Behind closed doors football...

What does it mean for FPL and planning for GW39 onwards?

A {THREAD}

#fpl #fplcommunity (1/17)

Method: I've reviewed various research and articles on the impact of playing football behind closed doors from before Covid-19, and then compared recent Bundesliga results to see if they support these theories. Here are the key conclusions and FPL considerations. (2/17)

Theory: home advantage will mean much less, if anything at all. This is supposedly due to referee bias being lower without home crowd pressure and not so much the crowd's vocal support for home teams improving their performance. However both surely have an impact. (3/17)

With crowds the home win % in the Bundesliga this season before Covid-19 was 43%. Of the first 37 games since the restart without crowds, only 8 have been won by the home team. That's a win rate of 21.6% - half. A staggering difference & clearly supports the theory. (4/17)

It's a very natural instinct in FPL to pick players based on strength of home fixtures, but if one thing is clear, we must not place as much emphasis on home/away breakdown in fixtures, and focus more on the quality of the teams matching up. (5/17)

Theory: home teams score fewer goals behind closed doors. Obviously closely linked to the previous point on home teams winning less games - and the reasons for this theory are very much the same, a mixture of less referee bias and no crowd support. (6/17)

This again is convincingly proved by Bundesliga comparisons this season. Average home goals per game in the 224 games before lockdown was 1.74. In the 37 games since, home average is 1.35. As away teams have done better since the restart, it is no surprise that... (7/17)

...the away goals per game average is up from 1.50 to 1.84. So each game is now on average seeing half a goal more for away teams than home teams! Curiously overall goals per game have gone down slightly from 3.25 to 3.18 - though hardly a significant change. (8/17)

Less home goals, and a real swing to away teams for goals - further reasons for us not giving any significance to home/away and treat each game as if at neutral location. Strikers just as likely to score away as at home - and defence just as likely to keep clean sheets (9/17)

Theory: more shots on target are saved for both home and away teams behind closed doors. Studies have shown circa 10% more shots are saved when games are played behind without crowds. (10/17)

On average player shots, shots on target and saves have all decreased in Bundesliga games behind closed doors...
Average shots (on target) per game before: 26.8 (10.0)
Since restart: 24.9 (9.6)
Average saves per game before: 6.7
Since restart: 6.4... (11/17)

... 67.4% of shots on target were saved in front of crowds this season, and 66.4% since the restart behind closed doors. Therefore disproving this theory! (12/17)

This comparison shows teams/players are now taking less shots overall. Unsurprising considering overall goals have decreased - and is perhaps a key contributing reason. The differences are small, but it could mean more clean sheets and more points from defenders/GKs (13/17)

Theory: less yellow cards are given to away teams behind closed doors. Research has shown that on average half a yellow card less is given to away teams per game. Supporting the idea of less referee bias without crowds, as mentioned before. (14/17)

The comparsion results here are really interesting...
Average Bundesliga yellow cards per game this season:
Before - Home teams 1.73
Before - Away teams 2.08
Since restart - Home teams 2.24
Since restart - Away teams 1.92 (15/17)

A huge shift, significant change and clearly supporting the referee bias theory. Perhaps of less direct significance to our FPL planning - as we don't tend to plan for yellow cards based on home/away - but adds more credence to the previous conclusions. (16/17)

Thanks for reading!
Plenty of good research on this online if you're interested.
Welcome back FPL (17/17)