1) House and Senate Democrats don’t like the police reform bill introduced today by Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC). But will Democrats allow the Senate to start debate on the measure – even if they don’t like the legislation?

Four important words here: “The Motion to Proceed.”

2) In the Senate, most legislative items are subject to “debate.” The Senate mostly has unlimited debate on most subjects. Up for debate is the “motion to proceed” to a given bill. “Debatable” means that something is subject to a filibuster.

3) That means, Democrats, or anyone could conceivably block the Senate from beginning debate on the Scott bill, via a filibuster.

4) However, there’s a way to overcome that. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said today he would file “cloture” to end debate on the motion to proceed to the bill and overcome a possible filibuster.

Filibusters end if the Senate cobbles together 60 yeas for cloture.

5) But here’s where McConnell is “daring” Democrats to block the bill. McConnell knows Democrats may not like the Scott plan. But will they block the Senate “proceeding” to debate on the legislation? They could, if Democrats don’t provide votes to overcome a filibuster.

6) There are 53 GOPers in the Senate. Senate Republicans need at least seven Democrats to help them get to 60 yeas, “invoke cloture” and break a filibuster.

7) Here's how “invoking cloture” works.

Senate Rule XXII (22) deals with cloture & ending filibusters. McConnell says he will file cloture on “the motion to proceed” to the police reform bill today. By rule, the Senate cannot vote immediately on cloture and break the filibuster

8) Cloture petitions need an “intervening day” to “ripen” and be available for a vote.

So, if McConnell files cloture today, cloture on the motion to proceed on the police bill would not “ripen” until Friday…unless there was an agreement to vote on the issue earlier, say Thurs

9) What this really means is that the Senate will probably vote MONDAY to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed to the police reform bill. But that could always change if there’s an agreement between the sides to start earlier.

10) So, here is the gambit by McConnell: He's daring Democrats to filibuster the motion to proceed and not provide the necessary votes to launch debate. McConnell’s point is that Democrats may not agree with the bill.

11) But he believes Democrats should at least permit the Senate to begin debate on police reform. If Democrats don’t, Republicans will boomerang this issue on Democrats – arguing that they blocked police reform from even coming up in the Senate.

12) By the same token, Democrats may find blocking the bill advantageous politically. They can assert that the Scott bill was insufficient and that Republicans weren’t willing to author a police reform bill with teeth.

13) Democrats are mindful of the polls which indicate President Trump could have a challenging path to re-election..and Democrats could flip control of the Senate.

14) Democrats may feel it’s advantageous to hold out on the issue of police reform politically going into November – and try to move the measure they want next year…with a potential Democratic Senate and “President Biden” if the political winds blow their way.