Read on Twitter
Each like = my current opinion on one House race.
AL-02: This race kind of illustrates the state of the current GOP. Roby's retirement is a win for ideological uniformity, but Trump hugging blurs the lines between the establishment and the anti-establishment. Hoping for Barry Moore here.
FL-26: This race just keeps bringing the good news. Gimenez is an A+ recruit electorally - although he is quite moderate ideologically - and Powell has ethical issues that seem to dog many of the freshmen Democrats. I'd peg it as a tossup, and I'm cautiously optimistic.
FL-03: It's interesting that the field here wasn't cleared by a well-known state legislator. The bench is quite strong, but instead we have a faceoff between relative no-names. My first impulse is opposition to Sapp, but I don't really care who wins all that much.
AZ-01: As has been the case in other cycles, the GOP approach here is Pinal-centrism and a lack of interest overall. Mathis drew this seat to elect a Democrat, but it still voted for Trump, so I'm surprised there isn't more interest in recruiting someone who can put it in play.
PA-08: Granville seemed good, but while I can personally forgive his previous comments on Trump, it might be a liability. Jim Bognet seems ok, although he needs to hire someone who can actually make ads.
NJ-03: It's ridiculous that any prognosticator thinks this race is Lean D. Kim is a party-line liberal who barely won in a district that is quite literally shifting under his feet. We need a term for people who ignorantly think that Biden is going to cause a Dem WWC resurgence.
NY-11: Malliotakis is one of the greatest disappointments of the cycle. Her strategy is really baffling. She is just coasting on name recognition and connections without hitting the phones for fundraising. People who coast on lean are terrible candidates.
PA-10: DePasquale is shaping up to be the greatest Dem flop of the cycle. First his campaign raises bupkis and now he has ethics issues involving non-federal cash that he used for the House race. Just another lesson to not extrapolate low-level statewide margins to federal races.
WI-03: Republicans aren't doing very well with recruitment, but the idea that this is Safe D is kind of ridiculous. Even a B-list challenger is going to keep this close, especially with some outside assistance. Besides, beating Kind now is a bench-breaker for Dems in 2022.
IL-14: If we win, it won't be for lack of trying.
IL-15: As @nwfconservative noted, this is one of the most ignored ideological upgrades of the cycle. Mary Miller won the primary in a landslide with little media attention, but her husband is a stalwart ideological conservative in the IL House. Big win for ideological uniformity.
TX-17: Pete Sessions was decent as a Congressman, but blatantly carpetbagging halfway across the state after a loss is unacceptable. Renee Swann is where it's at, folks.
NC-11: Meadows retiring kind of sucks, but I'm not totally sold on Bennet. Madison Cawthorn is impressive, although establishment-leaning. That said, North Carolina likes that type of profile and he might be a good fit statewide after two or three terms.
ME-02: I'm legitimately irritated about our recruiting here. Crafts' fundraising is bad and Brakey is a terrible fit for the district. Mike Thibodeau or Ann LePage would have put this seat on the front burner, but now our only hope is Trump coattails.
NY-19: Our recruiting is also pretty bad here. Kyle Van de Water would be solid if he could raise some money, but the Q1 reports were not encouraging. Just because NY redistricting is going to be brutal doesn't mean we shouldn't contest winnable seats.
MN-07: My gut feeling is that we are gonna win here. In fact, I was kind of surprised Peterson decided to run again. His whole schtick about being a GOP target convincing him to run is just a made up yarn to cover up his partisanship.
WI-07: My gut feeling is about a 12 point win in May, assuming the special isn't postponed. Safe R in November.
MI-05: State Rep. Tim Kelly (R) has the potential to put this in play if Trump does well, although it is still a reach overall.
GA-06: My gut feeling is a narrow loss here in November, although I doubt the presidential baseline changes that much from 2016.
TX-22: Nehls is probably our best bet here given that Wall's campaign skills are quite mediocre. It's the type of seat with a large GOP base, but one that is getting slowly overwhelmed by demographic changes. Still Lean R for now.
NY-15: Vote for Ruben Diaz Sr!
TX-23: It's really unfortunate that Gonzales was forced into a runoff, but whatever. Oil and gas anger at Biden could help us.
NH-01: Matt Mowers is turning out to be surprisingly competent. I wouldn't surprised if it ends up being a nail biter.
KY-06: This is Safe R and disregard anyone who says otherwise.
KS-01: Is this the most undercovered House race in the country?
NJ-02: I'd peg Van Drew as the favorite, but his voting record thus far is warm vomit. He's gonna have to start towing the party line.
UT-04: For a seat that is probably going to get shored up by redistricting, the field here is pretty scattered. I would probably vote for Owens or Coleman.
FL-19: As expected, there's a clown-car, but there's a lot of great candidates. I would vote for Donalds.
VA-07: I'm not as bearish on Freitas as some. And besides, it'll be great to have CfG spend in a general election.
A couple tweets aren't connected to the thread, but since I count 29 that do show up, I'll do 11 more.
PA-01: Fitzpatrick certainly "lucked out" although he was already favored to some extent. Him and Mike understand the pulse of the district quite well.
PA-07: As with all seats drawn by ostensibly nonpartisan Democrats, a fair degree of caution is important. Trump might carry it in 2020, so a GOP win is possible.
IL-13: Davis just scraped by in 2018, so this is in play to some extent. Personally I don't see Londrigan's appeal, but I'm also not a white liberal opening an 8th bottle of chardonnay. That said, neither are most of the voters in the 13th.
IL-12: This is safe for the foreseeable future, although it might be merged with the 15th to some extent. Bost and Miller are both great, so I hate to see one of them go.
NC-08: There has been some talk that this could be competitive, but with Fayettesville static to slightly right-trending, Hudson is the favorite. Incidentally, the Dem is a former judge, which just goes to show you how laughable it is when any liberal judge claims impartiality.
IA-04: King is certainly in trouble, but there are enough challengers to make me question whether he will pull off a plurality win (over 35%). If he loses, it will probably be because he was stripped of his committee assignments.
KS-02: For all Watkins' issues, LaTurner's challenge isn't going that great. His Q1 report showed very little raised, so my guess is Watkins will win renomination if LaTurner can't turn things around.
SC-01: If there is one "touted recruit" that should lose her primary, it is Nancy Mace. People who undermine pro-life messaging at critical points in the incrementalist approach should be shunned. Vote Kathy Landing.
NE-02: It is almost like this race has dropped off the map, which is odd considering Bacon only won narrowly in 2018. Part of that could be that this is one seat where redistricting will favor us in 2022.
MI-10: One of the more underrated chances for Republicans to diversify the caucus is to elect Shane Hernandez.
HI-02: Tulsi Gabbard needs to run for reelection.
OR-02: The primary here is actually pretty important. Knute Buehler is pro-abortion, which is unacceptable in a safe seat like this. #StopBuehler
GA-14: The primary here is playing out in more normal fashion than some of the other sleepy races, though I won't try to handicap it. The main benefit to Graves' retirement is more leeway in redistricting.
TN-01: Another diversity opportunity: the frontrunners are John Clark, who is of Cuban descent, and Diana Harshberger.
CA-25: Watch the outcome in the special here. The GOP has an excellent candidate and if the Democrats lose, it might cause Dems to pivot towards reopening things enough to let them ballot-harvest again.
CA-21: The combination of A-list GOP recruiting and ethical lapses on the part of freshman Rep. TJ Cox put this in the tossup column. Any GOP improvement with Latinos is mostly likely to show here, largely due to parochial issues with water rights.
PA-17: The GOP surprisingly nabbed a good recruit against Conor Lamb in the form of Navy vet Sean Parnell. Neither have had gangbusters fundraising, so I expect the presidential topline to matter quite a bit.
MO-02: If there is an upside to letting Josh Hawley coast his way to victory in 2018 instead of actually running a decent campaign, it's that Ann Wagner ran for reelection. We probably would have lost the seat then or in 2020. Wagner should win and get shored up in redistricting.
TX-07: Wesley Hunt is a contender for best GOP recruit of the cycle, so I expect this to be pretty competitive.
