current average daily growth...
I repeat, this is not a model nor a forecast, this only illustrates a potential trajectory based on current average daily growth...
In South America, new daily cases are averaging more than 40,000 each day...
... bringing the total number of cases up to nearly 1.5 million...
Brazil being the hotspot...
... followed by Colombia...
... and Argentina...
Meanwhile, daily cases are trending in the Middle East...
Likewise, for daily deaths...
Saudi Arabia is the hotspot with the most daily cases in the Middle East...
... although in Israel, daily cases are slowing increasing...
