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26/n…
The worst case: Jio goes to zero, it negatively impacts FB’s marketcap by 0.90%. The prevalence of WhatsApp in India is unlike any other I’ve seen. WhatsApp to India is what probably Michael Jackson and Seinfeld were to America - A Culturally Influential Game Changer!…
The worst case: Jio goes to zero, it negatively impacts FB’s marketcap by 0.90%. The prevalence of WhatsApp in India is unlike any other I’ve seen. WhatsApp to India is what probably Michael Jackson and Seinfeld were to America - A Culturally Influential Game Changer!…
27/n…
I won’t be surprised if India becomes the primary hub for FB to test its payment network and maybe its currency, Libra. Don’t count “Dating” out either! No one knows about Tinder in rural India...
I won’t be surprised if India becomes the primary hub for FB to test its payment network and maybe its currency, Libra. Don’t count “Dating” out either! No one knows about Tinder in rural India...
28/n…
I have no special insight here, but a super-app like WeChat is at least a minuscule possibility - a huge optionality for FB. If not, it’s not a requisite for FB to succeed further...
I have no special insight here, but a super-app like WeChat is at least a minuscule possibility - a huge optionality for FB. If not, it’s not a requisite for FB to succeed further...
29/n…
So why India is of interest to $FB?
Many people focus a lot on ARPU; it’s a wrong metric to focus on when you look at international growth. You have to see things in context of ROIC…
So why India is of interest to $FB?
Many people focus a lot on ARPU; it’s a wrong metric to focus on when you look at international growth. You have to see things in context of ROIC…
30/n…
That is the reason why great management teams at $BAM, $MSFT, $AAPL $AMZN, $GOOG, $SPOT, $BLK, $BX, $CG and $NFLX are all bullish on India…
That is the reason why great management teams at $BAM, $MSFT, $AAPL $AMZN, $GOOG, $SPOT, $BLK, $BX, $CG and $NFLX are all bullish on India…
31/n…
Indian Economy - A Small Backdrop: India’s economy has grown and so has it’s headline stock indices - Nifty and Sensex. India is among the top 10 great investible countries where indexing works. Here are Nifty50 and Sensex Graphs:
Indian Economy - A Small Backdrop: India’s economy has grown and so has it’s headline stock indices - Nifty and Sensex. India is among the top 10 great investible countries where indexing works. Here are Nifty50 and Sensex Graphs:
32/n…
And however flawed, corrupt or poor a country is, wherever indexing works, it’s somewhat reasonable to assume that there is some economic system and rule of law are in place that keep the economic engine running…
And however flawed, corrupt or poor a country is, wherever indexing works, it’s somewhat reasonable to assume that there is some economic system and rule of law are in place that keep the economic engine running…
33/n…
Even fair to argue that somewhat meritocracy is in place because a lot of these businesses in Indices are run by first-gen self-made entrepreneurs. And I can say so because my Dad grew up in slums/projects of New Delhi and has done well to for himself…
Even fair to argue that somewhat meritocracy is in place because a lot of these businesses in Indices are run by first-gen self-made entrepreneurs. And I can say so because my Dad grew up in slums/projects of New Delhi and has done well to for himself…
34/n...
India has always paid its debt ahead of due dates and has never defaulted on its obligations. Barring some catastrophe, neither it is ever likely to default because of the conservative nature of the Indians…
India has always paid its debt ahead of due dates and has never defaulted on its obligations. Barring some catastrophe, neither it is ever likely to default because of the conservative nature of the Indians…
35/n…
India’s Debt-to-GDP has consistently stayed at ~66% while it’s GDP has increased at fastest rates in the world. India is among the conservatively-run economies. It lowers the consumption compared with the developed/some developing countries, but also lowers the risk…
India’s Debt-to-GDP has consistently stayed at ~66% while it’s GDP has increased at fastest rates in the world. India is among the conservatively-run economies. It lowers the consumption compared with the developed/some developing countries, but also lowers the risk…
36/n…
Why has FB decided to invest now?
What’s intrigued me to write this thread is the timing of the deal. Jio has connected 1.35Bn Indians through its fiber - that’s the primary reason. One of the other reasons is that while the US enjoyed a booming decade…
Why has FB decided to invest now?
What’s intrigued me to write this thread is the timing of the deal. Jio has connected 1.35Bn Indians through its fiber - that’s the primary reason. One of the other reasons is that while the US enjoyed a booming decade…
37/n...
India’s economy has been just fine, and since 2016, we’ve faced an economic slowdown. Markets may do what they do, but everyone knows the US is going into a recession; no one knows how deep/how long…
India’s economy has been just fine, and since 2016, we’ve faced an economic slowdown. Markets may do what they do, but everyone knows the US is going into a recession; no one knows how deep/how long…
38/n…
Long-term, I stay bullish on the US more than any other country in the world. I’m not a macro guy, but at the moment, Zuckerberg is right that it’s one of the most opportune time to look at investing in India…
Long-term, I stay bullish on the US more than any other country in the world. I’m not a macro guy, but at the moment, Zuckerberg is right that it’s one of the most opportune time to look at investing in India…
39/n…
Look at the 40-Year graph here that compares the US GDP Growth, Oil Prices, India’s GDP Growth, and the US 10 yr bond yield: (Graph from @MarcellusInvest )
Source:
Look at the 40-Year graph here that compares the US GDP Growth, Oil Prices, India’s GDP Growth, and the US 10 yr bond yield: (Graph from @MarcellusInvest )
Source:
40/n…
“The red arrows are the 4 economic booms we’ve had in India. 1st: 1982-86, 2nd: 1993-96, 3rd: 2003-08, 4th: 2009-11. What’s remarkable is that before every boom, the US had a recession…
“The red arrows are the 4 economic booms we’ve had in India. 1st: 1982-86, 2nd: 1993-96, 3rd: 2003-08, 4th: 2009-11. What’s remarkable is that before every boom, the US had a recession…
41/n…
Why does American recession leads to Indian boom? There are 3 things that an American recession does to a poor country like India. 1st - Low oil prices, which currently will be a 3% GDP tailwind for India…
Why does American recession leads to Indian boom? There are 3 things that an American recession does to a poor country like India. 1st - Low oil prices, which currently will be a 3% GDP tailwind for India…
42/n…
2nd thing that a US recession does for India is - American Bond Yields collapse. It went from 2.5% to negative. It forces US fund managers to put capital in Asia…
2nd thing that a US recession does for India is - American Bond Yields collapse. It went from 2.5% to negative. It forces US fund managers to put capital in Asia…
43/n…
We’ve seen wherever the no. of deaths are going down, the market is soaring 25% within a few days - we’ve seen that in Korea, Philippines. We’ve seen Seth Klarman, James Montier talk about moving some capital out of the US markets to Asia…
We’ve seen wherever the no. of deaths are going down, the market is soaring 25% within a few days - we’ve seen that in Korea, Philippines. We’ve seen Seth Klarman, James Montier talk about moving some capital out of the US markets to Asia…
44/n…
3rd - When Fed cuts rates, Reserve Bank of India also does to stimulate economies. As we look out 6 months, 12 months out, 2 years out, I think we will see India’s 5th boom.”
~Saurabh Mukherjea, @MarcellusInvest
...
3rd - When Fed cuts rates, Reserve Bank of India also does to stimulate economies. As we look out 6 months, 12 months out, 2 years out, I think we will see India’s 5th boom.”
~Saurabh Mukherjea, @MarcellusInvest
...
45/n…
While I have no doubt that the US will grow, I suspect India’s growth to be higher, and that makes sense because we’ve digital infra in place with 1/6th the size of the US economy with 5x the population…
While I have no doubt that the US will grow, I suspect India’s growth to be higher, and that makes sense because we’ve digital infra in place with 1/6th the size of the US economy with 5x the population…
46/n…
One more positive that I see have come out for India during Covid crisis is: Rational people of the world have begun taking note of how India is handling Covid-19. You can either keep watching news or look at the reality on the ground…
One more positive that I see have come out for India during Covid crisis is: Rational people of the world have begun taking note of how India is handling Covid-19. You can either keep watching news or look at the reality on the ground…
47/n...
It’s an extreme undertaking to implement lockdown in a country of 1.35Bn people with 20 different languages and 100s of dialects to unite against a single/common enemy - Covid-19…
It’s an extreme undertaking to implement lockdown in a country of 1.35Bn people with 20 different languages and 100s of dialects to unite against a single/common enemy - Covid-19…
48/n…
Chaos in many places is inevitable because we’re not as civilized as Scandinavians. Here is what @BillGates wrote about how India has handled Covid:
Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bill-gates-writes-to-pm-modi-commends-his-leadership-in-dealing-with-covid-19-1669905-2020-04-22
Chaos in many places is inevitable because we’re not as civilized as Scandinavians. Here is what @BillGates wrote about how India has handled Covid:
Source: https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/bill-gates-writes-to-pm-modi-commends-his-leadership-in-dealing-with-covid-19-1669905-2020-04-22
49/n...
This sort of disaster management definitely instills a lot of confidence in the business leaders like Hastings, Flatt, Gates, Zuckerberg and Bezos...
This sort of disaster management definitely instills a lot of confidence in the business leaders like Hastings, Flatt, Gates, Zuckerberg and Bezos...
50/n...
Usually, I keep my opinions to myself and present smarter people’s opinions; I've tried to assimilate information here.
I wrote this thread on @JerryCap 's suggestion, so blame him for hacking your feed today. ;)
The trolls will be ignored like dog isht!
THE END
Usually, I keep my opinions to myself and present smarter people’s opinions; I've tried to assimilate information here.
I wrote this thread on @JerryCap 's suggestion, so blame him for hacking your feed today. ;)
The trolls will be ignored like dog isht!
THE END
