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Jack Snyder's 1991 book remains quite relevant today. He studied imperial overstretch as a result of domestic politics + the political & intellectual entrenchment of three myths, all based on the idea that "security can be safeguarded only through expansion." [short thread]
Myth 1: Gains & losses are cumulative. Conquest increases power, because it adds resources that can be used in further great-power competition. Vulnerable areas at the periphery must be acquired lest they fall into the hands of opponents.
Myth 2: The best defense is a good offense. Cumulative gains can be reaped through aggressive action. Passivity will bring cumulative defeats. The cheapest way to forestall cascading dominoes is to prevent the fall of the first one using a forward defense.
Myth 3: Threats make other states compliant. The adversary is a paper tiger, an implacable foe posing an immense security threat but also too weak, inert, or irresolute to combat aggressive countermeasures. Threatening behavior will attract allies and neutrals to bandwagon.
We won't know for a while, but eventually the domestic politics behind China's global behavior at this moment will be a very important subject of study. As also the extent to which there has been any learning based on the responses of various countries. /END
