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when COV is all said and done, there will be questions:
how dangerous was the disease?
what was the cost of the things we did to try to stop it?
then we will have to ask: was it worth it?
early data does not make that answer look like "yes" for most of the world
how dangerous was the disease?
what was the cost of the things we did to try to stop it?
then we will have to ask: was it worth it?
early data does not make that answer look like "yes" for most of the world
the UK provides a control set. they did not panic into lockdown.
they bet on herd immunity and an end of flu season to attenuate this virus just as it does so many others.
and they look to be winning that bet quite handily.
they bet on herd immunity and an end of flu season to attenuate this virus just as it does so many others.
and they look to be winning that bet quite handily.
despite hysterical alleged leaks of being overwhelmed and plague like death rates, instead, it's all been handled so far with little problem save that caused by panic.
"keep calm and carry on" seems to be good advice today just as in the blitz.
"keep calm and carry on" seems to be good advice today just as in the blitz.
alas, the UK are now losing the plot as well and backing down on their sensible plans despite the evidence that they are already working.
but the dutch will do so as well. we're going to have things that look like "control groups" https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/dutch-embrace-herd-immunity-as-dire-death-warning-prompts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
but the dutch will do so as well. we're going to have things that look like "control groups" https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/dutch-embrace-herd-immunity-as-dire-death-warning-prompts-uk-to-change-course-20200317-p54arv.html
meanwhile, the US did everything wrong.
sending every college student home is a percolation model's dream.
well, unless you compare it to telling every american abroad they have 3 days to get home then jamming them in 6 hour lines at customs to cough on each other.
sending every college student home is a percolation model's dream.
well, unless you compare it to telling every american abroad they have 3 days to get home then jamming them in 6 hour lines at customs to cough on each other.
and now we are locking down businesses. the pay for many stops. drivers, waiters, bartenders, factory workers told to stay home, you name it. but mortgages don't stop, nor rent, nor all manner of business costs
the airlines are empty.
the price tag on this is unprecedented.
the airlines are empty.
the price tag on this is unprecedented.
so, we KNOW the price will be huge. i doubt anyone disagrees about that anymore
but what did we buy? anything?
did we just sell not just the family cow but the family home too for some magic beans so that virtue signalling politicians can look like they are doing something?
but what did we buy? anything?
did we just sell not just the family cow but the family home too for some magic beans so that virtue signalling politicians can look like they are doing something?
this disease spreads best through source infection. pick up food is pretty much just as dangerous as everyone eating out.
yesterday i watched people in ohare airport take off facemasks, touch the chair in terminal C food court to pull it in, then eat a burger.
this is theater
yesterday i watched people in ohare airport take off facemasks, touch the chair in terminal C food court to pull it in, then eat a burger.
this is theater
it's not even good theater.
the "precautions" we are taking are not going to accomplish much of anything. it's all cost with little benefit.
we chose to panic and listen to the hysterical experts instead of the reasonable ones. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/opinion/coronavirus-school-closing.html
the "precautions" we are taking are not going to accomplish much of anything. it's all cost with little benefit.
we chose to panic and listen to the hysterical experts instead of the reasonable ones. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/opinion/coronavirus-school-closing.html
"but experts from john's hopkins said..." well, they said don't close the schools too
like any field, experts disagree
if someone said "an economist said" you'd assume others disagree. so why are we all so willing to pretend that doctors and epidemiologists agree? they don't
like any field, experts disagree
if someone said "an economist said" you'd assume others disagree. so why are we all so willing to pretend that doctors and epidemiologists agree? they don't
calling locking the country down after first setting off the percolation model from hell the "base case" is totally wrong. we never do this. herd immunity is not some speculative idea. it's how we deal with flu and colds every year.
herd immunity working is the base case.
herd immunity working is the base case.
this global panic is very real. panicky humans and the politicians that pander to them are incredibly scary and dangerous
i left PR not for fear of disease, it's barely extant in that latitude
i fled wanda garced and her authoritarian police state lockdown
she's what to fear
i left PR not for fear of disease, it's barely extant in that latitude
i fled wanda garced and her authoritarian police state lockdown
she's what to fear
PR is on lockdown. the police are out rousting people off an empty beach without another human in 100 yards.
it's already WAY too late. we had a zillion spring breakers in. everyone partied in la placita.
locking them down now is meaningless.
but autocrats gonna autocrat
it's already WAY too late. we had a zillion spring breakers in. everyone partied in la placita.
locking them down now is meaningless.
but autocrats gonna autocrat
her actions will harm/kill more puerto ricans than COV will. people can't work. it's a poor island. how are they going to pay rent and feed their families?
this is a nightmare
for every 1% you knock off global GDP, how many millions of human life years do you lose? 45? 70?
this is a nightmare
for every 1% you knock off global GDP, how many millions of human life years do you lose? 45? 70?
those of you trying to account the "human costs" should have heard the fear in my housekeeper's voice about not being able to work and pay bills.
i promised to pay her even while i'm gone because, unlike wanda, i care about what happens to her
everyone will not be so cared for
i promised to pay her even while i'm gone because, unlike wanda, i care about what happens to her
everyone will not be so cared for
who's going to pay the bartenders & waiters that work on tips? the uber drivers?
my driver last night from SLC to PC was scared too. this should still be peak season in a ski town. you need to earn now for the dead spot in april/may
he won't be able to. the mountains closed
my driver last night from SLC to PC was scared too. this should still be peak season in a ski town. you need to earn now for the dead spot in april/may
he won't be able to. the mountains closed
if we could reduce flu 20% every year, it would save 100,000-120,000 human lives.
but it would probably cost 400 million life years in lost GDP.
that would be a massive human loss.
are you so sure that's not what we're doing here?
did you even ask?
but it would probably cost 400 million life years in lost GDP.
that would be a massive human loss.
are you so sure that's not what we're doing here?
did you even ask?
safety is one of those magic words. it makes people shut off the rational parts of their brains
but safety is EXACTLY where we need to be rational
fewer drivers would die if max highway speed was 25mph.
but how many others would die from the economic impact?
but safety is EXACTLY where we need to be rational
fewer drivers would die if max highway speed was 25mph.
but how many others would die from the economic impact?
when this is all said and done and "leaders" want to claim that their heroic and costly actions saved lives, there needs to be an accounting.
look at the places that did not lock down.
see how they fared.
then count the economic cost and what that cost meant in lives.
look at the places that did not lock down.
see how they fared.
then count the economic cost and what that cost meant in lives.
the future is uncertain, but my bet is that those pushing lockdown will have caused orders of magnitude more damage than they averted.
perhaps you disagree. perhaps you'll do different math.
fine.
i do not demand that you agree with me, only that you think for real.
perhaps you disagree. perhaps you'll do different math.
fine.
i do not demand that you agree with me, only that you think for real.
do the math. account for cost and benefit in a real way and do not omit the losses in life that stem from economic dislocation and wealth and innovation forgone.
it matters.
because governments WILL try this again.
and when they do, only an informed populace is a bulwark.
it matters.
because governments WILL try this again.
and when they do, only an informed populace is a bulwark.
before you dismiss this as "gov't knows best" take a look at the track record of central banking as it has tried command/control the business cycle & how that's working out
governments don't suddenly get smart/capable around diseases
they do the same dumb things they always do
governments don't suddenly get smart/capable around diseases
they do the same dumb things they always do
and only we can hold them to account and prevent the bloom of such statist desires into the full flowering of authoritarian government meddling with markets and lives and livelihoods.
stay safe.
think well.
make good choices.
stay safe.
think well.
make good choices.
