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Is Florida experiencing a 'real' rise in cases — or just more testing?
It's very clear. The rise in cases is real & potentially dangerous.
See graphs below.
-->Left, rise in cases (via WashPost)
-->Right, rise in positive test rate (via JHU)
It's very clear. The rise in cases is real & potentially dangerous.
See graphs below.
-->Left, rise in cases (via WashPost)
-->Right, rise in positive test rate (via JHU)
2/ Cases in FL are rising, and yes, testing is rising — but cases are rising so much faster than the positive-rate of testing is rising.
Since the spike started May 28:
--> Cases up from 650 / day to 1,750 / day (2.7x)
--> Positive rate is up from 2.6% to 5.6% (2.1x)
Since the spike started May 28:
--> Cases up from 650 / day to 1,750 / day (2.7x)
--> Positive rate is up from 2.6% to 5.6% (2.1x)
3/ That's all happening as FL loosens stay-at-home rules & opens wider.
FL is finding more cases than ever — record-breaking days 3 of last 5 days. Today (Tue) will set another record.
If you rely on the data, & you look at the data, the data on FL is clear. And worrying.
FL is finding more cases than ever — record-breaking days 3 of last 5 days. Today (Tue) will set another record.
If you rely on the data, & you look at the data, the data on FL is clear. And worrying.
4/ Texas looks very similar to Florida—cases rising, testing rising, but positive rate also rising.
Not just 'more testing'—the virus is spreading. Not quite as dramatic as FL, but very clear.
Rise started May 26.
—> Cases up, 950 to 1,950 a day
—> Pos-rate up, 5.8% to 7.1%
Not just 'more testing'—the virus is spreading. Not quite as dramatic as FL, but very clear.
Rise started May 26.
—> Cases up, 950 to 1,950 a day
—> Pos-rate up, 5.8% to 7.1%
5/ Texas, like FL, is finding more cases than at any point in the pandemic.
Before spike started May 26, TX highest single day for new cases was 1,801 (5/16).
Since May 26, TX has had 7 days higher than that, including 3 days over 2,000 new cases a day (all in the last 6 days).
Before spike started May 26, TX highest single day for new cases was 1,801 (5/16).
Since May 26, TX has had 7 days higher than that, including 3 days over 2,000 new cases a day (all in the last 6 days).
6/ Arizona is just like Florida & Texas — except the rise in cases, alongside the rise in the positive rate, is even more dramatic.
Viral spread is out of control in Arizona.
The current rise started May 26.
Viral spread is out of control in Arizona.
The current rise started May 26.
7/ Here's how the numbers in Arizona have changed:
New cases / day (7-day average):
— May 26: 330
— June 15: 1,250
increase: 3.8x
Positive test rate:
— May 26: 7.5%
— June 15: 16.3%
increase: 2.2x
New cases / day (7-day average):
— May 26: 330
— June 15: 1,250
increase: 3.8x
Positive test rate:
— May 26: 7.5%
— June 15: 16.3%
increase: 2.2x
8/ When reopening began in Arizona on May 1 (6 weeks ago), the highest single day of cases in AZ was 446. That was the day before reopening, April 30.
In the last 14 days, the lowest number of new cases: 530 (Jun 4).
9 of the last 14 days are at least 2x that 446 cases.
In the last 14 days, the lowest number of new cases: 530 (Jun 4).
9 of the last 14 days are at least 2x that 446 cases.
9/ Arizona didn't have a dramatic pandemic period before reopening.
But it is creating one now. Graph again below.
But it is creating one now. Graph again below.
10/ Here's the somewhat sobering question about Florida, Texas & Arizona:
How does the viral spread slow down?
How do the graphs of new cases ever plateau — let alone start down?
If no new rules or practices are put in place, there is nothing to slow the coronavirus.
How does the viral spread slow down?
How do the graphs of new cases ever plateau — let alone start down?
If no new rules or practices are put in place, there is nothing to slow the coronavirus.
11/ The governors of those states — even if they don't want to reimpose stay-at-home rules — could at least be talking up safe practices, trying to keep the pace of spread in check.
Masks.
Hand-washing.
Avoiding crowds.
Social distancing.
This isn't all or nothing.
Masks.
Hand-washing.
Avoiding crowds.
Social distancing.
This isn't all or nothing.
12/ But even that is not happening, in those 3 states.
The University of Texas in Austin wants to re-open in August.
The University of Arizona & Arizona State want to re-open in August.
Hard to envision that, if the spread of the disease simply continues, or accelerates.
The University of Texas in Austin wants to re-open in August.
The University of Arizona & Arizona State want to re-open in August.
Hard to envision that, if the spread of the disease simply continues, or accelerates.
13/ Here's what's happening in a few more states that are sliding in the wrong direction:
• CA: new cases up 65%, testing is up, positive rate is steady
•Nevada: new cases double, testing up, positive rate rising
• N. Carolina: new cases double, testing up, positive rate up
• CA: new cases up 65%, testing is up, positive rate is steady
•Nevada: new cases double, testing up, positive rate rising
• N. Carolina: new cases double, testing up, positive rate up
