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As India and China disengage and pick up pieces of their fraught relationship strewn across the treacherous peaks of Galwan, Ladakh, some things may have changed irretrievably on the ground. Many assumptions have been shattered, old certainties most certainly destroyed.
New realities are struggling to raise their heads amidst broken pieces of an uneasy relationship that promised much, delivered little and now looks set to be changed irrevocably.
1) First casualty will be PM Narendra Modi’s attempts to make peace or have cordial relationship
1) First casualty will be PM Narendra Modi’s attempts to make peace or have cordial relationship
with China. No more Wuhan or Chennai spirits, no more playing nice to Xi Jinping and his cohorts. India is mourning, grieving, and may even be quietly planning revenge for its fallen martyrs. Bonhomie summits, especially with two leader walking around rock cut temples or taking
boat ride are definitely over. Indian public opinion will not allow it and PM Modi is too shrewd a politician not to realise how much this brutal scuffle at 14000 feet has damaged India-China relationships. Government to government talks at junior level can still take place and
there will these occasional meetings that will happen at foreign secy level but that will be all. Nothing more.
2) There will an Indian response. It wont be like Balakot of course but there will be one. Trade barriers will go up, Chinese companies will find it difficult
2) There will an Indian response. It wont be like Balakot of course but there will be one. Trade barriers will go up, Chinese companies will find it difficult
to do business in India and Huawei can kiss that 5G trials goodbye. Scrutiny of Chinese investments, FDI or FPI, will increase. Dont be surprised if some Indian promoters are quietly told to reduce influence of major Chinese investors in their promising start-ups. Some Chinese
companies may even get out if things get hostile. The trade surplus will shrink as a determined government goes all out to cut imports and make everything in India. 3) Military response. India wont escalate the matter but as @Somnath1978 points out LAC will become a live frontier
India and China will strive to beef up their presence and India especially would have learned from this episode never to trust the Chinese again. More troops, aifields, air landing grounds, more bridges, roads, infrastructure. India will move tonnes of heavy equipment, artillery
to the frontier and China will do the same. LAC will replace the LoC and the 38th parallel as the world’s most tense border.
4) Will India stay non-aligned? This is the big question of the day but tough to answer. Ideally, this incident along with others
4) Will India stay non-aligned? This is the big question of the day but tough to answer. Ideally, this incident along with others
in the past and China’s petulant and aggressive behaviour elsewhere should convince us to firmly embrace a closer and warmer relationship with America. This is what the US and Trump want and India will benefit from this. Any Chinese adventurism in future will be stopped dead
in the tracks and India can use the US security umbrella to focus on development and other essential expenditures. Nations like South Korea, Japan and Germany have prospered doing. There is little point in being emotional and dogmatic
about this. We as a nation need to become more clear-headed about this and the ghosts of the 1960s and 1970s should not imprison us and stunt our ability to acquire meaningful relationships.
5) Will Galwan affect Modi politically? Another important question. Difficult to answer
5) Will Galwan affect Modi politically? Another important question. Difficult to answer
till we know how this is going to end. A prompt and sturdy Indian response on the economy and geopolitics (like forging relationships with Taiwan) will help blunt some of the attacks. PM Modi is smart and he probably knows that he will have to answer opposition attacks on why his
overtures to China in Wuhan, Ahmedabad and Chennai have been returned with bullets and body bags of Indian soldiers. Balakot ensured Pulwama didnt do any political damage but the response to China will probably have to be different.
China should realise the rising costs of its reckless adventurism but one suspects that the country will want more. The popular mood will not relent. Blood for blood.
6) 2020 is not 1962. Fifty-eight years ago Indians were hurt, angry, humiliated and helpless.
6) 2020 is not 1962. Fifty-eight years ago Indians were hurt, angry, humiliated and helpless.
We trusted China and the Chinese backstabbed us. Beijing probably thinks India has not changed now and may be some Indians also think the same way. But we have indeed changed and the response to Galwan will be very different. As a nation, we are different. More confident, more
aggressive and more aware of our strengths and weaknesses. We may not be a superpower yet but we definitely know to take it on the chin and give as good as it gets. End
