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I just thought of a good analogy for what's bothering me about some of the #COVID19 analysis. A while back we ran a blog post about how modern house fires will burn up a house in just 3 mins, because of the open way homes are now designed & the materials https://theprepared.com/blog/fire-is-one-reason-to-practice-bugging-out-in-under-three-minutes/
There's nothing different about the /fire/ itself between the 1920's & today. Fire is the same as it's always been. It's the materials & room layout that have changed.
So much of virus talk right now is focused on the /virus/ -- the CFR & disease progression & such.
So much of virus talk right now is focused on the /virus/ -- the CFR & disease progression & such.
But what about the systems the virus interacts with? That's why I think this business of supply chains & hospital capacity & JIT inventory in stores & medical debt & sick leave etc. is where 90% of the story is, just like the houses are the main factor in house fire burn time.
Your level of pessimism/optimism re: #COVID19 depends less on your evaluation of the virus & more on your sense of interlocking social systems the virus will interact with. This fits w/ my observation that ppl who study social systems are more alarmed than ppl who study viruses.
It's why I keep having (& seeing others have) the same convo w/ some academic biology/med types. The academic points out the 2% mortality rate & says, "chill out, your odds of dying are low." Anyone who knows how actual hospitals work reacts w/ "
15% hospitalization rate = 
"
15% hospitalization rate = "
