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Hello! Here's my daily thread on coronavirus stats globally.
Today:
The US: VP Pence denies there is a "2nd wave". The stats show that's a highly misleading way to think about what is going on.
Iran: Well into a second wave. (A lesson for the US?)
The UK: More good news.
Today:
The US: VP Pence denies there is a "2nd wave". The stats show that's a highly misleading way to think about what is going on.
Iran: Well into a second wave. (A lesson for the US?)
The UK: More good news.
The big picture: Big spike in deaths globally.
New cases heading to 150,000 per day, globally.
New cases heading to 150,000 per day, globally.
The US: VP Pence says there is no "second wave". Is he right? https://www.wsj.com/articles/there-isnt-a-coronavirus-second-wave-11592327890?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
No. The increase in new cases is not explained only by "more testing." Testing has been robust for a while.
Cases are increasing *because cases are increasing*. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fauci-warns-of-coronavirus-resurgence-if-states-dont-adhere-to-safety-guidelines-11592338771
Cases are increasing *because cases are increasing*. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fauci-warns-of-coronavirus-resurgence-if-states-dont-adhere-to-safety-guidelines-11592338771
Let's look at the stats ...
The US: New cases are trending up.
The US: New cases are trending up.
But deaths are still trending down.
The implied US death rate in that last chart is about 700 deaths per day, or 255,000 deaths a year.
Pence described that as "great progress" in his WSJ article.
Pence described that as "great progress" in his WSJ article.
California: New cases still rising.
But deaths are not following suit.
But deaths are not following suit.
Texas: Worst day yet for new cases - over 4K.
Deaths (lagging indicator) are holding steady.
Deaths (lagging indicator) are holding steady.
Florida: Worst day yet for new cases yesterday.
Like Calif and Texas, deaths not declining.
Like Calif and Texas, deaths not declining.
In US states where cases are up, deaths are holding steady. But they're holding steady at relatively elevated levels.
Contrast that with Europe, where economies are reopening *after* both cases and deaths went into solid declines.
Contrast that with Europe, where economies are reopening *after* both cases and deaths went into solid declines.
The NYT has a good summary of US states where the situation is deteriorating.
China: A recent outbreak in Beijing has put China back in the spotlight. Overall infection levels remain low but, as this chart shows, there remains a stubborn few hundred active cases in the country.
Brazil: expected to surpass the US in coronavirus cases and deaths by the end of July, according to the University of Washington. https://www.businessinsider.com/brazil-surpass-us-coronavirus-cases-deaths-end-july-2020-6?r=US&IR=T
Brazil: New cases hit a record high yesterday and seem to be heading to 40K per day. For comparison, US cases are at about 23K cases per day.
Deaths seem to be plateauing at 1000 per day.
Deaths seem to be plateauing at 1000 per day.
Iran: Is Iran in a second wave? A good story from the BBC shows how Iran reopened way too early. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52959756
Iran: Daily new cases are way up.
Iran: Deaths are heading upward again.
Iran: Deaths are heading upward again.
The increase in deaths is especially worrying — it shows that an unchecked 2nd wave does lead to an increase in deaths, not merely a halt in the decline.
In the US, deaths are at the "stubborn halt" phase. A widespread reopening would be flirting with the Iran situation.
In the US, deaths are at the "stubborn halt" phase. A widespread reopening would be flirting with the Iran situation.
Even if I am wrong, let's just pause for a moment to consider that we're comparing *the US* with *Iran* here, because we're worried about what happens when you end lockdowns before the infection has been reduced.
The UK: Big news - a drug that actually works against COVID: Dexamethasone. It is available already in hospital pharmacies and costs about 50p per day to administer. The caveat? It's effective if you're so bad you're already in the ICU. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/nhs-hospitals-urged-to-start-using-dexamethasone-after-dramatic-breakthrough-vp2mnw29b
The UK: Deaths still in decline, as are cases.
The deconfinement will test all this, of course, but so far the UK's grip on COVID has been impressive.
The deconfinement will test all this, of course, but so far the UK's grip on COVID has been impressive.
Others:
Spain: good
Italy: good
France: good
Germany: good
China: good
S Korea: good
Turkey: good.
Vietnam: good.
Japan: good.
NZ: Perfect.
Australia: Good.
Look up your own country at Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Spain: good
Italy: good
France: good
Germany: good
China: good
S Korea: good
Turkey: good.
Vietnam: good.
Japan: good.
NZ: Perfect.
Australia: Good.
Look up your own country at Worldometers. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
The US: More detail on the Southern states, via Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon, who has provided excellent data on the complicated US situation all along.
