The Trump campaign decision to bump its Tulsa rally from June 19 to June 20 is so fascinatingly revealing ... 1/x

1) Those who complained about the June 19 rally date were complaining that there was something inconsistent about a Trump rally on an anniversary of Emancipation. You wouldn't expect Trump to agree to that - but he did!

2) Why would a presidency that never admits error, never accepts responsibility, never apologizes for anything - why would it back down in the face of complaints about a June 19 event?

3) I think you can safely rule out "regard for the feelings of others" as a motive.

4) But local authorities in Tulsa have pretty obviously began to sense - and fear - the possibility of large-scale disorder in their city. The mayor tweeted this June 11: https://twitter.com/gtbynum/status/1271167155891994627

5) The Trump of 2016 exploited disturbances as a political resource, proof of his theme of "American disruption." If it were true that Trump 2020 was replaying Nixon 1968, you'd expect him to welcome such scenes this year too. But no!

6) The Trump campaign is telling us:

It recognizes that disruptions hurt incumbents.

It recognizes that the crackdown in Washington DC on June 1 backfired.

It does not want a replay.

7) You might say, that seems obvious. What incumbent political campaign *would* welcome chaos? But to now, Trump has always welcomed chaos. He hoped that if split the country, he could claim the larger piece. (Or at least, the piece with the better grip on the Electoral College.)

8) This time, 2020, Trump's own people must be telling him that his divide-and-win tactics have bumped into hostile electoral math.

"American carnage" is a political attack for a challenger, not a political defense for an incumbent.

9) Clashes between police and protesters might excite the core Trump base. But such disturbances appall and repel other voters Trump needs. Worse ...

10) These clashes would not occur in downtown Chicago - where Trump cancelled a rally in 2016 https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/12/us/trump-rally-in-chicago-canceled-after-violent-scuffles.html - but in Tulsa, supposedly at the heart of Trump country.

11) Trump has to worry: what if the protests are huge? What if the police panic and hurt somebody?

He's confronting a responsibility he cannot dodge, at a time when his only political trick has ceased to work for him.

12) The rescheduling of the Tulsa rally is a reveal of weakness by a president who normally values the show of strength above all else.

The rescheduling confirms how fast Trump's strength is ebbing - and that he (or his campaign) knows it.

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