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So here goes...
The 1st of 4 threads on political attitudes in @ARK_info NI Life&Times Survey #nilt2019 #NILifeTimes @UKandEU
This one is on *Brexit & Irish Unity*
TL;DR: #Brexit means differences between Unionism & Nationalism aren't just about aspiration but expectation.
1/7
The 1st of 4 threads on political attitudes in @ARK_info NI Life&Times Survey #nilt2019 #NILifeTimes @UKandEU
This one is on *Brexit & Irish Unity*
TL;DR: #Brexit means differences between Unionism & Nationalism aren't just about aspiration but expectation.
1/7
The slight majority see #Brexit as having made a United Ireland more likely.
But the absolute majority see it as making no difference to when they're in favour of a UI.
Decline since 2018 in those thinking Brexit makes a UI less likely (10%) & makes them less in favour (12%)
2/7
But the absolute majority see it as making no difference to when they're in favour of a UI.
Decline since 2018 in those thinking Brexit makes a UI less likely (10%) & makes them less in favour (12%)
2/7
There are interesting party differences here, which fall not so much on unionist/nationalist lines as pro-Remain/Leave.
Majority of SF, SDLP & Alliance supporters believe Brexit makes Irish unity more likely.
For SDLP this = a 25 point & SF an18 point increase since 2018.
3/7
Majority of SF, SDLP & Alliance supporters believe Brexit makes Irish unity more likely.
For SDLP this = a 25 point & SF an18 point increase since 2018.
3/7
Does this change people’s minds on whether they want Irish unity or not?
Unionists say Brexit makes no difference to their views; Nationalists are saying that it makes them more in favour.
Interesting to compare results with those who are Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.
4/7
Unionists say Brexit makes no difference to their views; Nationalists are saying that it makes them more in favour.
Interesting to compare results with those who are Neither Unionist nor Nationalist.
4/7
2018/19 = big year of change here.
4/10 Alliance supporters say Brexit makes them more in favour of Irish unity
Huge rise in SF & SDLP being more in favour of UI
DUP moving away from being ‘less in favour’ to saying it makes no difference
UUP quite unchanged.
5/7
4/10 Alliance supporters say Brexit makes them more in favour of Irish unity Huge rise in SF & SDLP being more in favour of UIDUP moving away from being ‘less in favour’ to saying it makes no differenceUUP quite unchanged.5/7
We are past the stage where #Brexit is just a concept.
It is now the context.
It is a minority position in NI to think Brexit makes a United Ireland less likely or to be less in favour of it as a result of Brexit.
This adds a certain frisson to #Brexit NI policymaking...
6/7
It is now the context.
It is a minority position in NI to think Brexit makes a United Ireland less likely or to be less in favour of it as a result of Brexit.
This adds a certain frisson to #Brexit NI policymaking...
6/7
More threads to follow....
But I just want to take this opportunity to pay particular tribute to @BenRosher for his Trojan work on this with me, which has been simply brilliant.
@GlasgowQStep @DtpNine @QUBSSESW should be rightly proud.
7/7
But I just want to take this opportunity to pay particular tribute to @BenRosher for his Trojan work on this with me, which has been simply brilliant.
@GlasgowQStep @DtpNine @QUBSSESW should be rightly proud.
7/7
