Thread by @jonworth, One of the things that seems important when assessing the easing of [...]

One of the things that seems important when assessing the easing of #COVID19 #Coronavirus restrictions is to give the population of a place a sense of how serious things are *there* just now, using data.

In this thread I start with

, look quickly at

, and conclude with

To give an example: Stralsund, a town I passed through by train yesterday, has had a story of a Catholic priest potentially spreading COVID around (not that I was going near Catholic churches there, but - in terms of assessment - you get the idea) https://cruxnow.com/church-in-europe/2020/06/german-priest-with-covid-19-celebrated-mass-in-several-towns/

German priest with COVID-19 celebrated Mass in several towns

German authorities say a Catholic priest who came into contact with many people during church services in several cities has tested positive for the COVID-19 virus.

https://cruxnow.com/church-in-europe/2020/06/german-priest-with-covid-19-celebrated-mass-in-several-towns/

But I can go to the Zeit website, check out the data for Vorpommern-Rügen (where Stralsund is), and see that things are still calm there

https://www.zeit.de/wissen/gesundheit/coronavirus-echtzeit-karte-deutschland-landkreise-infektionen-ausbreitung

In fact of the 401 Kreise (Districts) with data, there are only two - Coburg and Aichach-Friedberg, both in Bavaria - with problems

If I want more granular data for Berlin, I can get that from Tagesspiegel - https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/?tab=neuinfizierte&norm=dichte&utm_source=tagesspiegel.de&utm_medium=html-box-home&utm_campaign=corona

Berlin also has a kind of Corona Traffic Light system - with indices of how things are developing. Currently 2 green, 1 yellow on the lights - as R has edged above 1.

I can't find a good summary of this in English, but RBB has it in German here:
https://www.rbb24.de/panorama/thema/2020/coronavirus/beitraege_neu/2020/05/corona-ampel-infektionen-berlin.html

So what about France?

In typical French style, everything is broken down by Département

This site has a handy summary of all the indices: https://coronavirus.politologue.com/carte-de-france/

Not dissimilar to the Berlin system, there is a three indicator system from the Ministry of Health

Roughly translated as:
"Active circulation of the virus"
"Pressure on hospital resuscitation capacities"
&
"Test coverage rate"

Source: https://solidarites-sante.gouv.fr/soins-et-maladies/maladies/maladies-infectieuses/coronavirus/etat-des-lieux-et-actualites/article/indicateurs-de-l-activite-epidemique

Then to

The UK has its COVID Alert Level system, explained here:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884352/slides_-_11_05_2020.pdf

It was at Level 4 when it was introduced, but I can find no official info on what level it is now https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus

Coronavirus (COVID-19): what you need to do

Find information on coronavirus, including guidance, support, announcements and statistics.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/884352/slides_-_11_05_2020.pdf

Also I am not altogether sure how useful a national level is, when there are major regional variations, as documented by the Coronavirus data site for England:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=utlas&map=rate

That shows a rate per 100k inhabitants ranging from 500 in Gateshead to 88 in Rutland

Other sites have had a go at regional data - ITV can tell you cases by county (England) or health board (Wales), but not if the situation is worsening or getting better

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11/coronavirus-where-you-live-check-the-number-of-cases-in-your-area-with-our-interactive-map/

The Guardian has a falling or rising map for England by county, but this too is hard to use - as the counties very wildly in size. Herefordshire (cases up from 7 to 14) looks worse than Kent (up 187 to 204)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/12/england-are-coronavirus-cases-falling-or-rising-near-you

The Guardian also has a cases per 100000 of population map, but this one gives no idea as to *when* these cases were

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/13/coronavirus-uk-map-latest-deaths-confirmed-covid-19-cases

English data by Upper Tier Local Authority and Lower Tier Local Authority is available from the Government here, of course with the absurdity that unitary authorities appear in both lists https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate

Data tables for Scotland are here:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

It was hell to find, but Wales has *excellent* data here - see the tabs - also on *new* cases: https://public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public

Rapid COVID-19 virology - Public

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/

Meanwhile BBC offers data with a postcode search https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274

Overall though, this

picture leaves me mighty confused. Yes, there is masses of data, but not in any sort of format I could use to assess easing of lockdown, or to help inform a decision as to whether I should change my behaviour.

Making that assessment - down to the level of Germany's 401 districts, or at the level of the Département in France - looks to be a whole lot easier.

Now don't get me wrong - whether individuals can indeed assess the risk here, and sensibly act based on it, is an open question. But a resident of

or

can at least ask themselves that question and work out an answer. I am not sure someone in

,

or

can.

/ends

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