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We live in the AGE OF INFORMATION.
It's never been easier to PASSIVELY ACCEPT the opinions of other people.
Let's use HISTORY as a reminder as to how this can go WRONG.
THREAD...
It's never been easier to PASSIVELY ACCEPT the opinions of other people.
Let's use HISTORY as a reminder as to how this can go WRONG.
THREAD...
"If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one." - The Director of the National Cancer Institute in 1954.
Remember this when you passively accept appeals to scientific bodies over appeals to the actual science.
Remember this when you passively accept appeals to scientific bodies over appeals to the actual science.
"No one will pay good money to get from Berlin to Potsdam in one hour when he can ride his horse there in one day for free." - King William of Prussia on Trains
Remember this when you passively accept government officials' opinions on the future of transport.
Remember this when you passively accept government officials' opinions on the future of transport.
"Children just aren't interested in witches and wizards anymore." - Publisher rejection letter to JK Rowling
Harry Potter, the book about wizards & witches, went on to sell 500 MILLION COPIES.
Remember this when you passively accept gatekeepers feedback on your work
(Part 1)
Harry Potter, the book about wizards & witches, went on to sell 500 MILLION COPIES.
Remember this when you passively accept gatekeepers feedback on your work
(Part 1)
"We don't like their sound and guitar music is on the way out." Decca Recording Company on signing The Beatles in 1962.
The Beatles have sold 1.6 BILLION SINGLES.
Remember this when you passively accept gatekeepers feedback on your work.
(Part 2)
The Beatles have sold 1.6 BILLION SINGLES.
Remember this when you passively accept gatekeepers feedback on your work.
(Part 2)
"Titanic Sinking; No lives lost"
The Vancouver Sun printed this HEADLINE the day after the Titanic tragedy when 1,500 PEOPLE DIED.
Remember this when you passively accept the news' reporting of a dynamic situation that is constantly changing.
The Vancouver Sun printed this HEADLINE the day after the Titanic tragedy when 1,500 PEOPLE DIED.
Remember this when you passively accept the news' reporting of a dynamic situation that is constantly changing.
"The world potential market for copying machines is 5000 at most" - IBM to the founders of Xerox in 1959
Xerox went on to SELL MILLIONS OF COPYING MACHINES.
Remember this when you passively accept large company's predictions on startups.
Xerox went on to SELL MILLIONS OF COPYING MACHINES.
Remember this when you passively accept large company's predictions on startups.
"Rock & Roll? It will be gone by June." - Variety Magazine in 1955
Along came:
- Pink Floyd (250 MILLION ALBUMS)
- Rolling Stones (240 MILLION ALBUMS)
- Led Zeplin (300 MILLION ALBUMS)
Remember this when you passively accept media outlets predictions on popular culture.
Along came:
- Pink Floyd (250 MILLION ALBUMS)
- Rolling Stones (240 MILLION ALBUMS)
- Led Zeplin (300 MILLION ALBUMS)
Remember this when you passively accept media outlets predictions on popular culture.
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share." - Steve Ballmer in 2007
As of 2019, 2.2 BILLION iPhones were sold since the product launched.
Remember this when you passively accept a competitor's opinion on a rival product.
As of 2019, 2.2 BILLION iPhones were sold since the product launched.
Remember this when you passively accept a competitor's opinion on a rival product.
"There's not that many videos I want to watch." - Steve Chen, CTO & Co-founder of YouTube on the long term viability of his own product
5 BILLION VIDEOS ARE WATCHED ON YOUTUBE EVERY SINGLE DAY
Remember this when you passively accept somebody putting down their own good idea.
5 BILLION VIDEOS ARE WATCHED ON YOUTUBE EVERY SINGLE DAY
Remember this when you passively accept somebody putting down their own good idea.
"Hitler is no longer to be feared. It is believed he will retire to private life and return to Austria." - NY Times in 1925
1 year later he went on to publish Mein Kampf.
Remember this when you passively accept media's opinion on someone being a reformed man.
1 year later he went on to publish Mein Kampf.
Remember this when you passively accept media's opinion on someone being a reformed man.
"Feds seek these two pictured at Boston Marathon." - New York Post
The 2 men pictured were actually innocent.
"It is the worst feeling you can possibly feel." - Innocent 17 year old
Remember this when you passively accept someone painted as guilty before they are proved to be
The 2 men pictured were actually innocent.
"It is the worst feeling you can possibly feel." - Innocent 17 year old
Remember this when you passively accept someone painted as guilty before they are proved to be
"Spam will be a thing of the past in 2 years." - Bill Gates, 2004
168.3 BILLION SPAM EMAILS ARE SENT EVERYDAY IN 2020
Remember this when you passively accept an experts prediction of when a problem will end.
168.3 BILLION SPAM EMAILS ARE SENT EVERYDAY IN 2020
Remember this when you passively accept an experts prediction of when a problem will end.
"By 2005, it would become clear that the Internet's effect on the economy is no greater than the fax machines." - Paul Krugman
The fact you are reading this explains how wrong this one was.
Remember this when you passively accept an economist's prediction on technology.
The fact you are reading this explains how wrong this one was.
Remember this when you passively accept an economist's prediction on technology.
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher, Mathematical economist in 1929
3 days later the stock market plunged and the Great Depression began.
Remember this when you passively accept opinions on complex systems like the economy.
3 days later the stock market plunged and the Great Depression began.
Remember this when you passively accept opinions on complex systems like the economy.
"The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt... You could make available the Second Coming in a subscription, and it might not be successful." - Steve Jobs in 2003
Apple Music + Spotify = 192 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS
Remember this when you passively accept genius's opinion
Apple Music + Spotify = 192 MILLION SUBSCRIBERS
Remember this when you passively accept genius's opinion
CLOSING THOUGHTS:
- Never passively accept information without putting it through your own critical thinking.
- Dynamically update your models of the world as new information comes in.
- Ignore the status or success of the opinion giver. Instead, focus on 1st principles.
- Never passively accept information without putting it through your own critical thinking.
- Dynamically update your models of the world as new information comes in.
- Ignore the status or success of the opinion giver. Instead, focus on 1st principles.
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2. I just did a podcast with @ChrisWillx - Mental Models 103. Listen here
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1. Sign up to my "Return Of The Mack" newsletter where I share the best things I learned in the week
http://eepurl.com/g37gVL 2. I just did a podcast with @ChrisWillx - Mental Models 103. Listen here
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/178-george-mack-mental-models-103/id1347973549?i=1000476387205
