"Mr 2nd-place" Kimmich Thread: Inspired by @ifoundthates idea of using simulation to understand if Kimmich is just unlucky, I ran some analyses to test the effect of position change on likelihood of winning PB for bronze/silver/gold days. Lots of caveats, but here we go: 1/5

First up - these are the distributions of winning PB scores with Kimmich removed. You can see how much harder it is to win Mid, especially on gold days with a big density of scores >250. 2/5

Kimmich implied midfield #footballindex scores (CS removed) have been trending higher with more consistency (partly why he hits that 2nd place so often) - this is a positive and worth tracking, but hard to extrapolate too much given confounding factors and limited data. 3/5

You can simulate the probability of him winning, by a basic #Bayesian approach of repeated sampling from his implied score distributions and then comparing it to the winning score distribution. You see a big drop off in likelihood of winning a #footballindex Gold day 4/5

You can then back out a value for him using those implied probabilities, expected games played, potential div rises and a career arc. This part still to be done, but from eyeballing the data, there's a significant difference in value of Def vs Mid, largely due to Gold Days. 5/5