Resumption of explosive nuke testing by US (ceteris paribus):

-one of the most singularly unwise & destabilizing acts that this Admin could do EVEN BY ITS OWN “STANDARDS”

-surprisingly difficult & expensive & time consuming if you don’t just pop off a W76-2 over an ocean.

1/n https://twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1263999634575417345
2/n

This should worry you A LOT because ia goodly number of connected, powerful, well-funded people & government entities WOULD FUCKING LOVE TO EXPLOSIVELY TEST US NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

FORTUNATELY!

This is one area where Congress SHOULD* be able to excercise control b/c $$$.
3/n

IIRC, John Hopkins—former director of testing at Los Alamos—said in a talk I attended with @CherylRofer (see her writeup about US nuclear testing below)...

...you’d be looking at 2-3 years and a billion to resume testing. https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2016/03/14/what-it-would-take-to-restart-american-nuclear-testing/
4/n

I like keeping the testing experience of neo-proliferators low in addition to reducing/preventing the “fiddling” and capability enhancements allowed by active nuclear testing.

PROLIFERATION BAD, HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL!
5/n

US has most & oft relatively best instrumented nuclear explosive test data in world.

US 1,149 (includes joint UK)
RU 727
FR 217
UK (w/joint Us IIRC) 88
China 45
Ind/Pak 6 each
DPRK 6

Who gains the most from a resumption of nuclear testing?
6/n
to be lazily (b/c tired, drugged) anthropological...

...I think in part the tough guy behavior so far has not acquired what trump wants & has opened space & he’s reaching for what Anne Harrington termed “the fetishism of force”:

nukes are magic and they will compel!
7/n

I don’t THINK Trump could pull off explosive nuclear test without Congress & EPA [or the lab(s) doing an endrun around Congress & EPA) (😬)] to do a “nuclear explosive test” lite?

something yielding a few tens of kilos to tons or tens of tons with minimal instrumentation.
8/8

Closing comment:

Yup, this is not a surprise. Hopefully it won’t be a problem with him because the timeline for resuming nuclear testing SHOULD BE (without shenanigans and shit planning) longer than his remaining term.

EVEN IF, Congress probs gotta appropriate $$$.
9/8

IN CLOSING:

discussion of resuming nuclear testing conflicts with pledges to adhere to CTBT in Trump’s 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.

But it is less than wise to presume consistent-or any-planning, strategy, or reason in the House of Trump.

https://twitter.com/nuclearanthro/status/1044709656071888896?s=21 https://twitter.com/NuclearAnthro/status/1044709656071888896
10/8

The continuing and end result of all of this is human misery, death, and eventually war.

https://twitter.com/nuclearanthro/status/1263678261038477313?s=21 https://twitter.com/NuclearAnthro/status/1263678261038477313
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