Hurray! New paper out today from @TyndallManc on shipping and climate change:

https://rdcu.be/b4QUS 

Can shipping make a fair contribution to keep warming below the Paris Climate Agreement 1.5 degree goal?

Thread…

1. We looked at CO2 emissions from ships going to/from EU ports in 2018, and calculated their lifetime emissions if they continue to be used as they are today, until they’re scrapped…

2.…and that’s a lot of pollution, because ships have a long life: nearly 30 years.

We compared this “committed emissions” value with what would be a fair contribution for ships going to/from EU ports to meeting the Paris 1.5 climate goal…

3.…unfortunately, these “committed emissions” take up 135% of this fair carbon budget. So that leaves less than *nothing* for all new ships

4.…and new ships are not likely to be zero emission at scale before 2030. So this is a problem!

Fortunately, committed emissions aren’t a given. There are many things we can do to cut emissions from existing ships…

(here’s a pic of my daughter’s school ship model :) )

5.…ships can go slower; this saves lots of energy...

6.…and ships can use old technology, in new ways. Flettner rotors use wind to cut the amount of energy a ship needs, like these retrofitted to a @Maersktankers vessel by @norsepowerltd

7.…and ships can optimise routing to use wind more effectively and save energy, the focus of research by co-author @jamesClimate

8.…and ships can plug into the electricity grid when they’re in port, rather than use their diesel engines, like they do in Los Angeles, Shenzhen and Hamburg.

9.…and they can retrofit to use zero-carbon fuels.

And that’s just *some* of the options.

10.Our paper shows that *IF* you take strong action to cut emissions from existing ships, *AND* go all-out for zero-emission new ships (hydrogen, ammonia, batteries, hybrids), *THEN* shipping can stay within a 1.5 carbon budget. It’s possible! So, what needs to happen? 3 things:

11.First, the @IMOHQ should tighten its “at least 50% cuts by 2050” target to net-zero by 2040: that’s compatible with the Paris 1.5 degree goal.

12.Second, the @IMOHQ needs to implement strong policies on *existing* ships, not just new ship energy efficiency standards. Progress on regulating slower-speeds is a priority.

13.Third, targeting policies at specific ship types. Our research showed that container ships have very high committed emissions, despite being one of the most efficient ship classes, because many of the very large ships are very new.

14.Our research shows the critical importance of measures to cut emissions from *existing* ships. Shipping can help meet the Paris goals, but we need strong, fast action.

Paper at http://rdcu.be/b4QUS 

Co-authors @JamesClimate @aliceclimate, @jf_broderick