Read on Twitter
1/. I’m no scientist so please correct me, but it seems one of the key early errors of the govt’s #COVID19 strategy was the failure to do epidemiological modelling for lockdown until mid-March thereby not providing any alternative ‘design options’.
This is Prof Edmunds on 28/4.
This is Prof Edmunds on 28/4.
2/. NHS capacity was not understood until it was too late.
Data on NHS “surge capacity" was not pre-loaded within Imperial College's modelling & was only populated btw 1st - 10th March.
See @neil_ferguson at Health Select Committee on 25/3 (from 2mins).
Data on NHS “surge capacity" was not pre-loaded within Imperial College's modelling & was only populated btw 1st - 10th March.
See @neil_ferguson at Health Select Committee on 25/3 (from 2mins).
3/. It seems that the "non-pharmaceutical options weren't pre-populated either (they appear to only be developed in February).
Key data wasn't populated by the govt scientific advisory body, NERVTAG, until 21/2/20 despite despite some key data being published many days before.
Key data wasn't populated by the govt scientific advisory body, NERVTAG, until 21/2/20 despite despite some key data being published many days before.
4/. The first 'modelled & quantified report' for the UK only arrived on 16/3.
NERVTAG only had 3 brief phone conferences in February (totalling only 4.5hrs).
It seems they believed there was plenty of time to model the options to design the best solution to gain herd immunity.
NERVTAG only had 3 brief phone conferences in February (totalling only 4.5hrs).
It seems they believed there was plenty of time to model the options to design the best solution to gain herd immunity.
5/. Patrick Vallance claimed on 9/4 that it wasn’t true that modelling for the consequences of lockdown was only begun in mid-March. “We modelled all scenarios throughout February...The modelling came from a variety of sources.”
What were these ‘sources’?
https://twitter.com/Hanksban/status/1248290563096535045/video/1
What were these ‘sources’?
https://twitter.com/Hanksban/status/1248290563096535045/video/1
6/. Vallance was more equivocal when asked on 5/5 if he’d “decided not to model what death rates would be with track & trace model b/c you decided we didn’t have testing capacity?”
“I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.”
“I don’t know if that’s correct. I can't remember off the top of my head.”
7/. Chris Whitty (CMO), repeatedly said the "reasonable worst case’ was unlikely due his hope there'd be a high percentage of asymptomatic/mild cases of #COVID19.
Could it be the govt & SAGE took a gamble on this worst case scenario data being unlikely...& got it horribly wrong?
Could it be the govt & SAGE took a gamble on this worst case scenario data being unlikely...& got it horribly wrong?
8/. “I told him right at the start.”
@MattHancock says he warned @BorisJohnson about #COVID19 at the beginning of January.
He says he remembers thinking at PMQs in Februrary: ‘Nobody’s asking about the single biggest issue that's about to come & hit us.’
@MattHancock says he warned @BorisJohnson about #COVID19 at the beginning of January.
He says he remembers thinking at PMQs in Februrary: ‘Nobody’s asking about the single biggest issue that's about to come & hit us.’
9/. “The UK was forewarned but nut forearmed.”
“Meaningless political soundbites promising to recruit 18 000 contact tracers, test 200 000 people a day, or invest in unjustified contact tracing apps, divert focus & could lead to more deaths.” @bmj_latest https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932
“Meaningless political soundbites promising to recruit 18 000 contact tracers, test 200 000 people a day, or invest in unjustified contact tracing apps, divert focus & could lead to more deaths.” @bmj_latest https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1932
10/. Interviewed on @Channel4News on 14/2, @neil_ferguson told @mattfrei that up to 400,000 British people in the UK could die from #coronavirus.
Prof Ferguson resigned after a story broke revealing a month before he’d broke social distancing rules.
Prof Ferguson resigned after a story broke revealing a month before he’d broke social distancing rules.
11/. Newly published SAGE document show on 26 February the Reasonable Worst Case Hospitilisation rate was calculated at 3.6 million potential #COVID19 hospital visits.
How is it possible that they’d calculate this but not bother looking at NHS capacity?! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882716/19-current-understanding-covid-19-compared-with-nrsa-pandemic-influenza-26022020.pdf
How is it possible that they’d calculate this but not bother looking at NHS capacity?! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882716/19-current-understanding-covid-19-compared-with-nrsa-pandemic-influenza-26022020.pdf
12/. The SAGE Meeting the NEXT DAY didn’t mention hospitalisation rates.
SAGE were talking about 60-80% of population getting infected, with no discussion of containment?
They were calculating 500k deaths - and that was without modelling any deaths due to lack of NHS capacity?
SAGE were talking about 60-80% of population getting infected, with no discussion of containment?
They were calculating 500k deaths - and that was without modelling any deaths due to lack of NHS capacity?
13/. The document (26 Feb) clearly states the NHS would be overwhelmed "well before the peak is reached" without drastic interventions.
It also says: “It is a political decision to consider whether to enact stricter measures.” http://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl … https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873723/03-potential-effect-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-npis-on-a-Covid-19-epidemic-in-the-UK.pdf
It also says: “It is a political decision to consider whether to enact stricter measures.” http://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl … https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/873723/03-potential-effect-of-non-pharmaceutical-interventions-npis-on-a-Covid-19-epidemic-in-the-UK.pdf
14/. Incredibly at that stage numbers hadn’t been determined from either the epidemiology or the NHS Surge capacity.
Remember Vallance’s famous slide from 3 March? The ‘supply v demand’ sombrero.
On 26 February, the Reasonable Worst Case for bed demand was estimated at 3.8m.
Remember Vallance’s famous slide from 3 March? The ‘supply v demand’ sombrero.
On 26 February, the Reasonable Worst Case for bed demand was estimated at 3.8m.
15/. On 12 March, the PM talked about “squashing the sombrero”.
The message is about “delay” - no need for shutting pubs/schools etc.
This was the same day as @peston’s published his No.10-briefed article stating “the govt’s strategy” is #HerdImmunity.
The message is about “delay” - no need for shutting pubs/schools etc.
This was the same day as @peston’s published his No.10-briefed article stating “the govt’s strategy” is #HerdImmunity.
16/. On Valentines Day, the PM & Carrie went to stay in Chevening mansion.
On the same day, @neil_ferguson said “400,000 Briton’s could die from #COVID19”
On 21 February, NERVTAG minutes show govt advisors estimating a death toll of up to 1.3 million.
On the same day, @neil_ferguson said “400,000 Briton’s could die from #COVID19”
On 21 February, NERVTAG minutes show govt advisors estimating a death toll of up to 1.3 million.
17/ According to @C4Dispatches, PM & Carrie spent 12 days in Chevening.
@JCalvertST: “A number of people in Downing St were concerned the PM just wasn’t taking a lead. We were told that aides were told to cut down documents or he just wouldn't read them.”
@JCalvertST: “A number of people in Downing St were concerned the PM just wasn’t taking a lead. We were told that aides were told to cut down documents or he just wouldn't read them.”
18/. It is clear that @BorisJohnson has never had a strong grip on the science.
This footage of him on his return from 12 days in Kent shows that he was unaware that no #coronavirus testing or tracking was being done on anyone arriving from #COVID19 hotspots such Northern Italy.
This footage of him on his return from 12 days in Kent shows that he was unaware that no #coronavirus testing or tracking was being done on anyone arriving from #COVID19 hotspots such Northern Italy.
19/. Boris Johnson boasted last month: “I don't actually read the scientific papers except in exceptional circumstances, but what I do get is the digest...[Vallance & Whitty] give me the cream of that advice".
His poor grasp on the science & ‘strategy’ is clear (e.g. PMQs 6/5).
His poor grasp on the science & ‘strategy’ is clear (e.g. PMQs 6/5).
20/. The govt have just released a new batch of evidence from SAGE (on Fri evening so they miss the weekend papers)!
Shows on 3 March, hospital demand had been calculated (up to 1.5m non-ICU beds & 200,000 ICU beds) but no NHS capacity overlaid. #BREAKING https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891897/S0034_SAGE12_Social_Distancing_on_Deaths_and_Peak_Demand_Annex_2_to_Potential_impact_of_behavioural_and_social_interventions_on_an_epidemic_of_Covid19_in_the_UK.pdf
Shows on 3 March, hospital demand had been calculated (up to 1.5m non-ICU beds & 200,000 ICU beds) but no NHS capacity overlaid. #BREAKING https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891897/S0034_SAGE12_Social_Distancing_on_Deaths_and_Peak_Demand_Annex_2_to_Potential_impact_of_behavioural_and_social_interventions_on_an_epidemic_of_Covid19_in_the_UK.pdf
#BREAKINGNEWS: Newly published SAGE minutes show that the govt KNEW on 25 February - 3 weeks before they claimed - that NHS ICU beds would be overwhelmed!
The data table uses a 16.5% ICU rate.
Is this another ‘smoking gun’ in the #HerdImmunityScandal? https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891878/S0023_SAGE10_Sensitivity_of_ICU_Surveillance.pdf
The data table uses a 16.5% ICU rate.
Is this another ‘smoking gun’ in the #HerdImmunityScandal? https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/891878/S0023_SAGE10_Sensitivity_of_ICU_Surveillance.pdf
21/. To explain the graphic, the size of the red rectangle (i.e. from 7 April to early June) shows NHS critical capacity would be exceeded.
The black line represents the actual epidemic if left uncontrolled.
This was 25 Feb. The official story is very different. #BreakingNews
The black line represents the actual epidemic if left uncontrolled.
This was 25 Feb. The official story is very different. #BreakingNews
22/. NERVTAG (a sub-group of SAGE) populated a data table on 21/2 (including estimated case fatality & hospitalisation rates).
That data fed into a table used by SPI-M (modellers).
Modelling teams used the data to model.
Imperial College did this report
on 25/2.
Simplified
That data fed into a table used by SPI-M (modellers).
Modelling teams used the data to model.
Imperial College did this report
on 25/2.Simplified
23/. This was the govt’s chief modeller, @neil_ferguson, on 14 Feb saying “400,000 Briton’s could die” if no action was taken
The same day @BorisJohnson went to Kent for 12 days
On 21 Feb, NERVTAG minutes show an estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million
The same day @BorisJohnson went to Kent for 12 days
On 21 Feb, NERVTAG minutes show an estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million
24/. Despite knowing this, & despite evidence from Italy of what could happen without a lockdown, the only govt advice remained “wash your hands”.
On 2 March, the PM said on TV: “I must stress, it’s very important that people go about business as usual.”
On 2 March, the PM said on TV: “I must stress, it’s very important that people go about business as usual.”
25/. To understand why the PM said “business as usual”, watch his #GreenwichSpeech on 3 Feb.
He warns against allowing #coronavirus to “trigger a panic” & result in measures “that go beyond what is medically rational” & do “unnecessary economic damage.”
He warns against allowing #coronavirus to “trigger a panic” & result in measures “that go beyond what is medically rational” & do “unnecessary economic damage.”
26/. The story we’ve been fed is that, on 16 March, new findings from Imperial College showed they had underestimated #COVID19 transmission speed & without action the NHS would be overwhelmed & 500,000+ people could die.
There is SOME truth in this story. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1242087735990595584?s=21
There is SOME truth in this story. https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1242087735990595584?s=21
27/. This modelling, by @neil_ferguson at Imperial College, was presented to SAGE on 25 February.
It was intended to show the Reasonable Worst Case & uses an ICU rate of 16% & is based on flu & data from China & Japan.
Despite this warning, the message was “business as usual.”
It was intended to show the Reasonable Worst Case & uses an ICU rate of 16% & is based on flu & data from China & Japan.
Despite this warning, the message was “business as usual.”
28/. When SAGE saw these terrifying predictions, they decided to ignore them.
Was it that they didn’t believe or trust the modelling or was it a desire to push #HerdImmunity?
Either way, they decided to wait until “real” data emerged from Italy & Spain to assess how bad it was.
Was it that they didn’t believe or trust the modelling or was it a desire to push #HerdImmunity?
Either way, they decided to wait until “real” data emerged from Italy & Spain to assess how bad it was.
29/. But the worst case scenario presented to SAGE on 25/2, turned out to be MORE optimistic than the reality.
Data from Italy & emerging UK cases showed the ICU rate was actually DOUBLE what they had estimated.
Here Prof Ferguson explains on 25 March.
Data from Italy & emerging UK cases showed the ICU rate was actually DOUBLE what they had estimated.
Here Prof Ferguson explains on 25 March.
30/. Because #COVID, has a long incubation period, high rate of transmission & is invisible, by the time data is gathered from hospitals locally, it is too late.
The lack of community testing capacity & large numbers of infections arriving unchecked at airports, spelt disaster.
The lack of community testing capacity & large numbers of infections arriving unchecked at airports, spelt disaster.
31/. When, on 16 March, @neil_ferguson published his now infamous report showing that NHS capacity would be overwhelmed, the govt moved to shift tactics...slowly.
"The science has changed” they announced.
But lockdown would not happen until a week later. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1239645972831051789
"The science has changed” they announced.
But lockdown would not happen until a week later. https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1239645972831051789
32/. By blaming it on the science, ministers & the PM were ignoring the fact that - although @neil_ferguson underestimated the ICU rate by 50% - he had nevertheless made clear on 25 Feb, that if #COVID19 was allowed to “move through the population”, the NHS would be overwhelmed.
33/. The new suppression strategy was rolled out & the govt said everything was going to be "ramped-up".
The old strategy - doing nothing apart from encouraging people to wash their hands - could result in up to 500,000 deaths said the govt.
But they'd known this for some time.
The old strategy - doing nothing apart from encouraging people to wash their hands - could result in up to 500,000 deaths said the govt.
But they'd known this for some time.
34/. At the SAGE meeting on 27 February, the Reasonable Worst Case for deaths was estimated at 1% of the potentially infected 80% of the population (around 500,000).
The minutes show that this figure was welcomed(!), since the earlier estimate was 2-3%. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888778/S0379_Eleventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
The minutes show that this figure was welcomed(!), since the earlier estimate was 2-3%. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888778/S0379_Eleventh_SAGE_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
35/ This Reasonable Worst Case would have been known to Cummings when he attended his first SAGE meeting on 5/3.
He would've also known that on 21/2 NERVTAG had estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million
Which is why some of the decisions in this meeting are almost inexplicable.
He would've also known that on 21/2 NERVTAG had estimated death toll of up to 1.3 million
Which is why some of the decisions in this meeting are almost inexplicable.
36/. Minutes of this 5/3 meeting suggest "sustained community transmission was underway” & yet it was decided “there are no scientific grounds to moving from contain to delay”.
Surely there were grounds to start protecting & vulnerable?
Apparently not! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888781/S0381_Thirteenth_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
Surely there were grounds to start protecting & vulnerable?
Apparently not! https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/888781/S0381_Thirteenth_meeting_on_Wuhan_Coronavirus__Covid-19__.pdf
37/. SAGE recognized the risk facing the elderly & vulnerable & the need for “early measures”...YET they recommend there should be a delay of “roughly 2 weeks” before isolating them.
"Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later."
No reason is given for his delay.
"Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later."
No reason is given for his delay.
38/. SAGE recognised "preventing all social interaction in public spaces...would have an effect, but would be very difficult to implement."
Was this advice from Dr Halpern, a central figure in SAGE, who is credited with the concept of "lockdown fatigue".
Was this advice from Dr Halpern, a central figure in SAGE, who is credited with the concept of "lockdown fatigue".
39/. In the same short paragraph, SAGE acknowledges the fact that stopping social interaction would “have an effect” BUT “there is no evidence to suggest that banning very large gatherings would reduce transmission”.
Schools, pubs restaurants etc were kept open for 18 more days.
Schools, pubs restaurants etc were kept open for 18 more days.
40/. Over these 18 days, thousands were infected at big events such as the Cheltenham Festival, Liverpool Athletico, Crufts etc.
Was this sheer incompetence OR was the govt’s aim not to stop infections early but at “just the the right moment” to stop the NHS being overwhelmed?
Was this sheer incompetence OR was the govt’s aim not to stop infections early but at “just the the right moment” to stop the NHS being overwhelmed?
41/. If the govt were attempting to kick start their deadly #HerdImmunity strategy without overwhelming the NHS, they will - in private - be slapping each other on the back.
It brings a chilling new meaning to “We took the right action at the right time.” https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1269782035499028482?s=21
It brings a chilling new meaning to “We took the right action at the right time.” https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1269782035499028482?s=21
42/. The obvious reason that #DominicCummings was in that meeting was because it was the one where decisions affecting policy would be made.
NOTE: All but two of the scientists in the room are the ones we have seen flanking ministers at briefings or defending govt policy on TV.
NOTE: All but two of the scientists in the room are the ones we have seen flanking ministers at briefings or defending govt policy on TV.
43/. Also in the meeting were:
• Ben Warner who worked with #Cummings on the leave campaign & won the NHX contract.
• David Halpern, the man some say is leading the SAGE strategy
• Dominic Cummings. Forget the Rose Garden. This is the real man
• Ben Warner who worked with #Cummings on the leave campaign & won the NHX contract.
• David Halpern, the man some say is leading the SAGE strategy
• Dominic Cummings. Forget the Rose Garden. This is the real man
44/. “I think there has been an element of collusion between the scientific community & politicians"
@RichardHorton1 of @TheLancet, also suggests the scientists are now stepping away from govt in an attempt to maintain their integrity & reputation.
@RichardHorton1 of @TheLancet, also suggests the scientists are now stepping away from govt in an attempt to maintain their integrity & reputation.
45/. On 24 Jan, @TheLancet published a paper on the severity of cases emerging from China (ICU rate of a third of cases).
@richardhorton1’s tweet was seen & commented on by 2 members of SAGE @JeremyFarrar & @PeterHorby.
Did they not mention the ICU rates within NERVTAG & SAGE?
@richardhorton1’s tweet was seen & commented on by 2 members of SAGE @JeremyFarrar & @PeterHorby.
Did they not mention the ICU rates within NERVTAG & SAGE?
46/. The data table SPI-M were using was still not populated for hospitalisation rates by 11 Feb.
NERVTAG first populated a table with ICU rates on 21 Feb.
The SPI-M team used that rate (16%) for that their first model on 25 Feb. The true rate was 30%.
NERVTAG first populated a table with ICU rates on 21 Feb.
The SPI-M team used that rate (16%) for that their first model on 25 Feb. The true rate was 30%.
47/. The fact that so much was known for so long suggests it was either epic incompetence. Or it was by design.
I believe it was - and still is - being done to try & achieve #HerdImmunity.
But this is not the only part of the plan. #HerdImmunityScandal
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736?s=21 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736
I believe it was - and still is - being done to try & achieve #HerdImmunity.
But this is not the only part of the plan. #HerdImmunityScandal
https://twitter.com/stefsimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736?s=21 https://twitter.com/StefSimanowitz/status/1252354324136521736
