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Tech isn’t “leaving” SF to disperse geographically, it’s migrating to the internet. This is a 10+ year trend that is going to continue.
The internet is the frontier, and net-native versions of geographic institutions are the core of settling that frontier.
The internet is the frontier, and net-native versions of geographic institutions are the core of settling that frontier.
Online settlers will look different than physical institutions, but you can understand them via comparison:
Pioneer = Ivy League (undirected network)
Lambda = Traditional College (directed job opportunity improvement)
Twitter = Conferences (publishing and networking)
Pioneer = Ivy League (undirected network)
Lambda = Traditional College (directed job opportunity improvement)
Twitter = Conferences (publishing and networking)
Geographic institutions will all have an online corollary.
Sometimes the online version will be similar in scale to a geographic institution. Occasionally, it will be much larger by being a winner-take-most that becomes similar in scale to the whole group of those institutions.
Sometimes the online version will be similar in scale to a geographic institution. Occasionally, it will be much larger by being a winner-take-most that becomes similar in scale to the whole group of those institutions.
As an example:
SF tech is migrating to the internet more actively this year.
You already could break into the inner circle around startups online, now that’s getting easier (eg @beondeck).
You may be able to remotely break into breakout/big companies now too.
SF tech is migrating to the internet more actively this year.
You already could break into the inner circle around startups online, now that’s getting easier (eg @beondeck).
You may be able to remotely break into breakout/big companies now too.
The interesting questions:
1/ what has already started migrating online?
2/ when can the online settler replace most of the industry (eg Lambda) vs. when will it be equivalent in size to one institution in that industry (eg Pioneer)
3/ what hasn’t migrated yet and how will it?
1/ what has already started migrating online?
2/ when can the online settler replace most of the industry (eg Lambda) vs. when will it be equivalent in size to one institution in that industry (eg Pioneer)
3/ what hasn’t migrated yet and how will it?
A running list of traditional, geography-bound institutions that are migrating to the internet:
Who’d I miss?
Who’d I miss?
Colleges and trade-schools. They teach skills so people can get better careers.
Migrated online with @LambdaSchool. Now you can access a better career from anywhere.
Migrated online with @LambdaSchool. Now you can access a better career from anywhere.
Ivy League liberal-arts schools. A well-rounded education in “how to think” with a network that opens opportunities.
Migrating online with @tylercowen’s Emergent Ventures (and maybe @pioneerdotapp).
Migrating online with @tylercowen’s Emergent Ventures (and maybe @pioneerdotapp).
YCombinator. Get early stage funding, network, and education for starting a startup.
Migrated online with @beondeck. Now you can fast-track to bring an “insider” from anywhere in the world. YC may go remote as well (they started some of this work years ago).
Migrated online with @beondeck. Now you can fast-track to bring an “insider” from anywhere in the world. YC may go remote as well (they started some of this work years ago).
Conferences. Publish your ideas to gain recognition in your industry or network with peers.
Migrated online with @Twitter. Now you can become well connected and well known in your industry from anywhere in the world.
Migrated online with @Twitter. Now you can become well connected and well known in your industry from anywhere in the world.
Watching TV together. Let you relax with friends.
Migrated online with @Twitch. Now you can casually hang out with friends that are halfway across the world.
Migrated online with @Twitch. Now you can casually hang out with friends that are halfway across the world.
Window shopping. Let you discover interesting new things.
Migrated online with @instagram ads and influencers (and @Etsy, @goatapp et al). Product discovery happens on your phone now.
Migrated online with @instagram ads and influencers (and @Etsy, @goatapp et al). Product discovery happens on your phone now.
Specific shopping. Buy something you need.
Migrated online with @amazon. Others have opened in different verticals in the 20 years since, but staying independent of Amazon is an ever-present challenge.
Migrated online with @amazon. Others have opened in different verticals in the 20 years since, but staying independent of Amazon is an ever-present challenge.
Therapy. Help you process challenging experiences and improve mental health.
Starting to migrate online with @talkspace and others. The best therapist for you might be 7 states over.
Starting to migrate online with @talkspace and others. The best therapist for you might be 7 states over.
Primary care physicians. Generally manage your health.
Starting to migrate online with @steadymd and others. Now you can get a doctor that serves your niche goals (lgbtq health, performance athletics, etc.) anywhere in the world.
Starting to migrate online with @steadymd and others. Now you can get a doctor that serves your niche goals (lgbtq health, performance athletics, etc.) anywhere in the world.
Consumer Banking. Manage your finances.
I can’t even list the number of big companies that migrated this behavior online.
Largely true for business banking as well (eg @stripe).
I can’t even list the number of big companies that migrated this behavior online.
Largely true for business banking as well (eg @stripe).
Last era in tech was “remote control for the real world”
Emerging era is “migration to the internet”
Last era was using bits to efficiently organize atoms.
Emerging era is replacing atoms with bits.
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n.b. Both will spawn new important companies. Other trends will too.
Emerging era is “migration to the internet”
Last era was using bits to efficiently organize atoms.
Emerging era is replacing atoms with bits.
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n.b. Both will spawn new important companies. Other trends will too.
What does an online city look like? You could argue that social media established the first online cities.
What does an online house look like? The world of Ready Player One?
What else needs to migrate online?
Impt: online migration won’t replace physical institutions fully.
What does an online house look like? The world of Ready Player One?
What else needs to migrate online?
Impt: online migration won’t replace physical institutions fully.
Forgot my favorite example... Book Clubs, Salons, and Dinner Parties. Debate ideas, learn new things, and listen to smart people.
Migrated online with podcasts. Now you can access dinner party performances that you'd never be invited to in real life. https://twitter.com/Brian_G_Peters/status/1261351541694279680?s=20
Migrated online with podcasts. Now you can access dinner party performances that you'd never be invited to in real life. https://twitter.com/Brian_G_Peters/status/1261351541694279680?s=20
Here’s the fun thing: SF can migrate online without any companies/people moving away from SF. (They will, but that doesn’t matter).
The popular narrative right now is missing the point. It doesn’t matter where the people are, the experiences are migrating online.
The popular narrative right now is missing the point. It doesn’t matter where the people are, the experiences are migrating online.
It’s extremely plausible that most people’s primary ideological allegiance in 200 years will be to an online community.
(Like states for the last several hundred years, and religions or lords before that). https://twitter.com/lukebutler/status/1337629752325255173
(Like states for the last several hundred years, and religions or lords before that). https://twitter.com/lukebutler/status/1337629752325255173
