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Rookie QBs do not historically support top-24 WR production.
Why I am off of Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, and Devante Parker for REDRAFT 2020, a thread...
Why I am off of Keenan Allen, Tyler Boyd, and Devante Parker for REDRAFT 2020, a thread...
If Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, or even Derek Carr throw for 4,000 yards and 25 TDs this season, will anyone be impressed, or even surprised? I don’t think so.
However, if Burrow, Tua, or Herbert do, they’ll be among the best rookies in NFL history.
However, if Burrow, Tua, or Herbert do, they’ll be among the best rookies in NFL history.
This fundamental lack of production from rookie QBs makes it difficult for WRs to sustain high level production.
Since 2015, the following QBs have started 12+ games in their rookie seasons: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Josh Allen, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray.
In terms of PPR points per game, here is where each QB's top WR finished (N/A means they were so far down that it wasn't worth figuring out):
There are obviously some nobodies in that group, but you've also got Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans, Jordan Matthews and Robby Anderson who all finished higher in the year prior to the rookie's arrival.
I'd also like to mention Drew Lock, Dwayne Haskins, and Deshaun Watson--three QBs who were only able to play a handful of games as rookies.
Courtland Sutton had 8 weekly top-30 finishes before Drew Lock took over in Week 13. In Lock's 5 games, Sutton finished as WR6 (cool!), WR51, WR37, WR50, and WR43.
Terry McLaurin finished as WR29 in PPG, but he scored more PPG with Case Keenum at QB than Dwayne Haskins.
Terry McLaurin finished as WR29 in PPG, but he scored more PPG with Case Keenum at QB than Dwayne Haskins.
Deshaun Watson seems to be the one outlier here. In his seven starts, DeAndre Hopkins averaged 19.2 PPR points per game, which would have placed him at WR2 for the season.
Regardless of what those two incredible players were able to do in a small sample, I’m still sticking to my general rule of avoiding WRs tied to rookie QBs, and I think you should, too.
