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Making the Case for TE-Early AND Late In Your 2020 Redrafts:
TE = By Far the Scarcest Position
TE-Early & Late Mitigates the Risk of TE-Only-Late
Hitting = Cornering the Trade Market
[A THREAD]
TE = By Far the Scarcest PositionTE-Early & Late Mitigates the Risk of TE-Only-LateHitting = Cornering the Trade Market[A THREAD]
The most compelling case for TE-early & late is the simple fact that it is BY FAR the scarcest position to find production at, even scarcer than RB.
Even though TE is deeper than ever, it’s still nowhere near a deep market...
In every tier, supply ≠ demand.
Last year:
Even though TE is deeper than ever, it’s still nowhere near a deep market...
In every tier, supply ≠ demand.
Last year:
114 players scored 150+ fantasy points:
29 QB’s
31 RB’s
45 WR’s
9 TE’s
In 12-team leagues, that’s:
2 QB’s apiece & a 3rd for every other team.
Nearly 3 RB’s apiece.
Nearly 4 WR’s apiece.
But not enough TE’s for everyone to get one…
29 QB’s
31 RB’s
45 WR’s
9 TE’s
In 12-team leagues, that’s:
2 QB’s apiece & a 3rd for every other team.
Nearly 3 RB’s apiece.
Nearly 4 WR’s apiece.
But not enough TE’s for everyone to get one…
85 players scored 190+ fantasy points:
28 QB’s
21 RB’s
30 WR’s
6 TE’s
In 12-team leagues, that’s:
More than enough QB’s & WR’s for 2 per-team.
Almost enough RB’s for 2 per-team.
But only enough TE’s for half the league to get one…
28 QB’s
21 RB’s
30 WR’s
6 TE’s
In 12-team leagues, that’s:
More than enough QB’s & WR’s for 2 per-team.
Almost enough RB’s for 2 per-team.
But only enough TE’s for half the league to get one…
59 players scored 220+ fantasy points:
24 QB’s
13 RB’s
19 WR’s
3 TE’s (!!)
(Kelce/Kittle/Waller)
Do you see where this is going??
(TE EARLY!!)
24 QB’s
13 RB’s
19 WR’s
3 TE’s (!!)
(Kelce/Kittle/Waller)
Do you see where this is going??
(TE EARLY!!)
By going RB in RD1 (and possibly also RD2), you can secure one (or two) of those 13 RB’s, be one of the few teams to set themselves apart at TE with one of their first 3 picks, & “settle” for gobbling up the sturdy mid-round WR’s & late-round QB’s...
This strategy is ideal because it allows you to have the most important assets in the smallest (& most valuable) markets (RB & TE), with the deepest & easiest markets to trade up in (WR & QB) being your weakest positions going into the season.
You can trade up the QB & WR ladders in-season for a half-eaten bagel & your loose pocket change.
Trading up the RB & TE ladder will cost you an arm, a leg, & the shirt off your back.
Which position would you rather find yourself in??
Trading up the RB & TE ladder will cost you an arm, a leg, & the shirt off your back.
Which position would you rather find yourself in??
This year, whether it’s:
Kelce/Kittle RD2
Andrews RD3
Waller RD4
Ertz RD5
Or Henry/Engram RD6
Prioritize getting one of the clear top-7 TE’s projected to give you a legitimate advantage at the position.
Kelce/Kittle RD2
Andrews RD3
Waller RD4
Ertz RD5
Or Henry/Engram RD6
Prioritize getting one of the clear top-7 TE’s projected to give you a legitimate advantage at the position.
Kelce/Kittle RD2 if you’re comfortable getting a RB2 & RB3 in RD3 or later.
Andrews RD3 if you’re intent on starting off RB/RB.
Waller RD4 if a solid RB/WR falls to you in RD3, or if someone snipes Andrews.
Ertz RD5 if you want to gobble up RB’s & a WR (or two) through RD4.
Andrews RD3 if you’re intent on starting off RB/RB.
Waller RD4 if a solid RB/WR falls to you in RD3, or if someone snipes Andrews.
Ertz RD5 if you want to gobble up RB’s & a WR (or two) through RD4.
Personally, this is my cut-off point, as I don’t particularly trust Henry’s or Engram’s health, but they make sense in RD6 if you don’t see a huge gap between them & Ertz & would rather grab another RB, WR, or your first QB in RD5.
After those 7 TE’s it’s a guessing game.
After those 7 TE’s it’s a guessing game.
There's 15 TE-late targets this year:
(In order of Sleeper ADP)
Higbee, Cook, Hurst, Hooper, Fant, Gesicki, Hock, Jonnu, Jarwin, Ebron, Goedert, Doyle, Herndon, Knox, & Thomas.
We love names, but it’s a major risk assuming you’ll actually hit, even if you draft two of them…
(In order of Sleeper ADP)
Higbee, Cook, Hurst, Hooper, Fant, Gesicki, Hock, Jonnu, Jarwin, Ebron, Goedert, Doyle, Herndon, Knox, & Thomas.
We love names, but it’s a major risk assuming you’ll actually hit, even if you draft two of them…
& that’s assuming you won’t get sniped & will actually be able to draft the late-round TE’s you’re targeting…
Everyone wants to believe they’re going to find the next Andrews or Waller with a TE-late draft strategy.
But for every hit last year, there were 2-3 misses...
Everyone wants to believe they’re going to find the next Andrews or Waller with a TE-late draft strategy.
But for every hit last year, there were 2-3 misses...
On Sleeper’s ADP, Vance McDonald (75.1) & Njoku (83.5) were going before Hooper (95.4)
All of them, Delanie (115.4), Ebron (117.5), & Hockenson (126.1) were going before Andrews (142.1)
All of those guys, Trey Burton (152.4), & Rudolph (154.9) were going before Waller (155.8)
All of them, Delanie (115.4), Ebron (117.5), & Hockenson (126.1) were going before Andrews (142.1)
All of those guys, Trey Burton (152.4), & Rudolph (154.9) were going before Waller (155.8)
Chris Herndon (157.3) & Jordan Reed (158) were also swing & misses at similar ADP’s.
Noah Fant (158.1) was the last “TE-late” target with an ADP below 276 & except for 2 games, he was a swing & miss as well...
Noah Fant (158.1) was the last “TE-late” target with an ADP below 276 & except for 2 games, he was a swing & miss as well...
That’s 13 TE’s in the “TE-late” range last year & each (minus Rudolph) had a case for a legit break-out/bounce-back year.
We hit on 3 (!!)
~ 25% Hit Rate
We were just as likely to draft Njoku/Reed or McDonald/Burton as we were to end up with either Hooper, Andrews, or Waller.
We hit on 3 (!!)
~ 25% Hit Rate
We were just as likely to draft Njoku/Reed or McDonald/Burton as we were to end up with either Hooper, Andrews, or Waller.
Even if we assume we’re getting a Hooper, Andrews, and Waller-level breakout from 3 TE’s in each year’s batch (ambitious, at best), that = more teams who miss on the TE-late strategy than those who hit, and that’s assuming 2 of the 3 breakouts aren’t drafted by the same team...
With TE-early, you give yourself leeway to miss on your TE-late target (which ~75% of us will), as well as the potential to corner the TE market if your TE-late target hits.
Imagine what you could've done with Kelce early & Andrews late last year…
Imagine what you could've done with Kelce early & Andrews late last year…
An anecdote which propelled me to a Championship & Total Points Title last year:
RB (Zeke) RD1
Kelce RD2
WR/RB/RB/WR next
2QB’s RD7/8
Andrews late.
Traded breakout Andrews & Jarvis (my 6th RD pick at WR) to a TE-needy team for Chris Godwin (after Week 4). The rest is history.
RB (Zeke) RD1
Kelce RD2
WR/RB/RB/WR next
2QB’s RD7/8
Andrews late.
Traded breakout Andrews & Jarvis (my 6th RD pick at WR) to a TE-needy team for Chris Godwin (after Week 4). The rest is history.
Drafting Lamar probably helped, but the point remains – I hit on TE-early & late, used it as a massive trade-chip & turned one of my mid-round WR’s into a stud WR, all while maintaining an advantage at RB & TE...
Inversely, my downfall in another league was drafting Hunter Henry RD5 & no second TE. When he went down, I figured IR & dropped him. It left me scrambling at TE & in a position where I couldn’t refuse Dalvin & Evan Engram (from an owner who also had Waller, mind you!!) for CMC.
Engram was hurt a week later & my team struggled to fill the TE hole all year.
Jacob Hollister (7 pts) was my TE in a Week 14 first-round exit.
In both situations, having multiple top-TE’s allowed incredible leverage on the trade market, particularly early in the year.
Jacob Hollister (7 pts) was my TE in a Week 14 first-round exit.
In both situations, having multiple top-TE’s allowed incredible leverage on the trade market, particularly early in the year.
If you hit on your RD1 RB, pick the right QB's late, and are willing to incrementally trade up the WR ladder by flipping your mid-round WR's, TE-early & late gives you the best chance at maximizing production across all 4 of the offensive positions.
I’m sure teams who took Kittle early & Waller late last year can tell you similar stories about how they were able to exploit the situation…
