Since the JCS are currently circulating memos gesturing at a coup and the Attorney General has apparently decided it's a wise decision to defend the president with troops under his direct command, I think it's a good time to talk about Schelling Points.

Say you're put in a room. You're given the following piece of paper and told to select a square. You're also told that if you and another person in another room with whom you have no way to communicate both choose the same square, you'll receive $100.

Which square do you choose? It's not a trick question. Naturally you'll choose the red square because it is in some sense "conspicuous." That is a Schelling Point. The solution to a game that two players will naturally settle on without communication.

This is a simple concept but an incredibly important one. Life is filled with coordination problems - scenarios that rely on your ability to make decisions based on reliable assumptions about other people's behavior. Importantly, this remains true even if you *can* communicate.

Look at this map of the Korean Peninsula prior to the Korean War. Why would you decide to divide the country like this? Look at that little peninsula on the West owned by South Korea but barely contiguous with it. Why choose the 38th parallel? Because it's a Schelling Point.

The Americans and Soviets both wanted influence over the Korean Peninsula. Both of them also realized that trying to get it from the other would be an incredibly bloody and expensive affair (it eventually was - perhaps you've heard of the Korean War).

But what they shared was an arbitrary mathematical system for measuring latitude and an aesthetic preference for round numbers. Since the 38th parallel was a round number and split things up roughly half and half, it was a *conspicuous* place to draw the line with no blood shed.

So, why does any of this matter right now? It matters because if any of you think that Trump is going to come out on top in a coup scenario because the rank and file support him, you're deluding yourselves. Schelling Points make the difference.

A civil war is a massive chaotic coordination problem. Maybe you have a favorite side, but your first priority is not to get shot, and your second priority is not to lose. It doesn't matter how many people *want* one side to win if they don't have a way to coordinate.

This is a problem that the military - having fought a few wars in its time - has had time to chew over. And they have a solution. It's called the Chain of Command. The Chain of Command is a big bunch of Schelling Points that tell you who to listen to if you don't want to get shot

Coups are led by generals and colonels - not by privates and corporals. Organization and coordination are far more important than sheer numbers or even resources. I've said before that Japan brought the world to its knees because the trains there run on time.

Go to England. It's a bucolic little island full of sheep and pastures. They conquered the world because they're exceptionally good at queuing. Arrival times, departure times, your spot in line...these are all Schelling points. Civilization is built on Schelling Points.

In college, a white girl who'd visited Malawi told me that the Africans are so wise because the bus doesn't leave according to a timetable - only when it's full.

That's retarded.

It's also why Malawi is so poor they needed her to come there and build a well or whatever.

What we call modern civilization is the ability to make plans based on reliable assumptions about the behavior of MILLIONS of humans whom you will never see or meet.

Schelling Points Rule Everything Around You.

Without a timetable, there's no way to tell when a bus will come or go. Have you ever gotten to a bus stop 5 minutes ahead of time and waited for it to arrive, constantly wondering whether it had actually been early and already left? I have. If not on time, when? No way to know.

Schelling Points are the basis of deals. Without a Schelling Point, why do you ever have a reason to stop bargaining? You're always in a position to get a marginally better deal. Schelling Points allow both parties to avoid blowing everything on transaction costs.

Understand Human Civilization With This One Weird Trick!

The Schelling Point is one of the highest-yielding concepts there is in terms of explanatory value and easiness to understand.

If our cold civil war goes hot, it might just save your life. And all because you followed me!