.
Covid19 Corona SarsCov2 Sars2 THREAD #2
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thread 1 from Jan28 to Apr06
thread 2 from Apr07
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#Covid19 #Corona #SarsCov2 #Sars2
THREAD #1 Jan28-Apr06 - First tweet Jan 28
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222151233076715521
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THREAD#1 since Jan28 - 17th tweet on Feb 19: 73325 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1230048883717345280
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THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 34th tweet on March 6: outside China 8500 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1235915734976471041
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THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 57th tweet March 11: Italy !!! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1237752560410333184 .
THREAD#1 (since Jan28) 65th tweet March 12th: 127,863 infected. Average doubling took 9.3 days: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1238230727709294592
China: containment SUCCESSFUL !
THREAD#1 (since Jan 28) tweet 78: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239005558088388608 .
dead: 1 jumbo jet crash / day, doubling every 3.5 days. March 15 tweet #87 of THREAD#1 (since Jan28) https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239126957524242433 .
THREAD#1 is 50 days old, 106th tweet: 167907 infected https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239371740893102081 .
THREAD#1 tweet #117: "tenfold every ten days = doubling every 3 days" https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239764804400709633 .
Singapore had the HIGHEST number cases outside China initially! THREAD#1 tweet#127 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1239821815238799361 .
Germany exponential explosion 27% per day. 14k cases. March 20th. #THREAD#1 tweet#170
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241028315340779520 .
13% CFR (Lethality) worldwide = 14,455 dead / 111,413 closed cases, with an outcome. Tweet#189 in THREAD#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1241880179456258051 .
Tests per 1 million population
UAE 13000, SouthKorea 6000, Australia 4500, Italy 3500, Germany 2000, Austria 1800, UK 1000, Iran 1000, France 600, Finland 500, USA 300, Vietnam 160, Japan 120, SouthAfrica 110, Colombia 80, Brazil 14.
Tweet#207 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1242571215312650240
67 --> 11 --> 4 --> 2 days, for each 100k infected. Tweet#231 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1243316600943579142 .
> 50 doctors died ! Tweet#245 of thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244162571780964354 .
SouthKorea SUCCESS: down to < 100 new cases / day!! (population 51 million) Tweet#258 of thread#1, March 30: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244686550644011008 .
6800 free ICU beds with ventilators, 951 in use for #Covid19 cases. Germany March 30. Tweet#270 of Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1244939908281761792 .
855,007 cases on April 1st. Two tenfolds and one doubling, since thread#1 beginning. Tweet#279: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245131955542384640 .
Germany April 1st:
(RL) 71784 inf, 775 dead, 10683 recovered.
(RKI) 61913 inf; +4615 new=+8.1%; 583 dead.
(JHU) inf 71808, dead 775, recovrd 16100.
(WOM) 2675 serious=4.9%. 775 dead=4.6% tCFR.
THREE Tweets #280-283 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1245185382624436226 .
Example born 1970-1980:

Lucky:
84.2% mild (~roll a dice, get NO six)
0.6% no symptom at all (1 of 167 people)

Likely lasting damage:
14.4% severe (~flip 3 coins, all heads up)
0.8% critical (friend of friend, if all had 11 friends)

Tweet#305 of Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246012627479941121
Infection channel percentages approx 47 pre + 6 asympt + 38 sympt + 10 envir = portions of R0=2.0.
Tweet#310 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246256339627716672 .
Countries AND regions comparison, loglin plots. Yes, different amounts of testing causes very different ABSOLUTE numbers; but not different GRADIENT = steepness. (Yes, INCREASE of testing temporarily causes SOME extra gradient). Tweet#318 of thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639180077244421 .
#TestingCapacity increase calculator NEW sheet. Avg increase FI>AT>FR>DE>IT>UAE in 18-23 days until today.

Please extend more countries: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pr76pkb3LBTpgmcMtYRTvG_g7C5CjDoAsG1WjFHiPig/ (File ... Make a copy ...).

💙Thanks a LOT to @_Lady_Charlotte for updated numbers: https://twitter.com/_Lady_Charlotte/status/1247554488522637312 !
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany on 401 districts level: #Prevalence & #Mortality, plus whole country simple statistics; auto-updated. Tweet#319 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246639968702861312 new pics: screenshots 14/April/2020 - now also googlesheet shortcut at http://tiny.cc/kreise  URL abbreviator
Germany crossed 100k known infected on April 5th - Tweet#320 of Thread#1: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1246883964910010368
Above summarizes 330 tweets with focus on numbers (infected dead tested...). Thread#1 contains other viewpoints too. Use above as jump targets.

NOW BACK to the VERY BEGINNING:
IF countries make mistakes then the 1st days are worst, due to avalanches of later-cascaded infections.
4474 cases on January 28th = my first screenshot of JohnsHopkins dashboard = tweet#2 of thread#1 = obviously the #NewCoronaVirus was conceived to be a serious problem already. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222178443586080768

"Disaster movies start with scientists being ignored"
Initially the #ExponentialGrowth was 50-54% PER DAY (perhaps also because of the catching up of "known infected" with the "yet uncounted infected"). Tweet#3 in Thread#1 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222180706467680256 . Jan28th.
Some #ExponentialFitFunctions, early phase:
+48%/day infected, China
+35%/day infected elsewhere (but: see previous tweet)
+26%/day recovered
+39%/day deaths
needs: LogLin plot !
prediction: SIR model = not unlimited growth !
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1222510924474601477 = Tweet#6 Thread#1. Jan29th.
Intro: #DoublingDays easier concept than %growth
2.21 DDs = infected China
2.90 DDs = infected elsewhere
2.51 DDs = recovered China
2.60 DDs = deaths China
https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1223566413274714113 tweet#7 thread#1, Feb1st: more data = better fit; known cases catching up. Still #ExponentialGrowth!
Example 5 phases #epidemics: Curve BEGINS as #ExponentialGrowth then turned to #LinearGrowth by intervention. Then enough people understand: Once R0<1 epidemics can die out. Until re-imported...

RealWorldData neighbor-neighbor province #Jiangsu #江苏省 (capital #Nanjing #南京市)
N.B.: The "history approach" of thread#1 was interrupted for >ONE week, in order to write a long text about all this. I have possibly missed really important news between April 6th and April 15th.

Sorry for incomplete and delayed ... news. Only some highlights, following.
A trustworthy CoronaApp MUST be OpenSource! https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1247682098829430785
Herd immunity (without vaccine) = wrong. https://twitter.com/tagesthemen/status/1247632362076135424
Hey you moronic #CoronaDeniers out there: "just like the flu", right? https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1247884285333266434
Surviving Corona but "crippled for life" can be an outcome. "Don't listen to the maniacs" says survivor @FrauDoktorJulie who describes herself as an "old, frail woman" now, after #Covid19: https://twitter.com/FrauDoktorJulie/status/1247923014630551555
Northermost German #SchleswigHolstein played with fire, discussing EasterParties of 10 people. Nothing might come from it OR additional deaths 20-30 days later. https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248343731717144576

Some #EasterDeaths will have been caused likely by simple-minded, mask-less, EasterShoppers...
New & interesting study with N=1010 in a small village "Gangelt" (population 11,634) which was the second Hotspot in Germany - not ski but carneval maniacs ;-)

Much criticism of @hbergprotokoll has been published in past days, one is this early article https://twitter.com/Karl_Lauterbach/status/1248602029783580674
IF their 0.37% mortality was correct (so 1 in 270 population dies) and ALL countries had an equally good health system as Germany, and R0=3, then this " #LowMortality" (which maniac called that low??)...

would cause 19 million deaths minimum IF not stopped https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248421408230670336
LateApril / earlyMay #EasterDeaths are not unlikely- due to densely packed supermarkets, with EasterShopping fanatics. AND: Who had been trained by public egoists (politicians experts influencers) to repeat the silly "masks don't protect ME" barbarism.
:-( https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248427572309815302
Some (minor) misuse of German CoronaHelp money. Scammers' phishing site fooled 4000 companies; supermarket billionaire(!) asking for >10^8 Euros support; and CAR companies are TAKING public money but PAYING "profit dividends" to shareholders! #DarkSide 😱 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1248544815656157184
infected = 0.3% in Austrian random, representative PCR testing with N=1544 people, they found 5 infected (one in 309). "prevalence study". April 1-6 https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html
Coronavirus in Österreich: Wie hoch ist die Dunkelziffer?

In Österreich sind deutlich mehr Menschen mit dem Coronavirus infiziert als die offizielle Statistik ausweist. Laut einer Dunkelziffer-Studie sind es knapp dreimal so viele Menschen. Von Clemens...

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/oesterreich-corona-101.html
"SARS-CoV-2 infects T lymphocytes through its spike protein-mediated membrane fusion" @nature 07 April 2020

"COVID-19 patients had very low T-cells" https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016
Some countries are more progressed than others, in handling their first wave https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248913565227966466
Gangelt study in some cases found surprisingly short incubation periods. My hypothesis: Weakened immune system, due to intoxication with 🍺🍻🍷🥂🍸🍹 https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1249517100458225665
Hello @TiloJung - any updates about this? Is the situation still the same? Are any of the people in this video ill now? How many family members have they infected? Is that place controlled by police at all? Or must citizens organize private militia, lol ? https://twitter.com/TiloJung/status/1247568918685929475
Might be OUTDATED, it's 1 month old. But still... great: https://twitter.com/radio_ORANGE/status/1239137714303311872
... by order of the DALEKS ... 🤣 https://twitter.com/Sandford_Police/status/1246125769539162113
oops ... even DEATH COUNTS can be under-estimated https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1247458186300456960
#JackDorsey is moving $1,000,000,000 worth of equity to fund global #Covid19 relief

Bravo @jack 🙏👏

Twitter cofounder & CEO https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey https://twitter.com/jack/status/1247616214769086465
PLEASE you 'democratic' majority, sit down NOW & THINK HARD for at least 1 HOUR, how it happened that you & your loved ones voted for DESPICABLE MORONS, for ALL your lives.

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD UK PEOPLE. You! https://twitter.com/Linuzifer/status/1247271419957915653
R0 = 3.8 to 8.9 ?!

"Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9)."
"Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions." https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1247872359312351232
Get "paid sick leave" doctor's certificate ON THE PHONE. Do NOT walk into the doctor's office for that! https://twitter.com/BMG_Bund/status/1242744635044384770
#Canada: "$2000 / person month" is the right amount?

--> Chapter "(2.8) #PandemicBasicIncome"

in http://tiny.cc/ptools  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8

FOUR months to get infection numbers to ZERO? China needed 38 days only ... Anyways, very interesting: https://twitter.com/BradReason/status/1244813791029755906
German voices AGAINST #HerdImmunityWithoutVaccine " #DurchSeuchung"
Interesting thread: https://twitter.com/AscotBlack/status/1250068116706660355

( also see chapters (1.2.3) (2.2) and (3) in http://tiny.cc/ptools  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/pandemic-tools-for-minds-ptfm-v12-8054724344a8 )
Selected a few of my tweets on that. Scroll UP from this, 9 tweets same topic: https://twitter.com/drandreaskruger/status/1250758018985127938
Swiss Doctor MUST READ

"XiJinping was still nice when he said that Europe had quickly become the global center of the pandemic because of its ' #narcissism'...
...add: because of its arrogance, ignorance and unspeakable know-it-all."

Prof #PaulRobertVogt: https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
COVID-19 - eine Zwischenbilanz oder eine Analyse der Moral, der medizinischen Fakten, sowie der...

DMZ – FORSCHUNG / MEDIZIN / POLITIK ¦ GASTKOMMENTAR von Prof. Dr. med. Dr. h.c. Paul Robert Vogt Überlegungen eines besorgten Schweizer Bürgers Vorwort: wieso nehme ich überhaupt Stellung? Aus 5...

https://www.mittellaendische.ch/2020/04/07/covid-19-eine-zwischenbilanz-oder-eine-analyse-der-moral-der-medizinischen-fakten-sowie-der-aktuellen-und-zuk%C3%BCnftigen-politischen-entscheidungen/
Some Europeans are more humane than others: https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248658937903230977
PLEASE you 'democracy majorities', sit down & THINK HARD for one 3 hours: How could it happen that you & your loved ones have elected MONSTERS for ALL your lives?

Please. We need YOU to wake up!

YOU are responsible for many DEAD US AMERICANS -you VOTERS. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248708154084536322
64:36 ~ male vs female #Covid19deaths
(even though infections are approx 50:50) https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248688175649828871
approx 15% severe+critical; 85% mild+none
https://twitter.com/HarryIWood/status/1248720123097219073
"not rolling a six on multiple dice rolls" = I made a simple(!) maths tutorial what those probabilities mean (IF you are NOT a total egoist, i.e.) when combined:
http://tiny.cc/stoch  = https://medium.com/@andreaskruger/stochastics-and-quarantine-buddies-2ced2c20da78
Attention #maths: AVERAGES can be an illusion !

Example: in "scaleFree degreeDistribution networks" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Complex_network#Scale-free_networks many observables are NOT Gauss distributed - so there IS NO "center" around which the data clusters.

Look at a real world example: https://twitter.com/tomaspueyo/status/1248661596177485824
micro-droplets, aerosols - #MaskHaters are dangerous - and the LOUDER they speak, the more risky they are https://twitter.com/ilkeryoldas/status/1248795900882944000
Most probable cause of death in US now:
Not heart attack, not cancer - but #Covid19 https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1247923473273565184
In #Wuhan it was found that mortality & lethality rate for staff & patients fell only after the WORK SHIFT was SHORTENED to 6 hours.

No one can concentrate for 12 hours.

Arrogant Europeans: #LearnFromChina! https://twitter.com/Gode_fridus/status/1248859663753457664
Some #covid19patients have very low #Tcells: Means your immune system itself gets attacked; harder to clear the virus out of your system; and more easily infected by other things. https://twitter.com/CurlyJungleJake/status/1248161735455830016
leading to #ImmunoSuppression ... https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1248890389760802816
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