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Keys to a Color Revolution:
1) A compromise candidate and a backup in case they get arrested
2) Public signaling of support in advance - thus the color
3) Independent election monitoring and vote estimation
4) Be prepared to capture and hold public spaces if results look weird
1) A compromise candidate and a backup in case they get arrested
2) Public signaling of support in advance - thus the color
3) Independent election monitoring and vote estimation
4) Be prepared to capture and hold public spaces if results look weird
1) A compromise candidate:
Competitive Authoritarian regimes rely on dividing the opposition, so you need a good-enough candidate that may not be exiting but alienates few in the opposition
Joe Biden is that. What we need now is the Green Party endorse Biden as their candidate
Competitive Authoritarian regimes rely on dividing the opposition, so you need a good-enough candidate that may not be exiting but alienates few in the opposition
Joe Biden is that. What we need now is the Green Party endorse Biden as their candidate
2) The Color
Competitive Authoritarian regimes rely on demoralization, making people feel their vote doesn't matter or is only symbolic
Public displays of a single color (blue) show other voters are with you, create unity and enthusiasm, and show you have a real chance to win
Competitive Authoritarian regimes rely on demoralization, making people feel their vote doesn't matter or is only symbolic
Public displays of a single color (blue) show other voters are with you, create unity and enthusiasm, and show you have a real chance to win
3) Independent vote monitoring
Competitive Authoritarian regimes try to cheat before the election by making rules and using government resources to benefit themselves
But if they are afraid they will use more direct cheating methods
Competitive Authoritarian regimes try to cheat before the election by making rules and using government resources to benefit themselves
But if they are afraid they will use more direct cheating methods
3a
There will be a lot of court battles over rules, but we need an army of election-day monitors. Most important for the GOP will be their "election monitors" in place to challenge minority voters, intimidating and frustrating them. Dems must have people on hand to counter those
There will be a lot of court battles over rules, but we need an army of election-day monitors. Most important for the GOP will be their "election monitors" in place to challenge minority voters, intimidating and frustrating them. Dems must have people on hand to counter those
3b
Secondary to that is exit polling to create an outside record of support in case it is necessary to challenge quick government results.
Less important in the US than Competitive Authoritarian regimes, but worth doing to counter the different goals of media exit pollsters
Secondary to that is exit polling to create an outside record of support in case it is necessary to challenge quick government results.
Less important in the US than Competitive Authoritarian regimes, but worth doing to counter the different goals of media exit pollsters
4) Be ready to take to the streets if it seems like they're trying to steal the election
Be on the lookout for results that seem off. A big sign is the government calling the election too early, important this year given the mail-in issue. Also compare results to your exit polls
Be on the lookout for results that seem off. A big sign is the government calling the election too early, important this year given the mail-in issue. Also compare results to your exit polls
4a) Occupy, don't march
The is the mistake the Iranians made in 2009. The goal is to create an ongoing crisis that the government has to resolve, not a series of marches that can be slowly strangled with repression
Turn the DC Mall into Tahrir Square #TahrirMall
The is the mistake the Iranians made in 2009. The goal is to create an ongoing crisis that the government has to resolve, not a series of marches that can be slowly strangled with repression
Turn the DC Mall into Tahrir Square #TahrirMall
4b) Don't leave, but limit your demands
Occupy the DC Mall and public spaces in purple state capitals, creating an ongoing crisis that can't be resolved until the president goes. Limit your demand to that one thing the entire opposition can agree on. Anything else is a bonus
Occupy the DC Mall and public spaces in purple state capitals, creating an ongoing crisis that can't be resolved until the president goes. Limit your demand to that one thing the entire opposition can agree on. Anything else is a bonus
4c) Be prepared for violence, but remain peaceful
The goal is to force the military to turn on the regime. Our military is structured so that is likely as long as people remain peaceful. Danger will come from police, at first. Bigger danger will come from regime-allied thugs.
The goal is to force the military to turn on the regime. Our military is structured so that is likely as long as people remain peaceful. Danger will come from police, at first. Bigger danger will come from regime-allied thugs.
4d) Defend against violence but don't respond
After the police are pushed back and the public squares occupied, the regime will likely try to end in allied militias and thugs as a last resort. People will get hurt. Meet it with appropriate defensive violence, but never rioting
After the police are pushed back and the public squares occupied, the regime will likely try to end in allied militias and thugs as a last resort. People will get hurt. Meet it with appropriate defensive violence, but never rioting
4e) Remain until the regime cracks
If you're lucky and the regime doesn't send thugs, or if you resist them, the military will refuse to attack. They will likely arrest the president or encourage him to leave. Do not leave until the government announces an opposition win
If you're lucky and the regime doesn't send thugs, or if you resist them, the military will refuse to attack. They will likely arrest the president or encourage him to leave. Do not leave until the government announces an opposition win
4f) Go home
In another system, like Egypt, Russia or Iran, it would be necessary to remain in the streets until a transition regime was empowered. This won't be necessary in the US
Take the win and go home, do not attempt to overthrow the system or your coalition will fracture
In another system, like Egypt, Russia or Iran, it would be necessary to remain in the streets until a transition regime was empowered. This won't be necessary in the US
Take the win and go home, do not attempt to overthrow the system or your coalition will fracture
*This is also applicable if the election results are honest, but the GOP wins a bare Electoral College majority while losing the popular vote badly
If this were to happen again (the only way Trump can win) it would be 3 of the last 6 elections won by the popular vote loser
If this were to happen again (the only way Trump can win) it would be 3 of the last 6 elections won by the popular vote loser
