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much has been made of the purported difference in outcomes on covid between the various nordic countries with sweden singled out for attack.
but are they really any different and has sweden caused a crisis by not locking down?
it does not look that way.
but are they really any different and has sweden caused a crisis by not locking down?
it does not look that way.
first we can look at all cause deaths across flu season. there is no issue there to single sweden out. they are in 3rd place out of 4 on all cause deaths per capita. denmark and finland are higher.
this is not nesc meaningful as the countries seem to have differing baselines.
this is not nesc meaningful as the countries seem to have differing baselines.
so it's instructive to look at countries relative to their own histories.
i population adjusted the deaths figures from the max planck institute. i then generated a pop adj baseline(2007-19) for NCHS flu season thru wk 18.
sweden is 4.5% below baseline this year.
i population adjusted the deaths figures from the max planck institute. i then generated a pop adj baseline(2007-19) for NCHS flu season thru wk 18.
sweden is 4.5% below baseline this year.
we can then compare this to the other nordics.
norway is 9% below their 2007-19 baseline.
denmark is 2.7% below baseline.
finland is the outlier. they are 10.6% ABOVE baseline and are having a very high death year.
so, again, the swedes are the 2nd best performer out of the 4.
norway is 9% below their 2007-19 baseline.
denmark is 2.7% below baseline.
finland is the outlier. they are 10.6% ABOVE baseline and are having a very high death year.
so, again, the swedes are the 2nd best performer out of the 4.
what are we to make of this?
surely if covid were some massive killer in sweden and an epic failure of social policy, we'd see it in the deaths figures
but we don't
this means it's either aggressive counting and classification on covid, or it's just such a small # to get lost
surely if covid were some massive killer in sweden and an epic failure of social policy, we'd see it in the deaths figures
but we don't
this means it's either aggressive counting and classification on covid, or it's just such a small # to get lost
we know several things to help us sort that out:
fist is that sweden is using incredibly inclusive COV counting. this would seem to support the idea that covid deaths may be overstated and it's a matter just moving deaths from one category to another. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267517546468569090?s=20
fist is that sweden is using incredibly inclusive COV counting. this would seem to support the idea that covid deaths may be overstated and it's a matter just moving deaths from one category to another. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267517546468569090?s=20
we also know that finland, for example, has used an incredibly lax counting method that does not include deaths outside of hospitals.
they do not count nursing homes or home deaths.
70% of swedish deaths were in NH/elder care. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267562964116058112?s=20
they do not count nursing homes or home deaths.
70% of swedish deaths were in NH/elder care. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267562964116058112?s=20
i have several anecdotes from norway and one from denmark that indicate this same issue exists there. their standard is supposed to be inclusive, but it's not being followed in NH's and elder care.
i'm not sure this rises to the standard of "proof" yet so i want to be careful.
i'm not sure this rises to the standard of "proof" yet so i want to be careful.
and i want to avoid making strong claims, but it looks suspicious. the COV figures from FIN are clearly dodgy.
this is why all cause deaths are so useful. it's one thing that is accurately counted and can be compared.
covid deaths figures vary and seem to warrant asterisks.
this is why all cause deaths are so useful. it's one thing that is accurately counted and can be compared.
covid deaths figures vary and seem to warrant asterisks.
the other side of this is that if one looks at a narrow 5-6 week window, it DOES look like sweden has a rise in excess deaths. many have foregrounded this as proof of catastrophe.
i think this is overly mypoic.
some perspective based on US figures: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267174562354982912?s=20
i think this is overly mypoic.
some perspective based on US figures: https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267174562354982912?s=20
sweden had negative excess deaths for 46 straight wks and was REALLY low. then, over 5 weeks, it played catchup (but did not catch up, it's still 4.5% below baseline).
this whole "crisis" is that small change in slope on the blue line. perspective matters.
this whole "crisis" is that small change in slope on the blue line. perspective matters.
this is still a below average year by a significant margin.
so, lots of people outlived expectation, then some of them
reverted to mean.
"excess deaths" in weeks 14-18 get inflated by seasonal baselines. they are, in absolute terms similar to peak flu seasons past.
so, lots of people outlived expectation, then some of them
reverted to mean.
"excess deaths" in weeks 14-18 get inflated by seasonal baselines. they are, in absolute terms similar to peak flu seasons past.
they get reported as big excess deaths because they are comped to a non flu season baseline
but there was no real flu season spike this year in SWE. so, like the the US, it's just a shifted peak
deaths from RTI got delayed 3 months and are still 4.5% below normal on cum basis
but there was no real flu season spike this year in SWE. so, like the the US, it's just a shifted peak
deaths from RTI got delayed 3 months and are still 4.5% below normal on cum basis
so, i'm struggling to see what all the fuss is about.
the covid death figures look like they are not comparable to peers and the all cause deaths figures show a mild, not a bad year.
sweden looks like the better half, not the worse of scandinavia.
the covid death figures look like they are not comparable to peers and the all cause deaths figures show a mild, not a bad year.
sweden looks like the better half, not the worse of scandinavia.
it looks like a very mild lead up year left a lot of folks alive past actuarial expectation.
this left a large cohort of vulnerable people for COV to affect.
it played some catchup, but, in sweden, did not actually reach typical levels.
this left a large cohort of vulnerable people for COV to affect.
it played some catchup, but, in sweden, did not actually reach typical levels.
this perspective matters. H2 flu season is not an independent variable from H1.
if someone had a magic wand that could delay flu season 3 months and make it 4.5% milder than a typical year, they'd put up statues of them.
if someone had a magic wand that could delay flu season 3 months and make it 4.5% milder than a typical year, they'd put up statues of them.
bizarrely, many seem to view this argument as "cheating" and "burying the deaths in months of data"
this argument is self refuting
if this "catastrophe" can be so easily lost in the data of a flu season, how can it be a real catastrophe?
it cannot even amount to an average flu
this argument is self refuting
if this "catastrophe" can be so easily lost in the data of a flu season, how can it be a real catastrophe?
it cannot even amount to an average flu
it's also manifestly clear that lockdown could not have affected death rates in sweden materially even if lockdowns worked (they don't)
88% of deaths were over 70 years old
the young and working were not a big part of the deaths. 70% were elder care https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264979351105204224?s=20
88% of deaths were over 70 years old
the young and working were not a big part of the deaths. 70% were elder care https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264979351105204224?s=20
and lockdowns failed to work anyhow.
everyone got the same curves. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537?s=20
everyone got the same curves. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1264596818429505537?s=20
and there is no correlation between lockdown and deaths later. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1266747362728280065?s=20
so it looks like the swedes, despite the endless criticism they have endured from the authoritarians who cannot bear to see people make their own choices and thrive, made the right call.
even norway has agreed. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267086931793309696?s=20
even norway has agreed. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267086931793309696?s=20
so can we please stop all this "sweden is the charnel house of scandinavia" nonsense?
the facts looked at with any remotely reasonable perspective fail to bear it out.
the facts looked at with any remotely reasonable perspective fail to bear it out.
