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Putting my neck out there: here's my forecast for how CV plays out. This is based on a combination of press reports, gossip and, yes, wishful thinking. /1
On or just before July 4th the announcement is made to re-open pubs & restaurants at 1.0-1.5m distancing. Loose regulatory regime which leaves implementation up to the licensee. /2
Despite the fact that it leaves hospitality in an utterly invidious position in terms of the inability to plan, we'd still grasp it with both hands /3
I am also expecting an announcement on rents this week or early next, again at the last gasp before the June quarter date. Again, whatever relief it provides we'll grab it with both hands. /4
So when is @BorisJohnson's 'Macron-moment' when he declares victory over CV? I will go for Aug 15th (VJ Day) or just before. This would be accompanied by the further release of distancing and will allow all kids back to school in Sep /potentially live music/theatre etc. /5
Crucially, in my demi-fantasy, public transport is declared safe and able to operate to full capacity before end-Aug. All of these measures will allow the economic re-boot to commence Sep 1 and the return to some form of old (yes - old) normal. /6
It goes to show how beaten up and cowed we all are that most people I discuss this with think (i) it will never happen this quickly and (ii) say they'd be pathetically grateful if it did happen on this timetable /7
How do we get there? It isn't going to happen by itself. @BorisJohnson is holed up in No.10 watching the polls. They're telling him that the majority still want to stay indoors. Deaths and new infections will have to come down further, which thank God they seem to be doing... /8
Track & trace will have to have some semblance of credibility. Yesterday's announcement that the excess mortality in London is now at or below average will have to be replicated elsewhere. Crucially, no widespread evidence of a 2nd wave. /9
Crucially, we need to tell govt that we want to save jobs, re-open hospitality & schools ASAP when it's safe. My feeling is if we can do all of this by Sep 1 then we have a shot at avoiding a depression. /10
Even if this is achieved by Sep 1, the damage to livelihoods, physical and mental health and our ability to fund public services including the NHS will have been severe. But something about Sep 1 feels like a dreadful rubicon, beyond that date, for many reasons, disaster lies /11
The jury is still out on whether there will be a second spike in the Autumn/Winter - there seem to me to be credible arguments both ways. My hope is that we re-open the economy while being super-vigilant and prepared to protect the vulnerable and deal with isolated outbreaks. /12
Tragically, along the way, many businesses and jobs will have disappeared, especially in hospitality. It makes me angry that the crucial role we have to play in rebuilding communities, society and the economy seems to be taken for granted. /13
So come on @BorisJohnson, let's get some leadership, clarity and a plan to get this country and our sector restarted! /14
This is a heartfelt thread, not a long advertorial for @projectpint2020. However, if you agree with the above, one way to help is to sign our petition at https://www.change.org/FREETHEPINT .
