Michigan is one of the great swing states of America, and it’s also the largest state I have yet to tackle. Today, we’ll look at Michigan’s 1st district, which covers the upper tip of the “mitten” as well as all of the Upper Peninsula (which should belong to Wisc. if you ask me).

Back before politics was so divided on urban/rural, this district was a tossup. It went for Bill Clinton twice, George W. Bush twice, Obama once, Romney, and then Trump in 2016. Trump’s 21% victory in MI-01 was the only time anyone carried this bellwether by double digits.

Needless to say, Trump’s expansion of Romney’s 9% margin to 21% over Clinton was a major swing away from Dems. Pre-2016, Democrats used to have a unique brand in northern Michigan that kept them competitive—economically populist yet slightly socially conservative.

This was epitomized by Rep. Bart Stupak, a moderate Democrat who represented the district from 1993–2011. Stupak was famously anti-abortion; his proposed Stupak–Pitts Amendment to the ACA would have prevented the use of federal funds for abortions in the bill.

He cast several important votes. In 1993, he was one of 200 “no” votes on NAFTA, like many other midwestern Democrats. In 2002, he voted against going to war in Iraq. He also eventually voted for the ACA when Obama promised to bar money for abortions through executive order.

He was reelected to his final term in 2008, beating his Republican challenger by 32%. The Tea Party wave came swiftly and forcefully in 2010, and Stupak chose to retire rather than face a daunting fight. Republicans flipped his seat, winning it by 11%.

It’s remained in Republican hands, and its current representative is Jack Bergman (R–Watersmeet), who has served since 2017. The bulk of this area is solidly GOP now, and it will continue moving away from Democrats for a long time.

In her bid for reelection in 2018, Debbie Stabenow won only three counties in MI-01: Gogebic, Leelanau, and Marquette. Bergman’s 2018 opponent carried only the latter two, coming around 13% short of flipping this seat. The Democrats’ unique breed here exists no longer.

If Biden does make strides in Michigan from 2016 as many expect he will, it will be very interesting to see how he does in MI-01. He’ll probably gain strength in the suburbs—but will he do so in rural areas? Time will tell. Still, no matter what, he won’t win this district.