Increasing heat pump coefficients of performance drastically increase the cost effectiveness of heat pumps. The UK has a long way to go in terms of installed performance but with increases in skills and further technical development there is room for some optimism here (1/4). https://twitter.com/janrosenow/status/1272932628904251393

However, best performance requires low flow temperatures which requires efficient buildings and careful installs. UK experience has not been great, see @EnergySvgTrust field trials. Much of this was down to install/specification issues, not the actual appliances (2/4).

The @NatInfraCom heat modelling assumed sCOP of 2.5 reflecting prior experience. This clearly has a knock on for costs (lower COP =less heat out for your electricity in). We should be aiming for way better than that (3/4).

A bigger market, increases in skills, machine learning and remote monitoring could all help raise COPs. I'm waiting to get data for my system. Hope it's good! (4/4).