An impressively thorough paper with the best evidence to date on the causal impact of various policies adopted in the CARES Act, from Chetty, @John_N_Friedman, @nhendren82 and others.
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
https://opportunityinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/tracker_paper.pdf
A clear discontinuity in spending after households got their stimulus checks. A lot of people were skeptical that there would be any spending out of checks in the midst of lockdowns, that skepticism appears to be unwarranted. Looks a lot like "normal" stimulus.
No evidence for any effect of PPP on employment. This surprises me because even though I'm a PPP skeptic I would have expected a noticeable effect in the short run, but squint and you can't see it.
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1268936224124829702?s=20
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1268936224124829702?s=20
Finally, they show how important "real" time analysis is for policymakers, especially now. Later this month the govt will release data for income and spending in *May*. We desperately need to know what is going on today. Their excellent website helps. https://tracktherecovery.org