A lot is being said on the current crisis on our Eastern front, but not on the possible why and again history possibly could hold a clue.

The CCP is not blind to the threats a conflict with India poses, including a threat the India could take the kinetic option, so why? https://twitter.com/SudsG4/status/1273066326328610817

1/n to understand this, one needs to look at how various Chinese empires handled the Northern Nomads. It was a carrot and stick approach that the empires followed. The Han and the Xiongnhu being the exception as it was a total war scenario.

2/n of particular interest in this context (of Ladakh) was whenever an empire was threatened by strong western Chinese powers, it usually mustered a strong but brief expedition, the objective here being to cow down a possible but weaker threat

3/n a strong punitive expedition usually followed a "regime change" with a new tribal boss taking over, as a client state, or at least as a pacified ally. This was done by giving gifts and titles.

4/n this secured a front for the Empire, allowing it to focus it's energies and armies on other larger threats.

In this context with rising sabre rattling with the US, the UK and Australia raising their own sabres, a mounting trade war are much larger threats to China

5/n the message to India was to stay in its appointed role, as a secondary power, one that the middle kingdom grants its favours on. The fly in the ointment here is India decided to match Chinese build up, and while China backed down in Doklam, it could not again, FACE is a

6/n important concept in China and the leadership can't lose face. The stick done, we can expect the carrots to flow. Here it comes

https://auto.hindustantimes.com/auto/news/china-s-great-wall-motor-signs-mou-with-maha-govt-to-invest-1-billion-41592294142846.html

A $1bn investment, announced by Great Wall Motors. And that's just the start

7/n what should India do? Take a leaf from the Chinese playbook, it swallowed it all in the 80's and 90's, America boarded a sovereign Chinese flagged vessel through proxies (Yinhe incident), bombed the embassy in Serbia, got its captured pilots (Hainan Island) freed

8/8 As Cicero said, "nervos belli, pecuniam infinitam" or "the Sinews of War, endless money"

India now only needs to focus on building it's economy and if it means we court Chinese FDI, so be it. To paraphrase Seng Zhiaoping, the colour of the cat not impt, as it catches mice