1\\ History rhymes.

COVID-19 is new, but a similar panic swept the world in the 1970s

It featured the same experts, the same dazzling models, and led to monumental human suffering and forced sterilization programs

It was called The Club of Rome.

A thread....

2\\ In the 1960s, neo-Malthusianism was in vogue: population growth is geometric, but resources are finite, so the world was heading to mass famine within a decade

The 1968 smash hit "The Population Bomb" Paul Ehrlich predicted hundreds of millions dead in the 1970s

3\\ Shortly after Ehrlich's book, the world was gripped by findings from an elite think tank called the The Club of Rome. It confirmed that the world was hurtling towards mass famine and war. Like the Bill Gates-funded @IHME_UW today, this panel of experts was beyond reproach.

4\\It's hard to exaggerate how unquestionable these claims were. EVERY smart & decent person believed them. To ask for proof that population growth led to poverty was received as warmly as asking for proof that lockdowns slow the spread of COVID19

It was too obvious to need proof

5\\ A "Population control" fad swept the world, led by the western elite. Governments declared national emergencies (sound familiar?). NGOs made grant money contingent on recipient countries *sterilizing* their citizens:

5\\ ...China instituted its infamous One Child Policy, depriving hundreds of millions of families the joy of multiple children. All of this, it must be said, was applauded as noble and deeply humane by the western press and intelligentsia.

6\\ Yet a glance at the data would have disproved the theory. Yes, India was dense and poor, but Hong Kong was dense and rich. There is approximately *no* link between population density and poverty. In fact, population growth enables specialization, the very source of prosperity.

7\\ Similarly with "limited resources". Economists had known for two generations that what matters is not how much "stuff" you have, but how you arrange it.

We didn't leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones, nor stop burning whale oil because we ran out of whales

8\\ From the day The Club of Rome published its models, economists pointed out its flaws. E.g., it gave no account to future advances in human ingenuity (like @IHME_UW models using only Wuhan, Lombardy, and Spain as their inputs)

But these criticisms did not make the headlines.

9\\ You know how the story ended: the following decades brought not famine, but the largest poverty reductions in human history. Paul Ehrlich never admitted he was wrong. Sterilization programs were quietly abandoned.

10\\ What are the similarities to COVID-19?

Obvious beliefs go unexamined
Apocalyptic predictions
A starring role for elites
Expanded powers for gov
Paternalistic policies
Fancy computer models
Refusal to compare beliefs to data
Immense human suffering