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I’ve done a 180 on @Snapchat. I think they’ll be the most important US tech company within 10 years. 
Their Partner Summit moved me - not just because it was in AR or what they announced - but because of how everything they’re doing fits together.
Their Partner Summit moved me - not just because it was in AR or what they announced - but because of how everything they’re doing fits together.
I’m so excited about @Snapchat for a few reasons:
In the right spot of the Hype Cycle
@evanspiegel is a Worldbuilder
Strategic genius
They’re building mirrorworld!
The financial opportunity of becoming the next platform is massive.
In the right spot of the Hype Cycle @evanspiegel is a Worldbuilder Strategic genius They’re building mirrorworld! The financial opportunity of becoming the next platform is massive.
Snap has had a rough go of it since it IPO’d on March 2, 2017. Revenue has more than doubled, but the stock is still 13% off its IPO price.
So what’s happening with Snap? Just like Zack and Laney in She’s All That, Snap is going through the Gartner Hype Cycle.
Snap has gone through its own Hype Cycle. Two years after launching, with 350mm photos shared per day, @evanspiegel turned down a $3bn offer from @finkd. It IPO’d and hit a $39bn market cap 4 years later.
It hit $27.09 in the first two days of trading. 3 years later, that’s still its high. It hit a low of $4.99 in Dec 2018, a few months after @profgalloway declared it dead.
https://medium.com/s/no-mercy-no-malice/no-mercy-no-malice-the-end-of-snap-tesla-af4499558ce0
https://medium.com/s/no-mercy-no-malice/no-mercy-no-malice-the-end-of-snap-tesla-af4499558ce0
What happened? @Recode gave 4 reasons:
1. Slowing growth - slow to bring ads onto the platform
2. Increased Competition - Instagram Stories copied and blew by Snapchat
3. Losing Users - redesign angered fans, lost 3mm DAUs in Q2 18
4. Exec Departures - CFO, CSO & a bunch of VPs
1. Slowing growth - slow to bring ads onto the platform
2. Increased Competition - Instagram Stories copied and blew by Snapchat
3. Losing Users - redesign angered fans, lost 3mm DAUs in Q2 18
4. Exec Departures - CFO, CSO & a bunch of VPs
One of those angry fans was @KylieJenner. This tweet on Feb 21, 2018 tanked Snap’s market cap by $1.3bn in a single day! https://twitter.com/kyliejenner/status/966429897118728192
Where Snap was at the end of 2018 - in the Trough of Disillusionment - is where a lot of once-buzzy social apps have died. Remember Yo, MySpace, Path, Secret, Whisper, or YikYak?
At this point, living or dying comes down to whether the CEO is a Worldbuilder or Shotcaller.
https://notboring.substack.com/p/two-ways-to-predict-the-future
@evanspiegel is a Worldbuilder.
1. Non-obvious vision around the camera
2. Early wedge that people made fun of (sexting)
3. Time-stamped vision: https://twitter.com/lucy_guo/status/1271593254098579457
https://notboring.substack.com/p/two-ways-to-predict-the-future
@evanspiegel is a Worldbuilder.
1. Non-obvious vision around the camera
2. Early wedge that people made fun of (sexting)
3. Time-stamped vision: https://twitter.com/lucy_guo/status/1271593254098579457
This 2018 company-wide memo (and @TurnerNovak’s thread on it) is excellent. https://twitter.com/turnernovak/status/1048790251601313793
Snap kept its head down and kept building towards its vision. Now, it’s emerging on the other side. It’s hitting the Slope of Enlightenment.
Its Q1 earnings beat expectations with $462mm in revenue and 229mm DAUs. Stock shot up 37% in a day.
Its Q1 earnings beat expectations with $462mm in revenue and 229mm DAUs. Stock shot up 37% in a day.
Then it all came together in @Snapchat’s Partner Summit 2020. Check out @TurnerNovak’s write-up of the event here: https://turner.substack.com/p/snap-partner-summit-2020-recap-and
Two things got me excited:
1. Seeing the links between all of their products starting to come together in one grand plan.
2. They’re building mirrorworld, the AR world mapped 1:1 with the physical world described by @kevin2kelly: https://www.wired.com/story/mirrorworld-ar-next-big-tech-platform/
1. Seeing the links between all of their products starting to come together in one grand plan.
2. They’re building mirrorworld, the AR world mapped 1:1 with the physical world described by @kevin2kelly: https://www.wired.com/story/mirrorworld-ar-next-big-tech-platform/
This video about Local Lenses is the closest thing I’ve seen to mirrorworld since I read @kevin2kelly’s essay, and it got me pumped.
They’ve been building towards this. In 2016, @benthompson wrote Snapchat’s Ladder, describing it’s ladder-up strategy. First Snaps, then Stories, then Discover, then Feeds. https://stratechery.com/2016/snapchats-ladder/
It’s crazier than that. @Snapchat uses Amazon’s first and best customer strategy, building for itself first, then opening up the tools and tech to 3rd parties to build a platform.
@iamjohnimah ‘s presentation on Games shows Bitmoji’s internal & external reach. I tried to map it:
@iamjohnimah ‘s presentation on Games shows Bitmoji’s internal & external reach. I tried to map it:
The ladder-up strategy is most apparent in @Snapchat’s Camera and AR development. I call it @evanspiegel’s Camera Ladder.
Snap is putting its AR tech in hundreds of apps and millions of consumers’ hands. And they’re in the consumer sweet spot: old enough co to have a lot of users, and young enough users to use a brand new AR platform. They’re in the sweet spot.
Snapchat has more people in the US than Twitter and TikTok combined, and more 13-34 yos in the US than Facebook or Instagram.
Since @Snapchat isn’t designed for vitality, I had no idea how big they were from the outside.
Since @Snapchat isn’t designed for vitality, I had no idea how big they were from the outside.
They don’t need us olds. They just need to retain their current user base and keep adding younger users as they turn 13. In 10 years, they’ll have a massive user base.
I just touched on a few of the many, interconnected things @Snapchat is doing. They’re also building the first US super app with Minis, which @TurnerNovak points out is a huge opportunity: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovak/status/1272533636366114816
+ Snap Map, Local Business Listings, Voice Controlled AR, Snap Originals, Happening Now, Snap Kit and more 
. @Snapchat & @evanspiegel are pulling off one of the most complex strategies I’ve seen. It will be one of the most important companies in history. I’m inspired & long.
. @Snapchat & @evanspiegel are pulling off one of the most complex strategies I’ve seen. It will be one of the most important companies in history. I’m inspired & long.
If you want to check out the full piece, with even more analysis and gifs, you can read it here. I’d love to hear your thoughts on the piece and on @Snapchat 
https://notboring.substack.com/p/oh-snap-
https://notboring.substack.com/p/oh-snap-
