A few thoughts and things to keep in mind as the UN Security Council votes and Canada finds out if it wins one of 2 seats. Competition is Ireland and Norway.

#CanadaUNSC #UNSCelections #UNSC #cdnpoli #cdnfp https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/1273231566429278208

On the campaign, Canada spent much more than Ireland (almost $2 million), but significantly less than Norway. It started its campaign well after both competitors did so, around the time that Trudeau became PM. Most successful campaigns run around 10 years.

It's a curious election, because on core issues, Ireland, Norway, and Canada are very similar: relatively small nations with a significant impact on international relations. There haven't been any true wedge issues. They would all be productive members of the UNSC.

But on core issues where they are similar, their levels of commitment differ. Norway and Ireland both provide more international aid (important to many states) and contribute more to peacekeeping. Canada hasn't budged on this. Its numbers are dismal given its wealth and rhetoric.

Canada also has a number of fractious relationship with states and blocs of states. It's not clear how Trudeau's trip to Africa went and I have not known Canadian relations with states on the continent to be especially cozy over the last 5 years.

European states will almost certainly vote in favour of Ireland and Norway, out of European solidarity. Even states like Australia, upset at Canada's position in recent TPP negotiations, are unlikely to support Canada. One country that should vote for Canada: #SaudiArabia. Ugh.

It has not been clear what Canada's campaign platform is. It's not aid or human rights or peacekeeping. It has shifted with government leaders prevaricating. Most recently it was equal economic development (with no aid-to-GDP ratio promises). It has also been our Covid response.

That's a shame, in my view: the #UNSC seat bid was not only an opportunity for the government to run an effective campaign, but design a coherent foreign policy. We don't have one but we need one. See @thomasjuneau on this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-will-pay-the-price-for-neglecting-our-foreign-policy/

Canada's best asset is a remarkable UN Ambassador. That matters a lot because people want to work with Blanchard. They see him as someone they can work with. And somewhere around a third of states vote in UNSC elections on the basis of what ambassadors, not capitals think.

His team is excellent. It's important to remember that the foibles & flaws of the government in Ottawa are not the foibles & flaws of our diplomatic corps. They've been very impressive, with seemingly little effective direction from Ottawa. At least that's how it looks.

What will happen today? Most analysts say it's an exceedingly and unpredictable race. Norway seems like a shoe-in and the race between Ireland and Canada is too tight to call. But Canada wins, it owns a ton to the scrappy work of our diplomats. It's their win, not Ottawa's.