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The #Massachusetts #COVID19 infection numbers are steadily improving, but not as rapidly as they once were. I'll explain in a few tweets below.
Standard disclaimer: I'm not an MD, MPH, or other medical professional. If you have expertise to help shape this thread, please add it!
Standard disclaimer: I'm not an MD, MPH, or other medical professional. If you have expertise to help shape this thread, please add it!
I believe net hospitalization is the best data to understand the forward-going danger of COVID-19. Num infected has little use when testing isn't broad and symptoms aren't always apparent. % positive isn't much use when tested population isn't random and selection bias evolves.
We care about the major harm of COVID; when people are really sick they go to the hospital and are tested (mostly!), so net hospitalization is a robust number. A 7-day average because Wed is *always* a bad day. 7-day-avg always includes 1 Wed so no day-of-week skew.
If you hate people being sick, you like the orange line below 0 -- that means more people left the hospital than entered. Keep in mind that there are two ways to leave, and one is tragic. But from a public health perspective, neither is infectious or requiring acute care.
Did masks help? The trend was clear before masks, and during the first few days after masks, but the trend continued well after masks were ordered.
Did Phase 1 slow the net hospitalization reduction? Hard to say. The numbers bounced up almost immediately after Phase 1 began. My sense is that hospitalization shouldn't have responded that quickly, but perhaps both noise, Phase 1, and something else all contributed.
Are the post-Phase 2 data showing an uptick or is it just noise? Will another 7 days of data increase understanding of the trend?
The current net change is ~-50. That means that wrt COVID, about 50 more people have been leaving hospitals than entering each day. If that trend continues, our hospitalization will go from 1,045 to 0 in exactly three weeks. Big if -- reopening could add to net hospitalization.
Still reading? This is my motivational speech portion. Wear your mask when outside your home. Avoid spending long periods indoors away-from-home. Avoid super-spreader events like crowds eating, drinking, singing, or shouting. Wash your hands and face with soap, often. Respect 6'.
*Still* reading? There's a primary on Tue September 1. Loads of candidates, loads of races, all are important. Start researching now -- US Senate and, depending on where in MA you are, US House, county offices, and MA House & Senate. Research who's running, start picking faves.
