1/ Bologna recently approved a new sustainable transportation plan (PUMS). It’s a good document that spurred some reflections about transportation planning issues and value-for-money investment in mobility. A thread for transit and bike planning nerds

2/ PUMS (Piano Urbano della Mobilità Sostenibile) are part of a new generation of comprehensive transport planning documents mandated for large cities and metropolitan areas in Italy. They are now compulsory for cities tnat want to access government money for transit.

3/ Bologna's PUMS clearly sets a modal shift goal (both for the inner-city and for the region) linked to a global reduction of 40% in transport related carbon emission by 2030.

4/ The goal is to increase both transit and bike use in all-purpose trips (not just commute) to reduce car usage:

Inner city
21% 28%
5% 18%
42% 22%

Region
13% 19%
5% 14%
57% 41%

5/ To achieve those bold goals, the PUMS envisions large investments in a new transit system based on a tramway network (54km), trolleybuses, regional rail, and suburban BRTs. For bikes, 698 km of protected path should be added to the existing 246 km.

6/ The interesting thing is that both the capital and operational costs of PUMS 2030 scenarios are estimated. And they can tell us something about value-for-money and political priorities

8/ For 1 bn€ (tram), 450 m€ (S-Bahn), 45 m€ (BRTs), 30 m€ (mobility centers) in capital costs

+ 87~131 m€/year in new operating expenditures (up from 220 m€ today)

the PUMS forecast:

+ 2 mil*Km traveled, +167K daily trips (+46%) by transit

9/ The clockface regional rail is the biggest chunk of operating costs increase:

+56~75 m€/year in operating costs (~65 m€ today)
to get
+37K trips/day (+30%); 330 pax*km/day (+12%)

The tramway will save some money, as is cheaper to operate than the bus routes it replaces

10/ On the other hand, the whole bike network will come online for *only* 167m€ adding some

+ / 1mil*km traveled a year

Long time planned but delayed fare integration is a real bargain: +7 M€/year, starting this year (hopefully)

11/ All in all, it appears the money spent on regional rail compared to tramway/bike give a worse return-on-investment, in term of general modal shift. This kind of estimates are slippery, and forecast models can heavily over or underestimate real outcomes.

12/ And beware, I’m probably comparing oranges with apples, as bike trips and rail ones does not cover the same mobility needs both socially and geographically and are often complementary. But it’s worth giving it a thought about it, while we are discussing spending priorities

13/ If you want to know more about the PUMS mobility plan, here is the website (Italian only): https://pumsbologna.it/ 

14/ There is also a little video and a short summary in english (my fellow countrymen are improving!)
https://pumsbologna.it/Sfoglia_la_sintesi/SUMP_Sustainable_Urban_Mobility_Plan_of_metropolitan_Bologna