Read on Twitter
A Lost Month - A long, lost month of financial and emotional suffering because of self-inflicted issues.
This is perhaps the biggest story not highlighted for its impact on the residents of Ontario.
This is perhaps the biggest story not highlighted for its impact on the residents of Ontario.
Missed cases (no contract tracing, no confirmation of positives) caused by hospital communication errors created thousands more community spread cases, led to outbreaks in Peel (Brampton) and Toronto (Etobicoke) near those hospitals.
Those outbreaks caused Ontario’s COVID-19 progress - and effectively a lost month - financial and emotional suffering - and a certain number of deaths.
Base articles to read:
CBC News (6/1): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-missed-telling-public-health-confirmed-cases-1.5593572
Toronto Star (6/3): https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/06/03/ontario-health-apologizes-after-485-positive-covid-19-tests-mostly-from-etobicoke-missed-being-reported.html
Base articles to read:
CBC News (6/1): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-hospitals-missed-telling-public-health-confirmed-cases-1.5593572
Toronto Star (6/3): https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/06/03/ontario-health-apologizes-after-485-positive-covid-19-tests-mostly-from-etobicoke-missed-being-reported.html
Two hospitals lost 485 cases. Each thought the other was reporting to the PHU. As a result the positive cases were not told they were positive and contact tracing did not being. Some of the 485 may have looked online for their results but some number of people never knew.
The key point here is that its not just the 485 cases - that is bad enough. Think of a COVID-19 infection as starting a fire in dry brush that quickly grows. As a result of this hospital error Ontario inadvertently planted 485 of those in the community.
Say you start with ONE of those. On average that one person may infect several others but let’s say it was low - just 1.5. (Recall the South Korea super spreader that spread to over 100 others - by ONE person).
A new generation of infection can happen every 5-7 days. I get it, I get infectious, give it to you, you get infectious and give it to someone else. Let’s say every 6 days.
The mistake cases were over about a month - some in April according to the article - over a month's time
The mistake cases were over about a month - some in April according to the article - over a month's time
Let’s do the very rough calculation of what that would mean in cases caused by one of those 485 - 30 days means 5 generations.
1 + 1*1.5 + 1*1.5^2 + 1*1.5^3 + 1*1.5^4 + 1*1.5^5 = 20.8
For every one person not contact traced that could mean 21 additional infections.
1 + 1*1.5 + 1*1.5^2 + 1*1.5^3 + 1*1.5^4 + 1*1.5^5 = 20.8
For every one person not contact traced that could mean 21 additional infections.
That’s a little over 10,000 new infections for the 485 positive cases - and anywhere from 100-200+ deaths.
Totally avoidable. Self-inflicted.
Totally avoidable. Self-inflicted.
Recall the curve of cases
We saw spikes in Ontario data starting around 5/14. Thos reported cases are the result of infections about 2 weeks earlier. When the lost cases started.
The data at the time told us that Peel and Toronto were driving growth of cases.
We saw spikes in Ontario data starting around 5/14. Thos reported cases are the result of infections about 2 weeks earlier. When the lost cases started.
The data at the time told us that Peel and Toronto were driving growth of cases.
To recover from this self-inflicted wound, the lockdown and restrictions have had to be kept on for roughly an extra month.
Terrible mistake. Huge impact. This can never, ever happen again.
Ontario Health said they take responsibility - we need answers.
Terrible mistake. Huge impact. This can never, ever happen again.
Ontario Health said they take responsibility - we need answers.
