Thread by @DrewHolden360, New thread.There seems to be a collective forgetting among the media when [...]

New thread.

There seems to be a collective forgetting among the media when it comes to early coronavirus coverage. I dove down the memoryhole for what happened.

They weren’t raising alarms. No one was. Links & screenshots below, along w/ some thoughts on why not. https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1255175620453113859

https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1255175620453113859

To start, @NYTimes on 1/23 begged the question of whether COVID could be as bad as the 2003 SARS outbreak, ending w/ a quote from the US Chamber of Comm in HK Pres saying “it’s too early to panic."

COVID has killed 265x the # of ppl SARS did (& counting) https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-china-economy.html

How China’s Virus Outbreak Could Threaten the Global Economy

Markets have tumbled as investors worry that Chinese shoppers will stay home for the Lunar New Year holiday and beyond. Economists say the possible impact isn’t yet clear.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-china-economy.html

Similarly, on 1/21, @CNBC quoted @WHO's advice that a travel ban was unnecessary. They compared the outbreak to SARS, but said that this time "China has moved more rapidly" ending w/ an expert saying "the impact this time should be less than that of SARS" https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/21/china-coronavirus-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-outbreak-from-wuhan.html

This opening from a 1/24 piece from @latimes staff writer @Emily_Baum speaks for itself, I think. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-01-24/china-coronavirus-panic

Worth pointing out here that our @CDCgov
was taking a similar, muted response, even as more American's displayed concerns, as reported by @MorningConsult on 1/27. https://morningconsult.com/2020/01/27/even-as-cdc-says-risk-of-coronavirus-is-low-in-u-s-worry-begins-to-spread/

My 2-cents is that this reporting from @RonaldBailey of @reason, also on 1/27, strikes the right note (with normal hindsight caution). It provided the available evidence but hesitated to draw any conclusions more than "we'll see" given the paucity of info. https://reason.com/2020/01/27/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-wuhan-coronavirus/

How Worried Should You Be About the Wuhan Coronavirus?

We will soon learn if humanity's increasing biotechnical prowess can prevent a modern pandemic.

https://reason.com/2020/01/27/how-worried-should-you-be-about-the-wuhan-coronavirus/

Back to the not-so-good. @NPR quoted an expert on 1/25 saying that "[t]he general public should not worry at this time" about coronavirus. This expert compared the outbreak to the seasonal flu: https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/01/25/799007842/coronavirus-faqs-do-masks-help-is-the-disease-really-so-mysterious

This sentiment re: seasonal flu v. COVID - which has oft been attributed to conservatives - was broadly common. Here's an example from @LizSzabo, originally for @KHNews but picked up by @USATODAY, @Salon & others, calling season flu "far deadlier": https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/01/24/coronavirus-versus-flu-influenza-deadlier-than-wuhan-china-disease/4564133002/

@washingtonpost on 1/27 quoted the head of Columbia University's Center for Infection and Immunity (
@Columbia_CII) W. Ian Lipkin as saying "it is very unlikely that this will ever reach the level that we annually lose to flu." https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/coronavirus-china-latest-updates/2020/01/27/3634db9a-40a7-11ea-aa6a-083d01b3ed18_story.html

Given risk tolerances & uncertainty, the stock market was really the first indicator to get this one right. That isn't a critique of the media - markets are more jittery & swing far more wildly than media coverage should to - but an interesting fact. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/why-stock-market-worried-coronavirus.html

Why the Stock Market Is So Worried About Coronavirus

History suggests that outbreaks like the one in China can have negative effects that go well beyond their death tolls.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/why-stock-market-worried-coronavirus.html

By my count, @Slate's coverage was particularly egregious given the lack of info. On 1/24 (updated 1/27) @shanpalus advised that it wasn't time to worry &that the outbreak starting in China was "sort of" random. Not sure how well that'll hold up. https://slate.com/technology/2020/01/coronavirus-outbreak-china-sars-worry-level.html

This reporting from @USATODAY on 1/22 - also w/ comparisons to the seasonal flu - resonates with me as emblematic of coverage at the time.

I'm not saying that, given the circumstances @ the time, this was unreasonable, but far from raising the alarm. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/01/22/washington-officials-track-infected-mans-travels-counter-new-virus/4547358002/

No doubt the media getting this wrong was largely a result of everyone else also getting this wrong. I won't pretend to know enough about the models to know if this conf. level was reasonable, but obv the conclusion was wrong.

Here's Dr. Fauci on 1/26: https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/479939-government-health-agency-official-corona-virus-isnt-something-the

This from @politico also seems well-measured to me, if ultimately inadequate given (what I would call) unforeseeable circumstances for a reporter at the time.
@ddiamond faithfully relays the experts but avoids drawing sweeping conclusions: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2020/01/23/is-it-time-to-worry-about-chinese-coronavirus-784593

Is it time to worry about Chinese coronavirus?

White House developed list of Azar, Verma replacements — CMS permits Texas to exclude Planned Parenthood from women's health program

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/politico-pulse/2020/01/23/is-it-time-to-worry-about-chinese-coronavirus-784593

There were a lot of opinion pieces that look bad in retrospect. I won't include all of them here, but this one, from @DrMarcSiegel for @thehill on 1/23, is a good example of how well-respected medical professionals missed. Here's the opening line: https://thehill.com/opinion/healthcare/479581-how-worried-should-we-be-about-the-coronavirus

But the most fundamental issue was trusting China. This, from @juliaholli for @CNN, captures the spirit well: praising China for their handling of the virus, learning from the mistakes of SARS, etc. It gives the image of a new, good-global-citizen China.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/24/asia/china-sars-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

There's been a lot of this sentiment, early on & since. A few examples:

@USATODAY: https://usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/01/coronavirus-covid-19-china-radical-measures-lockdowns-mass-quarantines/2938374001/
@businessinsider: https://businessinsider.com/chinas-coronavirus-quarantines-other-countries-arent-ready-2020-3
more @CNN: https://cnn.com/2020/03/10/asia/china-coronavirus-propaganda-intl-hnk/index.html
@nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x

What China’s coronavirus response can teach the rest of the world

Researchers are studying the effects of China’s lockdowns to glean insights about controlling the viral pandemic.

https://usatoday.com/story/news/world/2020/04/01/coronavirus-covid-19-china-radical-measures-lockdowns-mass-quarantines/2938374001/

The only problem is that this mentality has been thoroughly debunked by both @WSJ and @axios. China screwed up enormously and lied early on. Too many US outlets took them at face-value.

Links to both are below.
WSJ: https://wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932
Axios: https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html

Timeline: The early days of China's coronavirus outbreak and cover-up

Serious measures were delayed for about 3 weeks.

https://wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-started-chinas-early-coronavirus-missteps-11583508932

So I guess my takeaways are:

1) Yes, the media & experts were wrong about COVID in the early aughts
2) Given China's lies & forecasting limitations they may have been reasonably wrong &
3) We must stop trusting Chinese propaganda & infusing journalism w. sweeping conjecture

It wouldn’t be right not to also spotlight how terrible @WHO has handled all of this. I’ve got whole threads dedicated to the subject, but here’s just a few w/ time stamps

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